2006 Brad Hawpe

[visick]

I just drafted him in my Pre-Card draft for next year. He'll DH vs. RH's for me.

After looking at his card a number of times and then at other Colorado Rockies, I noticed something very weird.

He hit much better, even had more power, on the road. No other Rockie was like this.

So, I was just wondering...what do you think his card will look like vs. RH's ?

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=5955

My guess is non-BP dependant, with at least 1 possibly 2 natural HR's.


visick

[Mean Dean]

I don't see how it could work like that. Since SOM isn't capable of replicating the fact that he did worse at home, doing what you suggest would make his card too good. He'd do well on the road because of his non-park-dependent card, and then if Coors is still a big hitters' park, he'd come home and do as well or better. His statline wouldn't end up resembling the one he put up in real life.

(It was often reported this year that Coors was playing as more of a pitcher's park this year; if that is accurate -- I haven't checked -- then naturally that would mean that, at least relative to previous years, all Rockie hitters' cards would be less park-dependent. But I don't see how their individual home/road splits can factor into it.)

[visick]

I guess I'm really amazed at his #'s at home vs. the road...

The top 5 Rockie hitters really benefitted from the friendly confines of their home park EXCEPT for Hawpe.

"and then if Coors is still a big hitters' park, he'd come home and do as well or better"
But wouldn't that mean he would have BP dependant HR's?

[Mean Dean]

No, in your scenario, his overall good card would let him do well anywhere, and if Coors was typical Coors, then the diamonds certainly wouldn't [i:d633bb311a]hurt[/i:d633bb311a] him.

The only way ballpark effects can make a hitter's card worse is if 1) the card has diamonds on rolls that would otherwise be hits, and 2) the ballpark effect is less likely to yield a hit than the original roll would be. If they did as you suggest, neither would apply in force since there wouldn't be many diamonds, and when he rolled them, they'd be "hitter's park" diamonds that would likely be good for him.