Guerrero for Newbees

[AdamKatz]

Is Guerrero a bigger liability at third or in left? I am playing in royals. Waivers are tonight (I have first pick) and I currently have Decincess at third, Gwynn and Greenfield in the corners and Van Slyke in Center. In order to plan for waiver picks I am trying to decide what I would do with Guerrero. I can put him at third, leave the corner OFs alone and try to upgrade CF post-waivers (no better options on waiver line) or plan on moving Gwynn to CF and put Guerrero in right. I can live with a bad OF in LF or RF but Id rather not have bad OFs in both. I can dump Greenwell but I think he is really good value and I have enough holes to fill.

On waivers, Ripken is available (but I have Yount-I got my first 2 picks and then about 2 more picks of the next 23) and so are a number of good pitchers (but no one better than Valenzuala or Key) and alot of good 2Bs.

In any case I know a lot of people like Horner and Hojo (and others) at 3B and Guerrero is not much worse. So Im wondering what people think of Guerrero at third.

On a related topic-it seems that most people prefer to have a bad fielding LF than RF. Are there really that many more plays to/from RF?



http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=65159

[honestiago1]

I don't know exactly how well it translates, but the big thing about RF is the arm, throwing to third on the single. If I had to guess, though, I'd say the number of 'X' chances for OF corners is probably identical (one chance per side of the pitcher card, on average).

I did a quick, non-scientific study using Soto, a deinite fly ball pitcher. The X-chances rate out evenly. He gives up few hits, so it was easy to check where his went. On one card, he had a single(rf) against RH (nothing specified against lh). On card #2, he had a double and single to rf (both against LH's). Card #3 he had a single-rf against righties (and nothing specified to lf). Card #4 had an extra hit specified to cf, nothing to l or r. Card #5, nothing specified.

I checked Morris, who gives up more hits. Here's what I got:
#1: an extra single to rf, nothing specified to lf
#2: extra single to lf and cf, not to rf (but a triple/flyout to rf)
#3:singles to lf and rf, plus a db/flyout to rf
#4:singles to rf, cf, lf
#5:doubles to single and rf; single to cf

I didn't even try counting flyball (rf) b's, but someone refresh my memory: does the super advanced game weight those throws as "longer" or more difficult?" Certainly the hits to rf throwing first to third have to be weighted in favor of the baserunner, so that someone trying to go on a '0' arm would get a plus, but anyone trying on Barfield would still be penalized.

So, with no real basis whatsoever, I'd say range in RF is nice, but arm is as important. Where do you hide a bad fielder? Depends on the erating. High e-ratings at 3B will hurt worse than in LF because the splits for 3B are wider (meaning more frequent references to the e-rating). I'd put Pete in LF, if I could, 3B if I had to.

P.S. I am playing in a league in which I have a 4e37 as my regular 3B (Darrell Evans). He's only made 2 errors through 15 games (though I think that could change any moment -- I remember Hojo dropping 4 errors in one game on me in a previous league).

[1st Command Commando]

Guerrero is a masher in 4 of 5 years. Go get him. I assume Skates is your DH, so your outfield would be Gywnn, Van Slyke, and maybe some sort of platoon with Greenwill. What's wrong with playing Guerrero at 1B? Once the season unfolds, you can see if Decinces is worth keeping at 3B. If not, then Pedro becomes your everyday 3B. Joyner has some pretty good years at 1B, so you can also play him and see what happens before deciding exactly where Guerrero winds up. Nice looking offense, by the way!

[albert2b]

Agree with Commando. Guerrero's one of the few you have to keep in your lineup, no matter what the cost is defensively.

Personally, I'd keep him at 3B. Makes his bat that much more valuable. Besides that, his 4 at 3B, at the very worst, will cost you only a single. His 4 in LF could cost you a triple. His e-rating is high but I've always been of the opinion that balls are hit far too frequently to the corner spots (both OF and IF) to worry too much about defense over there...especially when the bat is as potent as Guerrero's. And considering that guys like Hojo, Bonilla, Horner and the aforementioned Evans are commonly selected to play 3B, sticking Pedro there should be no problem.

Just my .02 :)

[AdamKatz]

thanks for the advice.
I am playing at Royals so I think Joyner is far more valuable than Decincess. Decincess has one amazing year, but Joyner is more consistant. I need to dump one to get cash. I still need to upgrade C and two pitchers. (hopefully I can get a good 2b at 2-3 million). Also, as you mentioned, Greenwell may need to platoon against LH, (and the same goes for Van Slyke if I am stuck with him). Any suggestions for a cheap platoon for Greenwell?

[albert2b]

Dernier, Redus, Wiggins and Cedeno come to mind as fairly inexpensive platoon LF in KC.

If you want to go really cheap, Bailor has 2 really nice seasons vs LHP and will only cost you .75 :)

[honestiago1]

I love Bailor. Great flexibility and chance for really 3 very good cards (that 6L card platooned for about half a season for my one and only championship club).

I think IF defense is more important than OF defense, as well, and that the chances of giving up the triple are much less than the consistent errors the 3B will make when he hits the splits (again, on the 3B fielding chart the game uses, there is a greater chance to check e-rating at 3B than in the OF).

[AdamKatz]

on further review, just about every cheap RH 3B is available. if I need to platoon, Guerrero can go to left and seitzer, rose, tabler or Tphillips can cover third.

[Ducky]

Grab Guerrero. Use him as DH. Pick-up Pagliarulo if available to hit against right handed pitching if you want a platoon guy with Decinces. If you dump Decinces, look at Buechele and Pags as a platoon if you need to free up cash.

[AdamKatz]

I dont think thats a good plan for Royals. By the way, 2 other teams in my division are royals. and there is one busch and 2 fenways. No ack Murphys, one Wrigley and one Riverfront. Not a good league for HR hitters.