Chances on a card

[LARRYCURTIS]

What are the differences in chances on a card, if a player has all his chances on a card for one category such as gb(xx)A in one column vs spread out in different columns?

Take for example Mays. Against RH pitchers, all the gb(xx)A are in col. 3 of the card. Against LH, they are spread out between col. 1 and 3.

:?

[JohnnyBlazers]

I am pretty new at this but I found this to be helpful in trying to analyze the player cards. This is from DiamondDope.com:

The card stats are based on the following dice-roll probabilities:

2 = 1 in 36 (2.78%)
3 = 2 in 36 (5.56%)
4 = 3 in 36 (8.33%)
5 = 4 in 36 (11.11%)
6 = 5 in 36 (13.89%)
7 = 6 in 36 (16.67%)
8 = 5 in 36 (13.89%)
9 = 4 in 36 (11.11%)
10 = 3 in 36 (8.33%)
11 = 2 in 36 (5.56%)
12 = 1 in 36 (2.78%)

The reason that it's X in 36 is because there are 36 possible combinations rolling 2 six-sided die. Only 1 will yield an outcome of 2 (snake eyes), 2 combinations will yield 3 (2-1 and 1-2), etc. Since there are 3 columns, 3 x 36 = 108 chances or "plate appearances" on each side.

Let's say there's a homerun on a 7 (7 - HOMERUN). That's 6 homerun "chances" or, in effect, 6 homeruns.

Let's say there's a walk on a 3 (3 - WALK). That's 2 "chances" so there are 2 walks, etc.

Let's say there's a split or park effect (10 - HR 1-8). You take the percentage of the split, in this case 8 out of 20 (40%) and multiply that by the chances (3 * 40% = 1.2 homeruns).

Add everything up and you get the stats. (not all of the following numbers are displayed)
AB = 108 - BB - HBP
AVG = H/AB
OBP = (H + BB + HBP)/108
TOTAL BASES = SINGLES + DOUBLES * 2 + TRIPLES * 3 + HOMERUNS * 4
SLG = TOTAL BASES/AB
RC (RUNS CREATED) = TOTAL BASES * OBP
OUTS = AB - H
RC/27 = (RC/OUTS)*27
BR (BATTING RUNS) = .47 * SINGLES + .78 * DOUBLES + 1.09 * TRIPLES + 1.4 * HOME RUNS + .33 * (WALKS + HBP) - .25 * OUTS


match-up analyzer Simulates actual dice rolls. 3 random numbers are generated between 1 and 6. The first determines whether the outcome is in the pitcher's or hitter's column. The other two determine the outcome (see card reader).

Select a hitter, select a ballpark (choosing "No Park Effects" ignores all park effects), select a pitcher, enter the number of plate appearances, press Go.

Choosing "Clutch On" will turn all $ Singles to Outs and all $ Outs to Singles on a hitter's card.

Choosing "Fatigue On" will turn all @ symbols into Singles on a pitcher's card.

park effects A player can have drastically different results depending on which park they play in. This tool applies the park effects to a player's card and tells you his AVG, OBP, SLG, RC/27 and BR for each stadium.

pythagorean calculator Pythagorean winning percentage is an estimate of a team's winning percentage given their runs scored and runs allowed. Developed by Bill James, it can tell you when teams were a bit lucky or unlucky. It is calculated by

(Runs Scored)^1.83/(Runs Scored)^1.83 + (Runs Allowed)^1.83

The traditional formula uses an exponent of two, but 1.83 has proven to be a little more accurate. (This is the calculation baseball-reference.com uses.)

From our very own "Hack Wilson"



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