eckstein homers twice off sheets at pnc? wtf? explanation?

[drew6013]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/league/boxscore.html?group_id=1721&g_id=302

he has N power at a pitchers park and sheets doesn't have a homer on his card vs righties.

[geekor]

Well 2 things...

a) he doesn't have N power, he is W

b) He has a HR roll on his card, 1.25 chances. He got lucky, twice, that's why it's a dice game.

[drew6013]

A.) You're right W power. So what does that actually mean?

B.) 1.25 chances? what does that mean?

[geekor]

W powered means if it was a BPHR, it would become a single, so there is no way he can hit a HR this way.

On his card vs R, there is a Hr chances on 1-5 on the 8. When rolling 2d6 there is 5 chances of an 8 coming up (statitics, 2-6, 4-4, 3-5, 5-3, 6-2).

I'm guessing you didn't read the FAQ? On how to read a card? Or the newbie advice thread in the strategy section?

On any card there is 108 chances vs R and 108 vs L.
3 columns for a 2d6 (2 six sided dice). the chances of getting a 2 are only 1 (1-1), the chances of getting a 3 are 2 (1-2 or 2-1), and so on and so on.

2: 1 chance
3: 2 chance
4: 3 chance
5: 4 chance
6: 5 chance
7: 6 chance
8: 5 chance
9: 4 chance
10: 3 chance
11: 2 chance
12: 1 chance

36 chances per columns, 3 coulmns per side = 108 chances total.

His Hr chance is on an 8 (5 chances) but he only has 1/4 chance on that roll of getting it. (1-5 out of 20) = 1.25 chances of hitting a HR (out of 108).

[KnightErrant]

[quote:e03439aaad="drew6013"]B.) 1.25 chances? what does that mean?[/quote:e03439aaad]
Saying it another way...Out of 216 possible die rolls (3 six-sided dice), Eck has 5 chances to roll a 2-8. Then the split deck give him 5 chances in 20 (25%) to hit a home run.

5/216 = 0.023 (2.3% chance of rolling a 2-8 )
.023 * .25 = 0.0058 (factor in the split deck, Eck has a 0.58% chance of hitting a homerun on any single at bat)

.0058 * 216 = 1.25 (the chances that any individual roll will result in an Eckstein home run)

[drew6013]

Thanks knight and geekor. I read it I was just unfamilar with you lingo and how you got to 1.25. Much thanks.