by mesquiton » Wed Nov 30, 2005 7:03 am
I generally try to avoid these chatboard pissfights, but I've had a couple of drinks so I'll go ahead and tell the truth...but don't bother arguing with me, as I'll likely not respond.
First, it's a simple mathematical fact that there is FAR more luck involved in a 5-game series, or even a 7-game series, than in winning a division. I'm disappointed that Luckyman would even dispute this, as I have great respect for his sabremetric abilities, and I know he knows this is true...even the stupidest managerial moves in a short series are easily overcome by a couple of lucky dice rolls.
Second, I think ET has been VERY lucky this season with his success in the playoffs. Not knocking his talents, but he's still been lucky as hell, as there are at least a couple dozen Tour managers at least as good as he is...even I left him in the dust in our Tour auction league. I also beat Luckyman in 5 games in the finals of another Tour league, but I don't claim to be a better manager than either of them. Luck will out. Even over a 162-game season, the same team against the same competition will typically win plus-or-minus 10 games over 10 sample seasons, based on luck alone...this fact has been well documented by simmers. That's a 20-win/loss swing potential in any given season, due to nothing more than dice rolls, with the same manager managing the same team against the same competition. Among the top managers, luck will determine the division winners more often than not, and in the playoffs luck will determine the winner WAY more often. In a typical playoff between good Tour managers, maybe 10% of the difference is skill, the rest is luck. There's just not that much difference in the skills of the top managers, and not that much a manager can do to overcome the luck factor.
Third, I agree with Teepack (and ET at least in part) that the fairest way to handle tour points is to count all events equally, allow the worst league to be tossed, and eliminate the "star" event bonus points. I'm guessing Cristano is mostly in agreement with this as well...?
Finally, my money's on Cristano to win the finals, unless I get there, in which case I've gotta be the favorite. I'm also guessing Cristano gets more than ET ever did.
:D