Stealing question

[Knerrpool]

Say two players have the exact same stealing ratings. After 63 games, one player has 15 steals and 11 caught stealing. The other player has 16 steals and 2 caught stealing. Is it just randomness that the first player has such a lower steal % or are there other factors that come into play regarding the steal (such as who is hitting behind him, etc.) Thanks.

[PotKettleBlack]

Rating as in AA-A-B-C-D-E or rating as in *3-7/- (20-16) or 2-5/10,12 (15-5)?

The Letter grades are kind of like guidelines. The numbers are the real meat of it.

I don't believe that players batting behind them in the order matter. I think it's also possible that speed comes into the equation.

[Knerrpool]

Yes, I meant the same detailed rating (they both also have the same letter rating). They also both have the same running/speed number, so that is not a factor either.

[PotKettleBlack]

Luck. I'd check box scores to see if one is stealing more often against low hold/low arm batteries and the other is stealing more against high hold/arm batteries. Or the bases they are stealing.

[Neil Toomey]

Although, the player hitting behind the baserunner can have an effect if he is set to hit & run more, or the team setting for hit & run is set to aggressive.

[tjbraun]

So I have a general question for base stealing. I did some math on all the base stealing data for the 2010 set and found that 2 of the best stealers this year are actually rated as a "B" Any ideas where I screwed up? I mean here are the top 3 steals guys according to my analysis:
Player 1 - (B) *2-8,11,12/- (20-16)
Player 2 - (B) *2-6,11,12/- (19-15)
Player 3 - (AA) *2-6,12/- (19-15)
So how on earth is a guy that is 20-16 only a B compared to the 19-15 guy who also doesn't get a lead on 7,8 and 11?

I have Player 1 stealing 2nd successfully 96.1% independent of defense, pitcher, catcher, Player 2 - 85.0% and player 3 - 83.9%

That seems extremely odd to me that Player 1 wouldn't be at least A and more likely AA...I mean that rating is better than Vince Coleman's 1986 card: (AAA) *2-7,11/- (20-16).

Thoughts?

[artie4121]

Sorry to hit this so late, but to me, you just need to ignore the "letter" grade for stealing in this SOM game or advanced.

If you look at the pure numbers, the "20" means that when he gets a good lead, that basestealer can't really be caught. He is safe on 1-20 split cards. Even when he DOESN'T get a good lead (the second number) he makes it 80% of the time.

Player 1 has 29 (out of 36) dice chances of getting a good lead.
Player 2 has 18
Player 3 has 16

Player 1 will be safe 100% of the time with a good lead.
Player 2 will be safe 95%
Player 3 will be safe 95%

Player 1 will be safe 80% of the time with a good lead
Player 2 will be safe 75%
Player 3 will be safe 75%.

NOTE: This is majorly impacted by the pitcher hold rating and the catcher throwing. The above numbers are simply RAW with neutral defense.

So yes, Player 1 is the far superior basestealer.