by keyzick » Fri Mar 09, 2007 9:01 am
As has most of us, I've teams that go on either a nosedive after starting out hot, or get hot after starting out cold.
Common theme is with runs for and against. A team with a good/great start, but low runs for/against differential, ends up going into a nosedive. This makes sense in that they're involved in a lot of close games, and the law of averages catches up with them. Similarly - teams that have a big favorable spread that have been losing (ie, whomping someone for the wins, then losing the close ones) usually go on a hot streak to turn things around.
Now, of course there are reasons that can be attributed to each - bad bullpens blow leads, etc., and what I've witnessed is not 100% of the time the situation around those streaks, BUT keeping a careful eye on the runs differential is usually a good measurement of how good your team truly is and whether it may take a turn for the better or worse.
If I were in charge of the coding for TSN though, I'd try to implement what markp65 discussed. Sounds like a great business idea. The only flaw I see with that theory as pertains to SOM, is that teams are playing other teams.....so if your favoring the losing teams, those losses have to pile up aganist all other teams, not JUST against the winning teams. Whereas casinos can tease people on a slot machine because each pull is completely independent of anyone else's at the casino.
Wow, didn't think I'd write this much! I guess I'd just like to believe that the results are actually do to the probability of dice rolls and aren't manipulated in any way.