Managerial Settings- Base running, Base stealing and bunting

[STEVEPONEDAL]

Any school of thought on the pros and cons of using these various settings?

I have had them set on "very aggressive" and I am becoming concerned that this is costing me runs.

Any good experiences out there?

Thanks

Steve

[pedakrla]

I too have found that "very aggressive" costs me some runs. For example, I have had guys thrown out trying to steal 3rd with nobody out, heart of the order coming up, early in the game, and I'm behind.

I'm not crazy about bunting to begin with--in this game, almost any time someone bunts other than the pitcher it's a waste, IMO. HAL has had my #2 hitter bunt in the top of the 1st after a leadoff walk--even with bunt set to "extra conservative"!

Don't have any specific examples of "very aggressive" baserunning costing me, but I think the results are probably in line with "very aggressive" stealing. Too much risk.

I haven't been playing this game long (only on 2nd team now), but here's my 2 cents: Never use "very aggressive" anything. Set bunt to "extra conservative" always, unless you have a team with terrible hitting. Adjust baserunning and base stealing between aggressive, normal, and conservative depending on the park, opposing catcher's arm, and opposing outfielders' arms.

Most importantly, read the game summaries very carefully to identify cases where HAL did something you didn't want him to do, and then adjust your future settings accordingly.

Hope that helps a little.

[STEVEPONEDAL]

Those are good thoughts. I think I am going to take a run at conservative managrial setings and just rely on the individual player cards.

I am on my second eighties team and 3rd overall. So I am a newbie as well.

Kind of addicting isn't it.

[pedakrla]

Addicting ..... and aggravating. 5 days ago I was 32-22 and feeling good. Since then I've gone 2-13 and dropped into last place in the division. Oh well, only 1 game behind in the wild card race.....

[maligned]

Here's a summary of the baseball theory that is leading GMs like Theo Epstein and Billy Beane to almost completely abandon bunting and basestealing:

1.You can make an accurate prediction of how many runs any team will score by multiplying its OBP times its Total Bases. This will be a pretty good estimate with all teams.
2.You can make this prediction even more accurately by figuring in extra values for bases earned through stolen bases, walks, HBP, etc. and extra outs recorded through caught stealing, sacrifices, double plays, etc.
3.This type of projection has led to some very, very accurate formulas being derived that tell us exactly how the value of an extra base from a stolen base or sacrifice compares with the value of a base earned when a hitter singles, doubles, etc.
4. In general, extra bases earned from stolen bases and sacrifices are only HALF as valuable as bases earned through normal hits.
5. The outs you give up from being caught stealing and making sacrifices far outweigh the final value of bases you earn when you are successful.

In strat, if I want to know how efficient someone's offense is, all I have to do is multiply their OBP*SLG*AtBats. (This is the same as OBP*TotalBases). Then, if the value you get is higher than the actual runs a team has scored, you know the offense is inefficient. If the value is lower than the actual runs a team has scored, the offense is being efficient. With the inefficient case, all I have to do is look at the caught stealing and sacrifice lines on the stat pages to see why the team's offense is being stifled.
In this live ball era, you are just wasting too many outs by being aggressive with stealing and bunting. It feels like it should be the right thing to be aggressive. The problem is that it's much like shooting too many 3-pointers in basketball or throwing deep too many times in football. Aggression is nice, but wisdom beats overaggression every time.

Finally, with baserunning: I haven't really figured out how HAL determines his different levels. The problem with conservative is that HAL won't try to go home enough. This is the one base that needs to be sought after aggressively. For example: If there are two outs, and you have a 40% chance of scoring from second base on a single, you should probably try to go. Your next hitter probably has less than a .400 OBP, which means you have a better chance of scoring the run being aggressive than you do of the next hitter extending the inning. Most of the outfield throwing situations are going home, not to third (and never to second). I set my baserunning to normal, almost never get thrown out, and regularly score runs from first on doubles and second on singles. If I'm on conservative, I almost always get stopped after one base on singles and two bases on doubles. I missed out on numerous runs I could have scored until I realized how this was working.

Just my two cents.

[STEVEPONEDAL]

More like $200 worth. I like the objectivity of your calculation. It will be interesting to see if with the increased steroid testing if SBs and Bunts become mor useful.

Thanks

Steve

[maligned]

Good point. The more league slugging percentages come down, the more useful (or less detrimental) they will be.

[pedakrla]

Absolutely. The 1969 Strat game may require a different approach than, say, the 2005 game.

[geekor]

remember those level just play the percentages...

I believe normal means they will attempt it if there is a 70% or better change of stealing/h&R/etc. If you set it to aggressive, it means you try it when the chance is worse than 70%, that is why I always set all my settings to conservative or very conservative. I don't mind stealing, but aint no way I want them trying it is they have less than 70% chance to make it.

[JAYDINGESS1]

spone - why would you set your settings on normal with a catcher with a +2 arm? or why would you set your settings on aggressive with a catcher with a -3 arm? or same thing with the opposing outfield with runner settings. if you are going to coast with a team, use the normal settings, safer. if you are going to manage your teams, then set based upon your opponent that nite.