A review of the exceptional teams in 2006

[MARCPELLETIER]

I reviewed almost all 2006 TSN leagues. I searched for teams that performed exceptionally well. At first, I started my research by looking at teams that had achieved at least 95 pythogarian wins, but then I restricted to 98 pythogarian wins. (Pythogarian wins refer to the numbers of win that one can except given the number of runs scored and allowed. For example, a team with 800 runs scored and 600 runs allowed can be expected to win on average 102 wins, so their pythogarian record is 102-60, regardless of their true record). I also considered teams that had won 100 wins, regardless of the pythogarian records, because 100 wins, well, that a heck of a season.

As far as I can tell, these leagues were regular non-theme, dh, 80M leagues. A few teams with exceptional records were discarded because they were in divisions with extremely poor teams (one division had a 33 win team, another had a 41 wins team). Other than that, I didn't do any other discretionary measures. I don't pretend to have been completely exhaustive in my research, but I am sure I have seen most of the leagues.

Bottom-line, these teams ended up with exceptional records.

I came up with 123 teams.

I will write in this thread some observations as we go along the Final TSN Tour draft.

[MARCPELLETIER]

I already discussed of one issue in another thread. I repeat it here.

I averaged the money spent on the pitching. On average, these exceptional teams spent exactly 31.89M.

However, when I grouped together teams based on their stadiums, another picture came out.

10 teams used USCellular Field. On average those 10 teams spent 26.6M on their pitching. One team spent 40M, all nine other teams spent 30M or less on their pitching. If we exclude that 40M team, USCellular teams spent on average 25.1M.

If I regroup all teams playing in offense-oriented stadiums (by that, I mean USCell, AmQuest, Minute Maid, BOB, Citizen, and Coors), I have 31 teams. On average, these 31 teams spent 28M on their pitching.

I had an opposite view when I looked at Petco teams. 19 teams had dominating seasons in Petco. On average, these teams spent 35M on their pitching. One team spent 27M on their pitching, another 29M, and all other 17 teams spent between 30M and 41M. Interestingly, five of those teams spent more on their pitching than on their offense/defense, and were highly succesful in doing it. I had similar results (35M) when I grouped together teams playing in Jacobs, Kauffman and Petco.

[MARCPELLETIER]

edit

[MARCPELLETIER]

Stadiums.

I identified the stadium for 122 of those 123 teams.

The most recurring stadium was Petco. 19 teams took Petco. That said, there are so many teams trying Petco that it is difficult to conclude if there is really an edge at choosing Petco. Perhaps Petco reoccured the most simply because Petco is the most popular.

The second most recurring stadium was surprising though, because it is not a stadium as popular. It came out 17 teams, a very high number times considering that I had only 122 teams. This stadium was PNC. PNC is, according to my numbers, the second most left-handed oriented stadium once you factor singles and homeruns, slightly less left-handed oriented than Safeco.

Minute Maid, the most right-handed oriented stadium, came third with 11 recurrences.

The most offense-oriented stadium, US Cellular, came fourth with 10 teams.

Safeco, the most left-handed oriented stadium, came fifth with 9 teams.

I did a further analysis. I took all 30 stadiums, and I split those stadiums in five categories of six stadiums each, in the following way:

A-left-handed oriented stadiums (Safeco, PNC, AmQuest, RFK, Dolphins, Tropicana)
B-neutral-low hitting stadiums (Petco, Kauffman, Jacobs, Busch, Comerica, Shea)
C-neutral-average hitting stadiums (Metro, Turner, Dodgers, Yankees, Miller, Angels)
D-neutral-high hitting stadiums (Great American, BOB, Rogers, USCell, Coors, Citizen)
E-right-handed oriented stadiums (Camden, McAfee, SBC, Wrigley, Fenway, Minute Maid).

I then look at which category reoccured the most:

A-33
B-32
C-13
D-24
E-20

So, there is a slight bias among teams with exceptional records for going with left-handed- and low-hitting-oriented stadiums, but clearly, teams going with other strategies could also be successful.

That said, considering the popularity of Minute Maid, the fact that it came as less succesful than PNC appears to me as some evidence that teams going with a left-handed oriented stadium had some edge this year.

Still, one can easily have success in Minute Maid, as evidenced by the 11 teams who could dominate their respective leagues.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Here is the complete list

STADIUM.................LEFTY FACTOR........Occurences among teams
[list:709e0cdb8d]
SAFECO Field (Seattle) 11.2............. 9
PNC Park __(Pittsburgh) 10.8............... 17
Ameriquest Field (Texas) 11.2........... 3
RFK Stadium (Washington) 8.4............. 0
Dolphins Stadium (Florida NL) 8.4............. 3
Shea Stadium (New York NL) 6.2............ 1
Tropicana Field (Florida AL) 5.4............ 1
Comerica Park (Detroit) 2.................. 1
PETCO Park (San Diego) 0............... 19
Jacobs Field (Cleveland) 0............... 6
Turner Field__(Atlanta) 0............... 5
Dodger Stadium (Los Angeles) 0............... 1
Metrodome (Minnesota) 0................ 5
Yankee Stadium (New York AL) 0............... 2
Miller Park (Milwaukee) 0............... 0
Great American Ballpark (Cinci 0................. 4
Bank One Ballpark (Arizona) 0............... 2
Rogers Center (Toronto) 0............... 3
US Cellular(Chicago AL) 0................. 10
Coors Field (Colorado) 0............... 5
Angels Stadium (Anaheim) -1.2........... .0
Kauffman Stadium (KC) -1.2............. 5
Citizen's Bank Park (Philadel -2............. 0
Busch Stadium (St. Louis) -2.4........... 0
Camden Yards (Baltimore) -5.4........... 1
Wrigley Field (Chicago NL) -6.8........... 2
McAfee Coliseum (Oakland) -7.2........... 1
SBC Park (San Fransisco) -7.8........... 1
Fenway Park (Boston) -8.4........... 4
Minute Maid Park (Houston) -21.4......... 11[/list:u:709e0cdb8d]

[MARCPELLETIER]

HR and SB in Petco teams

Of all 19 Petco teams, only 3 produced more homeruns than allowed, and 2 of those teams finished with less than 90 wins despite their very good pythogarian records. On average, Petco produced 134 homeruns, and allowed 161 homeruns. Two conceded almost 100 homeruns to their opponents, and yet finished with 97 wins and 104 wins respectively. Thus, allowing more homeruns is not a problem in Petco, as long as you can compensate by other means.

What about SB? They seem to help. Here, I considered 30 teams, all Petco, Kaufman, and Jacobs teams. On average, these exceptional teams playing in low-hitting environment had 117 stolen bases. Only two teams stole less than 50 SBs. Two other had in the 50-60 range. Four teams had over 200 SBs.

The least we can say is that spending on speed runner certainly doesn't hurt a low-hitting team, and perhaps even contribute to its success.

[the splinter]

Outstanding data Marcus.....and I can back it up. I had 5 90+ win teams(98 best) and all of them,no matter the stadium, follow your calculations. My best teams played in US Cell and PNC and had btwn 25 and 29 million in pitching.

[MARCPELLETIER]

Thanks splinter.

Here is riddle for those who have time to lose.

Among those 123 exceptional teams, four players: an infielder, an outfielder, a starting pitcher, and a reliever pitcher re-occur a shattering 20 times (actually, one of those reoccured 22 times). Who are they?

I will give a clue tomorrow.

IF:
OF:
SP:
RP:

A bonus point if you identify the ultimate MVP (the player/pitcher that reoccurred 22 times).

[LMBombers]

I suppose these are starting playersa that you are talking about. Here is a stab at it:

IF: Ortiz
OF: Floyd
SP: Santana
RP: Wagner

And I'll guess Floyd was the player on 22 of the teams.

[Detroit-Tigers]

IF: Cora
OF: Thames
SP: Willis
RP: Shields

I am pretty sure the players have to be low-priced back-ups.