by bomp helium » Sat Sep 23, 2006 5:02 pm
hello palmtana:
I realize the importance of EBH (slugging%) but I still feel OBP is the single most important stat...
look at it this way:
Batter A hits four singles in a game...Batter B is 1-4 with a home run...
Both players have four total bases in four plate appearances...so the slugging% is equal...and the EBH factor leans towards the guy with the home run...
but what this formula does not account for are the OUTS...Batter A recorded NO outs while batter B recorded THREE outs...
and outs are paramount...you only get 27 per game...I believe in preserving outs as a priority...so I always sort by OBP and then look for a high SLG among those hitters...
whenever I move towards SLG and away from OBP, my teams seem to suffer...even at Coors, where most of my 2005 teams played...strangely, it has also been the pattern that when I move away from OBP in favor of DEFENSE, the teams suffer...(of course, that could very well be a "Coors quirk")...
of course, my data is taken from a low sampling (maybe 40 teams) but the patterns seem consistent...interesting, because my experience flies in the face of the "secret formula"...
The math is there to back this up, and I've demonstrated it on other threads, but I'm largely (completely!) ignored...it's hard to swim upstream against tradition...I respect the "secret formula", but I would and have suggested that there are in fact other ways to build a successful team...
thanks for all you guys' advice on this thread...I won't rebuild this team (post-waiver rebuilds can be disasterous and depressing), but I'll take your feedback into consideration when building my next team...
I think I might stay with Catalanotto as my DH vs. RHP...he's cheap and his clutch rating is very impressive...I've found that the combo of high OBP at the top of the order and high clutch in the middle seems to produce a lot of runs...
as for pitching, I'm going with a four-man rotation...I'm going to try Escobar as my setup man vs. RHP...I agree that I need a better third starter (Martinez and Blanton are solid, and Moyer is an appealing value, but I could do better than Freddie Garcia)...but there's so little to choose from on the waiver wire (unless somebody dumps)...
good luck to all of you...thanks again for the feedback...
george