Generating Runs: Power, BA or Speed

[MtheB]

Early observations:
With so much strong starting pitching, ERAS, hits etc. are way down compared to ATG II.
As there are fewer hits, it seems at least at this point, that speed is not as strong factor compared to power.--if you are only getting 7 hits in a game, you better hope that there are some HRs there.
Already seeing this in how drafting has changed, particularly with LH power being drafted higher (as there is less of it and with Yankee Stadium HR 1-14 for lefties....)--in early drafts, McCovey and Powell were not always drafted, lately they are always drafted and high at that.
If we only had several Eddie Mathews LH 3B power hitting type in this game.... :-)

[Play By The Rules]

Taking it further, I think that there's a real shortage of BA in this platform.

Having OBP is still important, but I have a couple teams with great OBP but BA down around .200- it's important to make sure those high OBP players you get can hit the ball too.

Learning the hard way.

[RiggoDrill]

There are definitely some weird cards out there with VERY high walk totals - not really sure how to value those guys.

[childsmwc]

Intuitively in an environment where there are fewer hits, baserunners, etc. then the value of a walk is diminished. The act of getting on is not what scores the run, but instead it is the act of hitting the ball hard to put yourself in scoring position and move runners along that generates runs. (the act of just getting on base, is a significant factor to scoring runs in 200X and ATG). This environment would shift more emphasis on the total base aspect of a runs created formula, since those events move runners around, which is what is scarce in 1969. The value of Home runs related to other events should also go up, since batters are more likely to be stranded in 1969 than other sets.

Now while I may agree with this idea conceptually, I do not necessarily agree that the 1969 game dynamics are significantly different enough from other seasons, to require any significant changes in my RC model. However, once I get a few full seasons logged, I can start seeing if my model effectively projects runs within an acceptable range of actual runs scored (It does for all the 200X games and ATG). If it consistently over estimates runs or underestimates runs for the 1969 game, then I will reevaluate the value of walks and other events. Until then I am going to stick with the values I know and have tested.

Bbrool

[JayJelinek]

There is a similar thread to this in the Strategy forum which caught my attention. The discussion about different ways to craft effective offenses in the 1969 context really catches my interest; my Strat background includes a LOT of play in the 1970s, which dropped off while I played the game of life for 25 years, and is just now rekindling. So I think my offensive thinking may be stuck in the 1970s.

I am struck by how slanted the offensive strategies with the 200x seasons are towards OBP (primarily) and HR % (secondarily). While high OBP is a good strategy in the 200x context, in the 1969 context, as Bbrool points out, it is not intuitively obvious as a good strategy. Bbrool also points out the increased value of offensive events which move baserunners along as well as putting them on. That's true...as well as increased value of the ability of baserunners, once on, to move themselves over (steals, taking the extra base, etc). So the base advancement factor can be managed not only with BA (and 2b/3b power), but with OBP when that OBP is combined with good speed of the people getting on.

I'm thinking that in 1969 there will be opportunities to craft different effective offenses in diverse ways. Slugging teams, BA teams, and roadrunner teams should all be competitive when done right. At least that is what I am hoping; that there is no set formula for 1969 which works as a universal offensive cookbook.

My first 1969 team here started out 20-4 and I thought I had caught lightning in a bottle. They're down to 35-31 and sliding, so I've got a lot to learn along with everyone else about 1969. But I wouldn't want it any other way, and hope that the set offensive formula in 1969 remains a bit elusive to us all.