Why isn't this team scoring more runs?

[Yellow_Dog]

Hi all,

I'm in the Kingdome (which I've only used once or twice before). My team has been hitting pretty well, but not scoring very many runs. My pitching has been awful, but that's not what I'm worried about (for this post). I feel like my team should be scoring more runs and winning more games.

My team's offensive production:

1st in HRs
4th in BA
Tied 1st in SLG
1st in OBP
1st in OPS
7th in Runs Scored :( :( :(

I've set my team to conservative in Hit and Run and Bunting, and have not attempted either all season. I previously had base running and stealing at extra conservative, but recently changed stealing to conservative (I'm 22-32 on the season in steals), and base running to normal.

Here is a link to league's team statistics:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/league/stats.html?user_id=79075

Here is a link to the team:
http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=79075

My usual lineup vs. lefties
1. Butler, Brett (L) CF
2. Clark, Jack (R) RF
3. Mattingly, Don (L) 1B
4. Schmidt, Mike (R) 3B
5. Easler, Mike (L) DH
6. Canseco, Jose (R) LF
7. White, Frank (R) 2B
8. Laudner, Tim (R) C
9. Schofield, Dick C. (R) SS

My usual lineup vs. righties
1. Butler, Brett (L) CF
2. Mattingly, Don (L) 1B
3. Schmidt, Mike (R) 3B
4. Canseco, Jose (R) LF
5. Easler, Mike (L) DH
6. Clark, Jack (R RF
7. White, Frank (R) 2B
8. Smalley Jr., Roy (S) SS
9. Virgil, Ozzie Jr. (R) C

Any comments or suggestions? Is it just bad luck, lineup configuration, or manager settings? I'm not happy about my 8-9 hitters, but the team is still producing good offensive numbers with them in the lineup.

[Jablowmi]

could be just bad luck - you "should" have scored 261 (OBP x SLG x AB), but have scored considerably less. i wonder if you're hitting into more than your fair share of DPs or whether you're hitting lefties better than righties (or vice versa)? let us know.

maybe you're like the real phillies and can't score with runners in scoring position?!

[Yellow_Dog]

I'm hitting considerably better against lefties than righties

Versus Lefties 474 PA .298 AVG .530 SLG .381 OBP
Versus Righties 1170 PA .275 AVG .485 SLG .348 OBP

I'm 12-18 when a rightie starts against me and 8-4 when a leftie starts, probably because of that stat differential.

I went through and counted grounded into double plays. 41 in 42 games, which seems like a lot, but I don't know what the "average" would be for this statistic.

[Ducky]

You could add up the DP's turned on defense, divide by 12 and see if your team is over or under the average.

[Yellow_Dog]

Thanks for the tip mrm. 382 groundball double plays, so average of 32 gdp's per team, so I'm above (41) than average. Not surprising since I've got a some slow guys and have base running and stealing set to conservative. It'll be interesting to see if the number of runs scored averages out over the long haul.

[Jablowmi]

the L/R thing could be a killer. as expected, you're facing and will face more RHP. it does look like you may have some good years there, though (easler, cansucko, schmidt and mattingly, in particular). i would bet that mattingly and clark are amongst the league leaders in DPs - maybe slide Smalley or Frank White up to 2 aganist RHP?

[Outta Leftfield]

Coming back to Jablowmi's first post, it could just be bad luck.

I remember starting a thread under virtually the same header about twenty teams back, with a team that similarly seemed to have a great offense but wasn't scoring enough runs, and somebody pointed out that my team should have—according to the Runs Created formula (OBP x SLG x AB)—been scoring a lot more runs than it did. Over the season it mostly evened out.

In that season, I never completely caught up with the runs I should have been scoring according to the RC formula, but I did start scoring more runs and significantly closed the gap. And the team started winning and made the finals. So if it's mostly bad luck, things can turn around. Another year, though, I had a weaker team that was stuck at last in runs scored for most of the season even though my OBP x SLG suggested I should have been in the middle of the pack. It never really got better. So it should turn around, but there are no guarantees.

Your DP total is higher than average, but I'm not sure that accounts for very much of the the difference. That is, you're 9 DPs above average but 44 runs below what you should have scored--and in just 42 games! The 9 DPs shouldn't cost you that many runs. Moreover, you're about a run per game below where you should be. What I think of as your Runs Created factor (the raw OBP x SLG number) is extremely high: 0.177786. Anything above 0.15 is pretty good. You should be on a pace to score about 995 runs, but your actual pace of runs scored is closer to 835.

Still, your offense seems so good it's hard to believe it can stay down forever. Of course anything could happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if the offense doesn't turn around dramatically somewhere along the line.

[the icemen]

Easler needs to come out of the 5 hole vs lefties...he is hurting that lineup...scary to think your left hand pitching lineup will get better.

scmidt has to come out of the 3 hole vs rhp he is killing you. mattingly needs to drop to 3...he is hitting in the clutch. canseco should be number 4 in both lineups. White could move up vs lhp...drop easler to 8th. you need a no 2 hitter vs rhp. you are weak at 2b / catcher / and ss in that position. a lot of money for smalley to hit what he is hitting with bad defense. same for virgil

don't know who is avail but cutting some salary at those positions might enable you to get a good platoon catcher vs rhp with obp that can bat 2nd or a ss that can hit rhp and field (rare) i would just get defense...anybody decent can put up the same numbers smalley and virgil are at ss and c. (drop both pick up 1 scrub and 1 stud for same money. scrub will still hit 3 hr's at ss)

[Outta Leftfield]

Let's see, now....
At game 42, the team was 20-22, IIRC.
It had scored 217 runs when the RC formula suggested it should have scored 261. In other words, it was scoring roughly 5 runs a game when it should have been scoring 6 runs a game.

Since then, the team has gone 10-5. Great stuff! And it has scored exactly 100 runs in those 15 games. That's a little more than 6.5 runs per game, about where it should be or even a little better.

So the offense seems to be catching up to where it ought to be, and the team is now starting to win. It looks like you're starting to get the pitching straightened out, too. Hang in there. This could turn into a great team.

[honestiago1]

The team is slow on the base paths, which can retard run production. But 5 runs a game, I dunno, I'd take that in a heartbeat.