The Secret Formula: Final Installment

[J-Pav]

Here is an eight team list of $80 million league CHAMPS teams, taken out-of-sample (ie, after I first wrote about the Secret Formula back in August):

The [b:683a0e467c]CHAMPS[/b:683a0e467c] Secret Formula:

1. [i:683a0e467c]$32 million on pitching, $48 million on hitting (or thereabouts).[/i:683a0e467c]

The last eight CHAMPS teams also spent $31 million on pitching, $49 million on hitting (on average). On average, they had just over $18 million on starters, and just under $13 million on relievers. This is precisely as last reported. However, as an interesting aside, the range was [i:683a0e467c]much[/i:683a0e467c] wider this time ($10.86-24.32 for starters, $7.59-21.32 for relievers).

2. [i:683a0e467c]Spend for "1s" and "2s" at SS, CF and 2B.[/i:683a0e467c]

Also exactly as previously reported, these eight teams had 1s and 2s exclusively at SS (1.88 avg); 1s and 2s exclusively in CF (1.75 avg) and 1s, 2s and (two) 3s at 2B (1.88 avg).

3. [i:683a0e467c]To win in '05, you must get the most mileage out of your pitching.[/i:683a0e467c]

In this particular sample, the pitching seems to have come down. I've noticed more teams giving a go at the high-powered offense in a hitters park strategy, so maybe this is reflected in the pitching stats.

3A. [i:683a0e467c]Low WHIP (leaning towards lower total bases, I argue)[/i:683a0e467c].

The average WHIP was 1.38, up from 1.30. The hits per inning pitched moved up to 0.99, from 0.95.

3B. [i:683a0e467c]Low ERA (you must finish well in runs allowed)[/i:683a0e467c]

The average ERA of 4.41 was up from an even 4.00. The average place finish for earned runs allowed slipped to top 5 (from top 3 earlier), with the offense moving up accordingly to almost top 4 on average (from middle of the pack previously).

4. [i:683a0e467c]Players suited to your park [/i:683a0e467c]

Of the eight teams, there were all unique ballparks (Fenway, US Cellular, Bank One, Pro Player, Minute Maid, Safeco, Great American and Ameriquest). Where are all the Sheas??? The teams again still average a 90-72 record, as previously reported.

[b:683a0e467c]CASE STUDY[/b:683a0e467c]

After I wrote the first Secret Formula thread, I went out and drafted a team I cleverly called [i:683a0e467c][b:683a0e467c]The Secret Formula[/b:683a0e467c][/i:683a0e467c]:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/team/team_other.html?user_id=18822

This was my attempt to sample some of my own cooking, as posted here in the threads.

From the "I Love Me" section, I'm happy to report that this Shea team finished first in offense (with 936 runs scored) and first in pitching (3.86 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 0.89 HIP) and posted 273 net runs, and a 100-62 record. This team stormed out of the gate with a 50-14 start.

HAL loves me a little less than I love me, though. I went 50-48 after the hot start, and HAL gave 21-9 Ted Lilly (3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 0.71 HIP) a ten game injury with a big lead in the 7th inning of game 160. I play [b:683a0e467c]PBTR[/b:683a0e467c] in the semis next week, so my karma definitely just got a bit thinner.

The four playoff teams finished 1, 3, 4 and 5 in runs scored and 1, 2, 4 and 8 in earned runs allowed.

These four teams spent $18.77 on starters, $11.02 on relievers ([b:683a0e467c]PBTR[/b:683a0e467c]s effective low budget $5 pen brought this figure lower) for a total spent on pitching just under $30 million. Average ERA was 4.29 (vs 4.77 league average), average WHIP 1.34 (league average 1.44), average HIP 0.97 (rest of the league averaged 1.03).

Defense? What else, all 1s and 2s, with one 3 at 2B.

I may just be a stater of the unspoken obvious, but it seems to me that if you're [i:683a0e467c]hanging around[/i:683a0e467c] these few core ideas, you stand a dramatically improved chance of finding success in terms of winning percentage.

This is not the be all end all, [i:683a0e467c]context[/i:683a0e467c] plays probably even a much larger role than I've given it credit for. That is, the ability to assess your opponents after the waiver draft and adjust your team accordingly. One manager put together a 94 win season with $18.45 spent on total pitching ($10.86 starters/$7.59 relievers) in a pitchers park. My attempts to duplicate this have been met with [i:683a0e467c]not anywhere nearly[/i:683a0e467c] as effective results. I've been hanging out recently in that $18 starters/$13 relievers range with pretty good success.

So what does any of this mean? In my opinion, you probably want to avoid extreme teams (sub $20 million pitching teams and $40 million pitching teams) unless you understand precisely what you're getting yourself into. These teams were big winners last year, but much less so this year.

Give some thought to your middle infield and centerfield defense. [b:683a0e467c]All 21[/b:683a0e467c] CHAMPS teams I looked at had 1s and 2s at SS and CF, with a handful of 3s at 2B. 21/21 is a pretty statistically significant number in my book, but I have to admit I'm completely motivated to get a 3-3-3 defense team going!!

In the end, like Bill James said, it's all about net runs. Build a pitching staff with an eye toward keeping your ERA around 4.00. Build an offense with an eye toward scoring 6 runs per game. 324 net runs will win you alot of games. You probably won't achieve this stat, but the closer you are the better. Again, avoid the extremes. A 3.00 ERA is terrific, but you'll likely have to use more salary to achieve it and if you're scoring only 3.50 runs per game with the remaining salary, your record will reflect it in the end.

I hope these diatribes are helpful for some of the newer players out there. And I hope some folks will chime in with what they're observing.

Again, my two cents.

[bigmahon]

Had a feeling I might see this bumped up today. :wink:

[J-Pav]

:D

[J-Pav]

[b:f4679d5a9e]Aray0113:[/b:f4679d5a9e]

Bad link. Go to your league statistics page, click on your team, then cut and paste the link on top. You'll see an ID number at the end of the link identifying your team.

[J-Pav]

[b:e0340fe51b]Aray0113:[/b:e0340fe51b]

First off, I'm not a real big fan of the "help my team" threads. It's your $25, so you should be doing everything you can to figure things out as best you can on your own. Unfortunately, a lot of tuition goes into figuring this game out. When you look at the top managers, they all play a [b:e0340fe51b]LOT[/b:e0340fe51b]. There's really no getting around this.

That being said, you seem to be on your way to some serious trouble with this team. I'll assume you're fairly new to the game, so I'll offer up some food for thought.

You've overspent on starters, and you only want four * starters. Zambrano and Clemens is plenty enough. Look for some cheap match up starters, particularly lefties, who will do well in Shea. You need to drop $6-7 million from your pitching salary, but you should likely keep the top two and bottom four.

Offensively, Shea favors lefty power (OPS). You have only a little. Keep A-Rod at short, Castillo at 2B and Drew in RF. (This is a very solid core to begin with!) Trade Tejada for LH power. You need to fill six positions with guys in the $2-5 million range. Think OBP wherever you can. If you don't have seven starters with real life season OBPs over .350, you need to do some rearranging. You probably need three more lefty sluggers, too. The message boards are plentiful with bargain player lists to consult for this.

A quick glance at your division foes...wow. Lots of strong lefties coming to your park. A-Rod will be very useful here, but he'll need some help. Your division rivals all built what appear to be very solid pitchers park teams. You've got some work ahead of you!!

It looks like you had a very nice original draft. Use that core to build on.

Good luck with your team! Do everything you can to learn from how they perform and carry the knowledge into your next effort.

[Play By The Rules]

...and although I'm happy for me, I'm sorry to see him out. More than proving this "secret formula" what J-Pav proves is that to win in 2005 you have to skillfully use and backup the high quality injury players.

Of course I'm banking on some of those boys going down this week. He's probably banking on my cheap pen blowing the games late. But I have my secret weapons Mr. Smith and Halsey...

I look for it to go to 5, where I have the advantage of having Schmidt pitch for a second time in the series.

And, I am the wildcard in the same division...

Good luck J-Pav.

[J-Pav]

The road goes thru Shea. My guys will be there! 8)