Help on DEFENSE stats please

[jaxxr]

:-) http://postcardsbargain.com/joke.html

Who is the better CF on defense ?
Mickey Stanley 1(-2)e0 or C Geronimo 1(-5)e3

Chet Lemon 1(-1)e2 or C Geronimo 1(-5)e3

Arm more/less important than errors ?

I asked about Catcher on a different thread, no response so I'll ask here as well.

T rates, the lower the better, on throw aways and passed balls ? Correct ?

Would not a better arm rate, say (-4) as opposed to a (-2) usually have less stolen bases against a catcher ?

In my first season, currently second in my divison and leading in the wild card race, still learning the game though.

Thanks for any help/advice !!!!

[Mean Dean]

[quote:21bb95fb2b="jaxxr"]:-) http://postcardsbargain.com/joke.html[/quote:21bb95fb2b]
Don't do that.

[quote:21bb95fb2b]I asked about Catcher on a different thread, no response so I'll ask here as well.[/quote:21bb95fb2b]
Don't do that either.

[quote:21bb95fb2b]Who is the better CF on defense ?
Mickey Stanley 1(-2)e0 or C Geronimo 1(-5)e3

Chet Lemon 1(-1)e2 or C Geronimo 1(-5)e3

Arm more/less important than errors ?[/quote:21bb95fb2b]
Arm is not terribly important, but it's certainly more important than a difference of 1-3 errors. The error rating is the number of errors you'd expect the player to commit per 162 games. So 1-3 more really is not very significant over the long haul.

[jaxxr]

Sorry about asking in 2 places, dont know the protocall on the boards as yet. The link came up by itself, I'll try to block or whatever in the future.

So it looks like Geronimo is the better for defense.

Does defense come into play on just certain rolls or situations ? Does the pitcher's card have to be the one used ?

Thanks much

[Mean Dean]

[quote:e2d1c65234="jaxxr"]Does defense come into play on just certain rolls or situations ? Does the pitcher's card have to be the one used ?[/quote:e2d1c65234]
Yes, fielding only comes into play off pitchers' cards. Since all pitchers' cards have identical "X" rolls (the "X" rolls are those on which fielding ability matters), every plate appearance has the same chance that fielding ability will be called upon. Those chances are:

SS - 3.24%
2B - 2.78%
C, 3B and CF - 1.39% each
1B, LF, RF and P - 0.93% each

Things are not quite that simple, though. In addition to how often a player's fielding ability will be called upon, you also have to consider what the differences between various fielding ratings add up to, which varies at different positions. For instance, because outfielders are capable of giving up a lot of extra-base hits, going down one range rating's worth of difference in the outfield hurts you more than going down one range rating's worth at 1B or 3B. This can compensate for -- or outweigh -- the fact that the outfielders might get fewer chances or an equal number of chances.

IMO, the way it all shakes out is:[list:e2d1c65234][*:e2d1c65234]Defense at 2B and SS is critical.[*:e2d1c65234]CF is also extremely important.[*:e2d1c65234]LF and RF are not crucial, but a bad one will still hurt you a lot because of all the extra-base hits given up. You need to seriously consider all your options before putting a 4 or even a 3 in the OF. Don't just slap one out there because you think it doesn't matter.[*:e2d1c65234]1B and 3B defense is not terribly important, and you can hide bad fielders there, especially if they have good e-ratings.[*:e2d1c65234]The thing about catcher is that a catcher's defense will very rarely put a runner on base. His job is mostly to deal with runners already on base. But keeping runners off base is inherently more important than limiting their progress once they're already on. Although it would really kill you if you were to play a completely incompetent 5(+5)e16, T-20, pb-20 catcher... presumably you're smart enough not to do that. Assuming that we're talking about a catcher who is non-horrendous at two of the three arm/T/PB skills, I would consider catcher to only be more important than 1B and 3B, and less important than the other positions.[/list:u:e2d1c65234]

[frog17]

I read in another link that a catcher with a poor range rating is more likely to give up more infield hits. By this, I took it to mean that batters reach first safely more often on bunt attempts. However, someone with more experience probably clarify this.

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:f8aba12c8d]I read in another link that a catcher with a poor range rating is more likely to give up more infield hits. By this, I took it to mean that batters reach first safely more often on bunt attempts. However, someone with more experience probably clarify this.[/quote:f8aba12c8d]

As far as I can remember, your take is wrong. Catchers with poor rating are more likely to give up more infield hits, not in bunt attempts, but simply in dealing with normal at-bats (not dealing fast enough with the small ground balls hit in front of them).

Catchers with poor rating will also yield more passballs and, if my memory serves well, pitchers will also end up with more wild pitches with catchers with bad ratings.

Furthermore, to the extent that TSN is using the catcher blocking rule, catchers with bad ratings are more likely to allow more runs on throws made at homeplate then catchers with good ratings. And this difference can sum up to large discrepancy quite fast. In short, for every play where a runner challenges a play at home, catchers with a rating of 1 will remove roughly 2 units to the running rating of the runner compared to a catcher with a rating of 5. To give a concrete example, if ARod is heading home, and a throw is done at homeplate, and if ARod will be safe for any roll between 1-15, then his actual running rating will almost be 1-14 with a 1-rated catcher, and almost be 1-16 with a 5-rated catcher. That's a 10% difference.

In my playing time, there was at least 1 play at home plate per game on average, probable 1.5 play at home plate. For the sake of argument, let's say that there are 200 throws at home plate during the season, then a 1-rated catcher will save 20 runs compared to a 5-rated catcher, or 10 runs compared to a 3-rated catcher, just for this blocking rule (actually, it's a bit less, because I rounded up numbers).

In short, I think catcher ratings should not be underestimated too easily. Sometimes, I have drafted catchers with 4 of range, particularly in homerun ballparks, but I always make sure to have a defensive back-up in case the game is to be decided by one run.

That said, I'm not 100% sure that TSN is indeed using the blocking rule. The rule has been introduced in strat recently.

[Mean Dean]

Catcher range actually [i:866c734f4d]can[/i:866c734f4d] factor into a bunt attempt, but the effect is so minuscule that it's not even really worth discussing. Specifically, a big 2.3% of all bunts will be "defense" results on bunts to the catcher. In this situation, the lead runner's safe chance will be his speed minus 4 plus the fielder's defense. So if the lead runner is speed 15 and the catcher is a 2, his chance to advance will be 1-13 (65%); if the catcher is a 4, it'd be 1-15 (75%). So, it hardly ever happens, it's not a big effect even when it does happen, and when you throw in that you're probably not even going to risk throwing for any lead runner with any sort of decent chance to make it... well, it's almost as close to zero effect as you can get. ("Defense" bunt results can go to other fielders besides the catcher; in fact, both the P and 1B are twice as likely to be tested as the C.)

As [b:866c734f4d]lucky[/b:866c734f4d] alludes to, there is a 5% chance on a CATCH-X of a squib single in front of the plate... but that is true whether the catcher's range is 1 or 5, so that doesn't matter either.

I do agree with [b:866c734f4d]lucky[/b:866c734f4d] that blocking the plate is the potentially important aspect of catchers' range. My guess that it's [i:866c734f4d]not[/i:866c734f4d] that important is just that, a guess. If the plate blocking is indeed called upon, and if it indeed determines the result of the play, we know that that's significant: turning a run into an out is a big deal. What we need to know to determine the importance of the rating is how often that situation arises.

[MARCPELLETIER]

[quote:ef37c2afa1]As lucky alludes to, there is a 5% chance on a CATCH-X of a squib single in front of the plate... but that is true whether the catcher's range is 1 or 5, so that doesn't matter either.[/quote:ef37c2afa1]

oops! seems like my memory failed here.

As for your guess with regards to catcher blocking, I can provide you with an educated guess. First, from playing the game, my own estimation is that a throw at homeplate would occur roughly once per game (for each team). Second, on average, we can see from the statistical pages that there are roughly 40 outfield assists per year. A few of those assists happen at second base (vs runners trying to extend a single into doubles) or third base, but the big bulk happens at homeplate. Let's say that 30 outfield assists happen at homeplate, to be conservative. If on average, Hal sends at home plate players with safe chance of 75%, then we can make the deduction that there are roughly 120 throws at the plate (with 90 safe occurrences and 30 outs, for a 75% success). My experience from looking at the game logs is that Hal is rather conservative when sending a player at home plate. This is just a guess, but if Hal is indeed conservative, and/or if owners sets the managerial running at conservative, such that Hal doesn't send runners home unless they have 80% chances of being safe, then those 30 outs are the results of approximately 150 throws at home plate.

My educated guess is that 120-150 is the ballpark range of the number of throws occuring at home plate. A lot more than "a few cases per season" as I have seen on these boards in the past.

Moreover, I don't know exactly the super-advanced rules about throwing at home plate from an infielder playing, but if blocking also occurs here, you can add up to those 120-150 occurrances.

[MARCPELLETIER]

So, just to complete my reasoning, if the rule of blocking catchers apply, a good catcher can save up to 10/15 runs per season only by good blocking.

But is the rule on in TSN?

[cummings2]

I know the current thread gears towards a different aspect than the ones discussed in the old forums' Catcher defense thread, but for reference:

[url=http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=104965]Old Forums Cathcer Defense Thread[/url]