Late-season pitching advice

[DosCarlos]

I may just be paranoid because I haven't been in first place this late in the season since my first online strato game (back in Ought One), but two of my high-priced starters have gone drastically downhill recently. I'm wondering if I should stick it out and hope they bounce back, or look for other options. I'm 123 games into the season and have a two-game division lead. There are quite a few high-value starters that the league hasn't tested yet. Here is a link to my team:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=74966
The pitchers about whom I'm concerned are Guidry (6.55 ERA, 1.77 WHIP over the last 10 games) and Saberhagen (6.75, 1.62). Prior to this slide, both had been ranked in the top 12 in ERA.
Any suggestions?

[Moodywoody]

Absolutely keep them. They have been great for you this late into the season, so odds are they are fine pitching cards. You will definitely lose if you panic and dump them.

[Jimmy_C]

Hey DosCarlos...ride Guidry and Sabes like the horses they are. I noticed that Lopes is your 2nd baseman and Wilfong played shortstop (YIKES) in Guidry's last start. Defense like that will hurt any pitchers stats.

[yak1407]

With any ptichers, I find you can't look at the cumulative stats, you need to look at the them game by game. One or two bad outings in a 10 game span can seriously skew their WHIP.
So over their last 10 starts, how many would you classify as great, how many good and how many bad. If they have been more good than bad, then they are keepers.
However, I would be concerned that both Guidry and Saberhagen are giving up more than a hit an inning. I find that is never a good sign.
On the other hand, you don't have a lot of cash. If Scott (wow what a year) and Bosio can keep winning more than they lose, and Guidry and Saberhagen go .500 you should be alright.

[durantjerry]

I was just looking at my last March Madness team in the Astrodome. I was surprised to see D Sutton had his .99 WHIP year and was only able to post a 4.04 ERA. My team was 1st in pitching also with an ERA over 4.00. Some of these leagues are very much hitting leagues and even good cards can get rocked. I know Sabes gives up the longball and any lefty can get rocked in a hitting park. I think it's better to stick with the devil you know rather than taking a chance with the one you don't.

[yak1407]

I often find ERA bears no relationship to how well a pitcher is pitching.
To me, the key numbers are wins and losses. I also look at hits to innings pitched and walks to strikeouts, but if the pitcher is winning, it overcomes a lot of faults.
A case in point was a recent Craig Swan. Turns out I had his '78, best year. That year, he gave up less than a hit an innings, had a K to walk ratio of about 2.2 to 1, and a 1.07 WHIP along with 2.43 ERA.
For me, he gave up more than a hit an innings, had a K to walk ratio of about 1.5 to one, an ERA of 4.50 and a WHIP of 1.46.
But, in 23 starts he was 14 and 4. Based on his stats, I should have let him go. But he kept winning.
And that is the bottom line.

[DosCarlos]

Well Guidry pitched seven shutout innings last night, so that helps his numbers a bit, but he's had quite a few rough outings recently. Including last night's game, Guidry has two very good outings in his last ten, 4 mediocre-to-okay starts, and four terrible games. Saberhagen has a couple very good starts but 5 just plain bad starts, plus another where he gave up six runs but just nine hits and no walks in eight innings. On the plus-side, all four of my starting pitchers are in the top twelve in HR/9 IP, although that may be partially due to Royals Stadium. As for the defense behind them, it's usually pretty strong. Lopes is the weak link, but Bowa's been injured in the last two series, and he's now out for the next nine games, so I may need to scrounge some cash together for a better back-up.

[DosCarlos]

Guidry is 5-4 in his last 10 starts, Sabes is 3-5. The way my offense is going, it may make up for some pitching deficiencies. Both are giving up a ton of hits, but Saberhagen rarely walks anyone, while Guidry walks more.

[yak1407]

Guidry is winning for you, so that says it all.
Saberhagen's card is very attractive, but I've never had any success with him. My last team I held on to him for half a season when he went 3-9 with a 1.40+ WHIP. Dealt him for Rogers who went 11-3.
He may not give up a lot of walks, but you surrender more runs with hits than you do with walks. It takes four walks to score a run, whereas give up a home and you have a run in one hit.
With the bases loaded, a walk brings in a run whereas a single can in some cases clear the bases.
I'd rather have a guy who gives up less than a hit an innings and walks 150 while striking out 300. Because, the strike out is the ultimate out. Runners can score on ground outs and fly outs, but, barring an unusual X result, no-one scores or advances on a strikeout.
That's probably why Guidry is winning for you. He's getting roughed up but also getting some key strikeouts.
The only way I'll use Saberhagen again is if he ends up on my team as a replacement for my original draft choice. And then only to see if HAL gives you players based on performance or on closest salary.

[DosCarlos]

Thanks for the advice. I'm leaning toward keeping Guidry. Saberhagen's a boyhood idol of mine, but he's not getting righties out. I think I'm going to give him at least one more start, but if I make a switch, these are some of the options I can afford:
Jose Guzman, Mike Norris, Matt Young, Floyd Bannister, Mike Witt, Frank Tanana, Scott Sanderson, Kevin Gross, David Palmer, Storm Davis, and Jim Beattie.
I'm particularly interested in Sanderson, as it looks like he has several solid cards.