Pierre in centerfield?

[cummings2]

tersignf has a good point that I always overlook, the lefty N, something patterson has going for him is his reverse power lefty numbers, I love having those in a safeco/shea enviroment, but you did say you already have decent lefty power. I guess that what would need to be considered, regardless of opposite manager settings is how many runs is Pierre going to produce for you with his high OBP, speed and avg that can drive in the bottom of the order as opposed to how many runs he's going to cost you with his arm, let's call that his net run production. I still believe that if you have bats that can drive Pierre in then his OBP and speed are waaaaaay more productive than the damage his arm will cause. Safeco has had a tendency in my limited 3 team experience there to hurt OBP quite a bit, which is great for your pitchers, but with a hitter like patterson who already has a pretty low OBP you're essentially going to get homers from him, and even that not in bunches, he only has 1 clean hit hr in his card both vs. L and R and all others are BPHR, and though Safeco is kind to lefties it's still a 13, not a coors-like 19, so I think your offense would suffer quite a bit.

But only you know, since we don't have a link to the team, if what you need is a leadoff hitter then I'd stick with Pierre, If what you need is a 7 hole hitter then I might switch to patterson (still not sure though) every team has a weakness, at least one, my teams lately have many exploitable weaknesses, but ideally your weaknesses won't be your opponent's strength, that's why I refered to the other guys' speed. PBTR, wavygravy2k and bleacher creature are absolutely right, CF arm IS the most important arm.

But anyway...I haven't figured out a way of calculating the effects of the OF arms, but whenever I have a similar situation where I try to see the defensive impact of a player I always match it up with the offensive numbers the player is likely to produce and go from there, the so called net run production refered to above.

By the way, the time I had Pierre in CF, was in Safeco, my pitching was waaay worse than yours, I traded for him after game 57, so he played 105 games for me. He hit .312 with an OBP of .362 stole 51 and scored 84 times and my pitching staff posted a 3.86 era, in case you are wondering who was pitching suffices to say that the combined salaries of my SP was 8.35 M (little bit more than sheets alone) and my pen's added salaries 12.35. The player I traded away for Pierre was Torii Hunter, I honestly didn't see that big of a difference on my pitcher's stats, and Hunter -Perre is a nasty drop. Most likely I was just lucky but it's just my experience. I do have to add that my staff was made up of mostly ground ball pitchers and I had a 1 in both SS and 2B, hence the hit I could take in CF defense.

[durantjerry]

The answer depends on where you need the player to bat in your order, as one is a top of the order hitter and the other a bottom of the order hitter. If you could go either way, Patterson would be a good value in safeco IMO with his ability to hit lefties.

[DAVIDGRANDE 2]

Pierre in CF?

Let’s do some math on it.
First, Pierre is a 2e2 defensively. That means you can count on him to commit two errors, generally one being a two-base error, in the course of a season. As a 2 fielder, he has three chances out of 20 in the split deck of allowing a ball to drop for a hit. So, 85 percent of the time he’ll make the catch. The fly ball CF X comes up only three times per pitcher in 108 chances, slightly less than 3 percent.

Now, during the course of a regular Strat-O-Matic on-line season, your team will have roughly 5,600 at-bats. Since there is a 50-50 chance of landing on the hitter’s card or the pitcher’s, that means 2,800 at-bats will come off the pitcher’s card. Of that number, the CF X rating will occur roughly 75 times per season. So, about 10 times during the season Pierre is going to let the ball drop for a hit.

Now, let’s look at the plus-3 throwing arm. Pierre’s arm makes a 1-10 runner a 1-13, which increases that runner’s safe chances from 50 percent to 65 percent. Now, most baseball gurus will tell you that you want a 65 percent ration in steals to toss-outs for the stolen base to be a successful offensive tool. Would not the same success rate dictate your decision to take the extra base? So, in Pierre’s case you’re going for it since the worst runner on your team will still be successful 55 percent of the time.

Now, for the tricky part: How many times will Pierre’s arm come into play. If you take a cross-section of hitters and pitchers (I pulled 10 hitter cards and 10 pitching cards at random – I know, I have too much time on my hands!) the average is about 8 chances in 108 on each hitter’s card and 4 to 5 chances on the pitcher’s card. Remember, all those splits (HR 1-9, 2B 10-20, TR 1-2, 2B 3-20, etc.) are going to CF. So, going back to our 5,600 at-bats, and taking half that to reflect the hitter’s card, you have roughly 207 plays in which the CF arm will come into play during the course of the season. And you will have just over 100 times when it comes into play off the pitcher’s card. So, you have roughly 300-plus times the CF’s arm will come into play during the course of the season, or slightly less than two times per ballgame. Given Pierre’s weak arm, that means you will be successful roughly two-thirds of the time. After all, your 1-8 catcher has now got a 55 percent chance of being successful and that 1-17 runner has a 95 percent chance. In short, Pierre increases everyone’s success rate by 15 percent.

So, if your pitching staff allows 750 total runs over the course of the season, this means that Pierre could add about 25 to 30 more runs to that total with his inability to throw people out. I’m sure your pitching staff will love that! Now, in the last two leagues in which I have played, I have had 45 and 47 one-run games – slightly above 25 percent of the 162 games. If you have a decent team, you should win 60 percent of those 1-run games. That means you have a 1-in-4 chance of Pierre allowing one of those runs to score in a one-run game, which could cut your winning percentage to 50-50, or about 3 to 4 games difference. So, Pierre could cost you 3 to 4 victories.

I know this has been rather convoluted, but Strat-o-Matic is based on mathematical probability. And the mathematics say: Don’t play Pierre in CF, use him as a DH.

[cummings2]

That was fantastico DL! one thing though, If I remember correctly when it comes to running the bases whether it's stealing or taking the extra base the pitcher's hold rate comes into play, that's why I mentioned the issue up above, so actually if the pitching staff has bad Hold rates and runner have a better chance of getting a good lead then the runner's pct. might actually increase, even if by a fraction, making it more painful to have a +3 CF...also, there is a chance that the rolls that call for Pierre's arm happen when there is no runner on base, therefore we'd have to consider how many of those rolls are likely to fall when there is a runner in scoring postion and 1 out, because even if the runner succesfully takes third on a SI* due to Pierre's weak arm IF there are two outs it is is less likely that the runner will score from third, therefore in that case pierre's arm wouldn't case any problems. But I do like the way you went about calculating it, with this info you can tell roughly how many runs he'll cost you, and given your offense you'll know how many runs he'll produce.

Now, in relation to his Net runs produced would you drop him, knowing he'll probably score 100+ runs leading off, maybe 40-50 RBIs? -If you could only have him in CF because your DH is even worse defensively.

What would you do DL?

[DAVIDGRANDE 2]

Personally, I'd drop him. I've never gone after Pierre in any league I've played.

First, while he might have a 2-12 jump, his steal numbers are 15-13. That's not that good. Remember, he stole 45 bases, but got caught 24 times in real life. He'll get caught more in this game because we're only playing with 12 teams, which means you're using the cream of the crop pitchers (whose hold ratings should be better) and top line catchers. Most every catcher with a -1, -2, -3 arm is grabbed up in a hurry.

Granted, he has a nice on-base average .374 and batting average .326. and will probably reproduce both those over the course of a season, but you can get almost the same production in CF out of Crawford with a 0 arm, or Kotsay with a -3 arm. Or Wilkerson, for that matter, whose on-base is equally as good and will walk 100+ times a season. He won't steal 50 bases, but you can probably stretch him into 25 to 30.

Furthermore, unless you a building a team around speed, then you probably don't want Pierre as a DH. That's a spot for an Ortiz, or Hafner, or Bonds, or any other player who is suspect with the glove. You want some swat at DH.

[MICHAELTARBELL]

I personally would never have a +3 arm in CF....unless maybe Bonds played there! :wink:

[sousa]

DLGrande's post is amazing--the kind of thing I send to people I played this game with when I was a kid when I try to persuade them that some folks have made SOM a subject of serious study. Thanks for the work--I've done Ph.D. level stats courses and understand probability well, but don't often hafe the time...

Pierre must go, but options are limited. Thanks for the input.

DS

[milezd]

I have to disagree, I think DLGrande's suggestion that pierre's arm adds 25-30 runs a year is grossly over exagerated.

He states, according to his research, that a CF arm rating will come into play ~300 times in a season. While this may be accurate it is assuming that there are runners on base who will always be able to score if they roll versus their running rating successfully.

after a little poking I have found some interesting information:

the frequency of runner situations in baseball
[url]http://mysite.verizon.net/brak2.0/rbipaper.htm[/url]

[quote:ad3ab74053]
No runners on base:55.1%
1 runner on base: 30.3%
2 runners on base: 12.37%
3 runners on base: 2.18%

For specific situations:
Runner on first base: 17.55%
Runners on first and second: 6.78%
Runners on first and third: 3.16%
Bases loaded: 2.18%
Runner on second base: 9.56%
Runners on second and third: 2.43%
Runner on third base: 3.24%
[/quote:ad3ab74053]

- given that there are NO runners on base 55.1% of the time, that would slash the 25-30 extra runs in half

- the arm rating will only come into effect when there is less than 2 outs, that then cuts another 33% off that total

those two alone bring number of runs down to 5-6 runs a season and I think that is still being overly generous

I am not a great math/stats whiz but to me it seems like there are several large holes in the numbers you came up with, I would be glad to see a more detail investigation into this

also some details on how the arm rating comes into play in strat-o-matic

from the super advanced rules ([url]http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/btf/pages/basesim/somrules.htm[/url]):
[quote:ad3ab74053]

fly()B? - the runner on 3rd with less than 2 outs may attempt to score as provided in the ADVANCEMENT OF RUNNERS section.

[b:ad3ab74053]Advancement of Runners[/b:ad3ab74053]

One asterisk (*) following a single indicates an automatic one base advance for all runners, Two asterisks (**) following a single or double indicates an automatic two base advance for all runners. Singles not followed by an asterisk(s) shall be considered a 1 base advance; doubles not followed by asterisks shall be considered a 2 base advance. However, in instances of singles and doubles not followed by asterisk(s), the manager of the team at bat may elect to have his baserunners advance an additional base. This does not include the batter who remains on the base indicated by the hit (first base for a single, second base for a double). If the manager decides to try for the extra base, he refers to the leading baserunner's running rating, found at the upper right-hand comer of his batting card and then adds 'Modifications for runner advancement'. This would give you the runners chance for advancement. The defensive manager would then roll the 20-sided die. If the number rolled falls on or under the runner's chance for advancement, all runners advance an additional base.

If the manager decides to try for the extra base, he refers to the leading baserunner's running rating, found at the upper right-hand comer of his batting card and then adds 'Modifications for runner advancement'.

[b:ad3ab74053]Modifications for Baserunner Advancement[/b:ad3ab74053]

The possible changes to a batter's baserunning rating are as follows:
[list=1:ad3ab74053]
[*:ad3ab74053]add or subtract the number in parenthesis following the outfield position found at the top of the involved defensive outfielder's card from the running rating of the involved baserunner. To identify the outfielder in question refer to the outfield symbol following the single or double reading on the batter or pitcher's card involved. In the event that there is no outfield symbol assume the throw to be made by the centerfielder.
[*:ad3ab74053]Add +2 if there is two outs when advancing on Singles and Doubles
[*:ad3ab74053]On attempts for third base: subtract -2 if the left fielder is making the throw, add +2 if the right fielder is making the throw
[*:ad3ab74053]On attempts for home with a FLY ( )B? add +2
[/list:o:ad3ab74053]

The combined running rating with all possible modifications cannot be lower than 1 nor higher than 19.
[/quote:ad3ab74053]

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

you've got to remember that all hits w/o a fielder indicated i.e a double vs a double (rf) or a single vs a single(lf) go the CF by default so the arm changes for the cf are higher than one would think.

[DAVIDGRANDE 2]

What a wonderful site you provided on the RBI statistics. I've just finished reading it, and downloading it.

You're right about the number of runners on base - I overlooked the fact that the arm will come into play without runners on base, too. Not sure what I was thinking. Sometimes, you can get wrapped up in your statistical formula and not notice that you left something out. Thanks for pointing it out.

I had some data from an old Bill James book which was very similar to the site you provided.

That does change things significantly, and you may be right about cutting it in half. Someone else sent my some John Lamanna data, too, but it applied to on-base percentage and double-play possibilities per position player, and does not take arm strength into account.

I am trying to recalculate Pierre's impact based on the data you provided via that site. We've certainly created some banter on mathematical probability, though.

Even if Pierre's not as great a factor as I originally calculated, I'm still going to set my manager settings at "very aggressive" for baserunning every time I run up against Pierre, even if he's flanked by -4 arms. :roll: