The Secret Formula: Final Installment

[J-Pav]

[b:813cd0bb22]Aray0113:[/b:813cd0bb22]

Somewhere in here is something called the [i:813cd0bb22]Newbie Advice Thread[/i:813cd0bb22]. [b:813cd0bb22]Luckyman[/b:813cd0bb22] and a lot of the other better players compiled a bunch of helpful hints for beginners like yourself. Go to the well and drink deeply, the online game and the strategy involved is much, much different than the boardgame we played as kids!

Strat-O is simple, but it is definitely not easy. That's why we're all addicts here. :D

[STEVEPONEDAL]

This is very helpful. Thanks

[bigmahon]

I had a little extra time today, so I decided to see if my 9 championship teams corroborated the evidence presented so well by [b:ba6fb13f11]J-Pav[/b:ba6fb13f11]. And man, did it ever! :shock:

Here is my data, point for point:

1) "Spend $32m on pitching, and $48m on hitting"

My average spend was [b:ba6fb13f11]$32.54m[/b:ba6fb13f11] on pitching, and [b:ba6fb13f11]$47.21m[/b:ba6fb13f11] on hitting.

2) "Use 1s and 2s at 2B, SS, and CF"

Only once did I used a 3 at any of these positions (Loretta at 2B in a hitters park). The rest were all 1s and 2s. For me, CF seemed to be the most important position, as I used a 1 there on 8 of the 9 teams. I had the opposite tendency in the middle infield, using a 1 twice and a 2 six times at 2B, and using a 1 once and a 2 eight times at SS.

3) "Get the most value out of your pitching"

Not exactly sure what this means. :oops: I assume it refers to innings pitched per dollar spent (i.e. get more than 40 innings out of K-Rod). Don't have much to say on this, but I will say I routinely go with 3 stud relievers and let Wagner get 50 saves in 60 innings of work. :)

4) "Strive for low WHIP"

My average WHIP on the 9 teams was [b:ba6fb13f11]1.30[/b:ba6fb13f11], which I believe is in line with J-Pav's original sample.

5) "Strive for low ERA"

My average ERA on the 9 teams was [b:ba6fb13f11]4.06[/b:ba6fb13f11], which is also very close to the figure in the original sample.

So it appears that Mr. Pav has indeed uncovered the "Secret Formula"! :shock: In truth, much of this "theory" is not new, and has in fact long been considered "best practice" by many vets. But many thanks to J. for putting it all in one place, and for giving some statistical foundation to the theories.

Now if I can just get J's team to stay out of my face in TSN 8143. :roll: :mrgreen:

[J-Pav]

[b:c585a266eb]Big:[/b:c585a266eb]

Thanks for jumping into the mix!

A little clarification on pitching...

Points 4 and 5 are actually 3A and 3B. Regarding Point 3, getting the most value out of your pitching, what I was trying to say is this:

Wins and losses are determined by the pythagorean projection (that I think Bill James first discussed), and which can be calculated at a site like Diamonddope.com. The long and short of it is [i:c585a266eb]net[/i:c585a266eb] runs wins games.

Since your offense isn't gonna average 8 runs per game while your defense yields 2, you need to find the most realistic balance to keep them apart. In a pitchers park, a $30 million pitching staff can easily go around 4.00 runs allowed. But your offense suffers some of the consequences. The $50 million in salary in a pitchers park might only get you say 4.5 runs per game. That will get you 90 [i:c585a266eb]forecasted[/i:c585a266eb] wins, but it's easier said than done. HAL often cheats managers out of their pythagorean entitlement by sucking away some wins.

So the value part of the equation considers your park, your division foes parks and the league balance as well. In my opinion, the best way to increase your pythagorean spread is the unbalanced park (Shea & Minute Maid, plus a few others), but I don't think this will come as a revelation to anybody. You can also do it by building a better mousetrap, ie yours is the best designed Coors team in a division with four Coors (or other hitters parks).

Depending on the make-up of the league, getting the most value out of your $30-32 million in pitching is too relative to be specific. You can have a 4.50 ERA, in US Cellular, and still be third in runs allowed in your league. In a pitchers park dominated league, 4.50 might find you in 9th. The choice of the word [i:c585a266eb]value[/i:c585a266eb] is to say "finish high in pitching (runs allowed)" however you have to do it, within the context of your strategy, given the set of circumstances that define your league.

After saying all that, though, my out of sample list shows the offense now catching up to the pitching. So I guess the word [i:c585a266eb]"balance"[/i:c585a266eb] best sums things up now. Generally I've always found that if I'm top 6 in runs scored and top 6 in runs allowed, my team is "in the hunt."

3A and 3B is breaking down "runs allowed." Low WHIP, low ERA. My argument is that this year, low HIP matters more (to me, anyway). Lilly, Leiter, Oliver Perez...guys like this. So I try to squeeze blood from the pitching stone by giving up as few hits as I can while conceding more walks to do so (you can't have it all). My solid defense creates more double-plays than average, so I don't mind giving up first base more if it means less guys visiting the other bases.

I hope that explains things better.

And thanks again for jumping in. I was hoping to create a discussion, not deliver a monologue, so we could all learn more from each other.

P.S. The [i:c585a266eb][b:c585a266eb]Pain Train[/b:c585a266eb][/i:c585a266eb] has left Port Huron, en route Chicago. Maybe this team is finding itself after tripping out of the gate!

8)

[bigmahon]

I'll notify the authorities to expect the arrival of the [b:f3a291925a]Pain Train[/b:f3a291925a]. I know the [b:f3a291925a]Blues[/b:f3a291925a] will be waiting. :wink:

[stevep107]

Hi J-Pav:

I've read this thread with interest and I agree that you've made a lot of good points here about the ingredients of a successful team.

My first Wrigley team (The Omnicient Lithovores) have managed to make it to the finals in the same league as the now legendary "Secret Formula" :lol: . Am looking forward to playing the winner of you and PBTR in the finals.

Good luck to both of you.

Regards,
Steve

[ANDYCOCHRANE]

Any other similarities in those cahmpionship teams mentione above? Clutch at a particular place in the line up? Particulalry high OBP anywhere? Lots of BPHR's anywhere? More RH Hitters or LH hitters? Any great amount of Even or Reverse balanced players?

[J-Pav]

[b:23d27e96c0]Stevep107:[/b:23d27e96c0]

Thanks! I managed to let [b:23d27e96c0]PBTR[/b:23d27e96c0] off the mat and we go to game five tonite. I'm glad to be at home, but I'm hurtin' with Lilly on the shelf and Villone starting against Schmidt. Only destiny can save me now.

We have played in a couple of leagues together now and your [i:23d27e96c0]Lithovores[/i:23d27e96c0] have been a very solid team. When HAL switched on the parity governor on my team, he took the brakes off of yours. Your team was red hot down the stretch, a well deserved Strat-O credit. I'd really like for them to come play in Shea with that hard righty lineup, but that one's out of my hands until after tonite...

Couldn't help but notice, $17.90 SP, $12.49 RP ($30.39 total), 4.12 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 0.93 HIP, 1s at 2B and CF with a solid 2 at SS...looks like all the ingredients are there...

Hopefully we'll be talking more... :wink:

Thanks again!

[b:23d27e96c0]Shankly 81:[/b:23d27e96c0]

I personally don't even consider clutch when selecting a team, it's just one of those things that's off my radar. I will give it a second thought sometimes with regard to my subs, and where to put someone in my line-up on a rare occasion. But other than that, I hardly consider it.

I do however spend an inordinate amount of time obsessing on OBP. I like it everywhere in the line-up, and generally, as a personal rule of thumb, I like to have at minimum seven guys in the line-up with real season OBP over .350. It doesn't always work out that way, but that's where I'm trying to get to, and it's probably true for most of the better vets as well.

With regard to hitters, I build for my park and generally stagger my RH and LH hitters. This may just be a silly superstition, but I'm not gonna give HAL the chance to whiff Edmonds, Bonds and Helton in the 9th with three pitchers card rolls by Jamie Walker (or much, much worse).

Balance is just a function of the guys I like (personally). I don't give much thought to it except to say if I'm much over 10R on offense, I will look for some lefty killers to bring the total down. Pitching wise, reverses are nice to have wherever you can get them.

Hope that helps some.

[stevep107]

J-Pav:

I'm not looking forward to playing in Shea. The Lithovores were 56-25 at home and a pathetic 37-44 on the road.

Against "The Secret Formula", my team was 5-1 at home and 1-5 on the road. Against PBTR's team "Morning Joggers" (where do we come up with these names?!?), my team was 3-3 at home and 4-2 on the road. Maybe my team stands a better chance playing in Safeco than Shea? Who knows.

[J-Pav]

We'll see in a few more hours...

...to be continued. 8)