2007 Cards

[visick]

Liriano is gonna be sick. Probably the best.

Clemens will have a nice card.

A. Sanchez has nice #'s too.

Florida's SP's are fairly decent.

[qksilver69]

Liriano best SP. Santana maybe best * SP but gives up some HR to LH, similar to this year.

Harden is an S5, so that takes away a little of his value, but I think it also ensures they won't exclude him. His card has a ton of Ks, most of his WHIP is walks, and then he gives up a few HRs to each side. I think he's a good 2nd tier SP, maybe top 10 but not top 5. I see a $6.5-7M card.

[michael_kofsky]

Qk - once again, I beg to differ but 36.3 total hit chances vs RH's for Scott is hardly historic. There have been plenty of cards the last few years that have had that many hit chances on one side. Considering Scott's HR chances are only 4.2, and his OBP chances are only 48.3, you are way off base here with your prediction.

[visick]

huh?

Scott's 36.3 hit chances are better than:

Berkman's (26.7)
Thome (20.4)
ManRam (25.9)
Hafner (20.6)
Sizemore (31.1)
etc...

I never said historic.

Only 48.3??? There are exactly 12 guys ahead of Scott in terms of OB chances. (Abreu, Thome, German, ManRam, Giambi, Bard, Cabrera, C. Jones, Jeter, Matsui, Mauer and Hafner)

[Detroit-Tigers]

Other players I feel will get excluded:

SP Sampson
SP Villaneuva (borderline, but because this is a bad SP year maybe)
SP Harden (borderline, but more likely that Villaneuva because he has been good in the past and his card is a little worse IMO)
SP Gozelanny

Basically any top 30 SP with less than 100 innings needs to have had previous excellence to qualify IMO.

Besides the obvious ones (Cleven, Escobar, Lind), I think the following:

OF Luke Scott
CA Ross (borderline)
1B Saenz (borderline)

[michael_kofsky]

Hmm Socal, my argument was NOT with you. It was with QKsilver.

Qk is the one who said that Scott would be excluded. My comments were always aimed at him.

I never took umbrage with ANYTHING that you said and I apoloigze if I offended you in some way.

My point with Scott is that his hit and OBP chances vs RH's are not so astronomical that they would qualify him for auto exclusion. I can name numerous cards in the last few sets that were that lopsided and were included in the TSN game.

[visick]

NP Dalinoth...

It would have been nice had I read who you were talking to rather than just the body of the message. :?

FWIW-
I've been under the impression that players in BOLD in the ratings book, DO NOT get carded. All others will get a card. Scott is NOT in bold so I think he will be included.

[geekor]

I don't believe Shealy was in bold last year and he was excluded, reminds me a bit of Scott :P

or am I just fanning the flames :wink:

[geekor]

btw, since someone showed me some numbers for Rollins, was anyone more robbed by SOM? I mean he didn't have great BA/OBP, but at SS, he has the most TB's, XBH's, 3rd in 2B's and 2nd in HR's. You would think his tb's would be higher than 40? :?

[Ninersphan]

Bold is not always an indicator of everyone who will be discarded. Some non-bold players will be as well. Three years ago, Carols Baerga was left out after a 207 ab season. His total bases weren't in Scott's class but the hit counts and OB counts were right in the same neighborhood or worse.

06' Scott, Hit 19/36, OB 52/48, TB 28.4/72.5 HR .6/4.2
'03 Baerga Hit 29.2/37.2 OB 31.2/48.2 TB 44.5/44.5 HR .8/.8

I think it's examples like this that qksilver is basing his decision on. I bet he's right too.