pitchers offensive cards don't translate into performance...

[MARCPELLETIER]

luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 05:11 AM
I am currently playing my first league in which pitchers come to hit. In theory, the two best hitting pitcher should be Marquis (5W) and Wolf (8N). They hit respectively .120 and .048. These batting average are very very low, given that 5w and 8N are fairly good hitting cards.

I then looked throughout the league. There is in my league 12 starting pitchers with a 3W rating. Assuming they all have the same number of at-bats, their mean batting average is .132. Making the same assumption, the nine pitchers with a 2W rating have a mean battering average of .151; the six SP with a 6N rating had a mean batting average of .114; and the 25 starting pitchers with a 1w rating had a .124 batting average.

That's after 100 games.

8/5.....094
6.......114
3.......132
2.......151
1.......124

It can be fairly stated that these results are contrary to expectations, where 8/5 should be the best, and where 6s and 3s should be better than 1s.

My conclusion is that these results are a random sample of a same average, probably because TSN is using the same batting card (the same template) for all pitchers, regardless of their hitting stat (1w or 8N).

Note: True, the pitchers who have hit homeruns in my league are all normal hitters (all 6N). I make the assumption that these homeruns came on the pitcher's card, and that the system adequately look if the pitcher is a normal or a weak hitter. Thus, the presence of homeruns from hitting pitchers doesn't mean they are all employing the same template card.

Am I wrong, or does TSN needs to fix this?


teepack
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 10:12 AM
Two observations:

A) You've got way too much free time on your hands!
B) That is unusual, to say the least. I can't believe the programming would be so difficult to factor in the eight different pitcher's hitting cards. Must be a fluke.


Blueturtle
Veteran
Posted June 20, 2005 10:46 AM
Strat/TSN needs to do away with non-DH leagues...

My own question as an aside...I thought the higher the number the better the pitcher hitter. Unless I read the original post wrong, there was an expectation a 5 would be up with an 8? Or is the comparison 5-8 to the other cards?


teepack
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 12:57 PM
As I recall from my days of actually playing with the cards many years ago, the 5 card was for pitchers who didn't hit for a high average, per se, but actually managed to hit a home run. The 5 card contained a home run roll. If a pitcher hit more than one homer but still hit for a low average, they might make him an N hitter but still give him a 5 card. An 8 card was for a pitcher who hit for a high average (relatively speaking, of course) but who didn't hit any homers.


JKolak
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 01:18 PM
Incorrect Teepack. A 5W rated pitcher has no HR chance on it. The 3 column is loaded with on base and averages out to about .333. If a pitcher is a 5N, the only HR chances are on the pitcher's card.


BK
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 01:47 PM
quote:
BTW, BK, sometimes, it helps to have an ounce of good faith...
Is your ounce gone now?

Good job spotting this.




luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 02:23 PM
Thanks BK for the compliment. I have to say: it is precisely because of my good faith in Strat (in handling pitcher's batting average) that I started to suspect that TSN (or the code into it) is not doing its job.


quote:

You've got way too much free time on your hands!

Well, I have to tell the story here. I picked up Randy Wolf in my team because he was a lefty (good for my Shea team), and because of his 8N. I mean, who would want to draft Randy Wolf anyway, if it wasn't of his bat .

So, as I saw him get into the high 5.00 (worst era in my squad), I was telling myself that, at least, he had a bat. But when I saw his batting average getting below .100, I was getting

Then I noticed that Marquis was hitting .128 as well. So I decided to check the whole league. Took me an hour.

But I want to have other confirmations, to see if I am getting it right or not.


BK
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 02:42 PM
Have you checked your past leagues? 2001-2003?

Having only nine generic pitcher batting cards is weak. There are plenty of past pitchers who could really hit, like Wes Ferrell (a better hitter than his brother, the Hall of Fame catcher) and Terry Forster (.397 lifetime). Not so sure about today's pitchers, though.




luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 03:11 PM
BK, that is my first and only non-DH league so far.

CAn't speak for the past, but it is sure that seeing Maddux going from 8N to 1w to 3w year in year out might be a bit rocking and reeling, but hey, Strat is about replication within a margin of errors of one season, not about reflecting the talent of an overall career.


teepack
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 03:20 PM
Maybe it was the No. 6 card I was thinking of. You are right. The 5 card was loaded. I remember Rick Rhoden and that 5 card. Sweet.


BK
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 03:46 PM
Within individual pitcher hitting seasons there is much greater variation than in careers, so that's even more reason not to have just nine generic cards.

I strongly suspect that no pitcher has had as many as 216 ABs in a season since 1901, so their having hitting cards is going to be subject to distortion in the SOM system. Even guys who had over 400 IP in the earliest part of the 20th century did not crack 200 ABs.

We just started a non-DH NL-only league, so I'll keep an eye out for this. In the meantime, suggest you email Bernie.




RiggoDrill (cicerocapones)
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 03:57 PM
luckyman, I've noticed the same thing in Non-DH ATG leagues. Pitchers w/ great hitting cards in big hitters parks don't seem to do much. I didn't look at a large enough sample to draw any conclusions, but its a compeling theory.


luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 04:14 PM
But before I send any email to Bernie, I had other people to check their league and come up with the same conclusion.

If 8N hitters are getting .260 elsewhere, then I might have been just unlucky with Wolf.


Blueiguana
Professional
Posted June 20, 2005 04:22 PM
BK,

I could be wrong (not without precedent!), but I think that SOM gave Red Lucas a separate hitting card in the 1927 set, when he had 150 AB. Of course, he played a couple of games in the field. I can't recall whether or not you are permitted to use his hitting card when he pitches.


qksilver
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 10:45 PM
I don't know about ATG, but my understanding was that in other games SOMO is not using the pitcher's actual hitting stats in the game, but that in fact it's a standard RH or LH pitcher hitting card. Lucky, your note doesn't say which game you are playing....


Valen
Veteran
Posted June 20, 2005 10:57 PM
qk, your opinion on this means a lot. So would like to clarify what you are saying. When you say standard pitcher hitting card are you referring to the 8 pitcher hitters cards correspoinding to his hitting rating or are you saying there is a single standard card used by all pitchers?

The starter of this thread if I understand correctly is saying his evidence would indicate all pitchers are using a single standard hitter card as there is insufficient difference between the 1 or 2 rated hitters and the 7 or 8 rated hitters.

Or have I misunderstood the position of those posting before me?


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 11:11 PM
I assume that luckyman was talking about a 2005 league. I'll check my completed 2005 no-DH league, if somebody can tell me how to look at pitcher's batting stats. When I click on a team, all I see is the pitchers' pitching and the hitters' hitting stats. When I click on league stats - http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/league/stats_leaders.html - all I see is the batting average and homerun leaders for pitcher's batting, but not full hitting stats for them. Is this all I should be looking at?


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 11:14 PM
Here are the leaders from my league:

quote:
---PITCHER'S BAT AVG---
B.Radke POT .221
B.Arroyo POT .214
A.Pettitte YIN .200
M.Wise EAG .200
B.Webb HOR .200
R.Halladay LIO .194
J.Santana DIA .188
M.Buehrle BAR .186
J.Peavy RUS .184
W.Miller LIO .183
C.Zambrano BON .180
T.Lilly BAR .169



quote:
-----PITCHER'S HRs-----
J.Wright RUS 2
C.Zambrano BON 2
C.Pavano BRO 2


qksilver
All-Star
Posted June 20, 2005 11:51 PM
Valen, my understanding that there is one single card being used for all pitchers and the only difference is whether they are listed as a LH or RH hitter, so that the appropriate side is rolled on the pitcher card in the event that the result is on the pitcher card & not the hitter card.

Now, I have no idea where I read this, in FAQs, in a post by some TSN guy somewhere, etc., but I had the distinct impression that was the case....


luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 01:09 AM
quote:
Valen, my understanding that there is one single card being used for all pitchers and the only difference is whether they are listed as a LH or RH hitter, so that the appropriate side is rolled on the pitcher card in the event that the result is on the pitcher card & not the hitter card.


I think clearly that another difference taken into account is weak vs normal. But I think qksilver is right, I think there is only one template being employed, and I think this is wrong, because there should be 8 distinct cards reflecting the pitcher's hitting abilities.

--2005 was the reference.

--to see the batting average of pitchers, you have to look at individual games, and look at the batting average shown for each hitter.

ex.



R.Furcal SS 4 1 0 0 .251 B.Wilkerson CF 4 1 1 0 .234
D.Bell 3B 4 1 0 0 .265 F.Thomas 1B 3 1 2 1 .254
E.Young LF 4 2 1 1 .245 Y.A LF 4 1 0 0 .338
J.Thome 1B 4 4 3 2 .317 J.Mauer C 4 1 2 1 .356
J.Burnitz RF 4 1 1 3 .261 J.Macias 3B 4 0 1 1 .308
A.Jones CF 5 2 2 4 .253 R.Ledee RF 4 1 1 2 .120
B.Boone 2B 4 1 1 0 .258 J.Valentin SS 4 0 0 0 .167
B.Schneider C 4 0 2 2 .271 M.Giles 2B 4 0 2 0 .305
J.Westbrook P 4 0 0 0 .100 R.Wolf P 1 0 0 0 .048


Wolf hits for .048, and Westbrook for .100.


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 07:59 AM
luckyman, if you went through dozens of boxscores, then I think teepack was right about you having too much free time. But seriously, I thank you once again for bringing something interesting to our attention.

When I play in leagues where pitchers hit, I have been trying to draft good hitting pitchers. Apparantly, this has been useless. If pitcher's hitting is all the same card - as qk is saying - then I wonder if TSN pricing has been charging for pitcher's hitting ability anyway?

If all pitchers have been using the same hitting card, this is wrong. It also contradicts the instructions on "How to read a [pitcher's] Strat-O-Matic card":

quote:
Hitting ability -- The first number is his overall offensive rating (1 is the worst; 8 is the best). The second character indicates whether the pitcher has home run power (a "W" means no; an "N" means yes). The third character is what side the pitcher hits (righthanded, lefthanded or switch).


QDoc
Veteran
Posted June 21, 2005 10:53 AM
I think this calls for some clarification from TSN. Based on the instructions, which Glenn kindly posted, I was under the assumption that pitchers hitting cards were used too. If not, then this is another case of them telling us one thing and doing another, and it needs to be fixed. I know I've drafted pitchers with slighly worse stats because of their hitting, much like luckyman suggested, and I'm sure others do the same thing.

We need to know what's going on, and make sure that we're told what the situation is.

Good research luckyman.


Larry
SportingNews.com Member Services
"Get Involved"
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 11:10 AM
I'll have Bernie check it out. I doubt it's anything more than a coincidence or bad luck.

Larry
TSN Member Service Manager


BK
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 12:38 PM
Anybody have any idea what, if it is in fact what is being used, this generic pitcher hitting card looks like? Can we assume it has W power?




teepack
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 03:25 PM
In my non-DH league, which is almost finished, there are four pitchers batting .200 or higher, and another seven batting .170 or higher, so I don't think they could all be using the same pitcher's hitters card. Although it should be noted that two of the pitchers who are batting .200 (tied for third among pitchers) are #1 hitters cards. As I recall, about the only thing on that card was a walk at 3-10 or something. So they clearly are getting some action off the pitcher's cards. The other two that are hitting above .200 are a #2 and a #3.


freshmeat
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 03:35 PM
so how does one see how the pitchers batted?


teepack
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 03:39 PM
Here's what my pitchers are batting in this league (all are #1 hitters except Garland, who is a #2).

Orlando Hernandez - .077
Jeremy Bonderman - .066
Jon Garland - .149
Jason Johnson - .146
Tim Wakefield - .089
Chan Ho Park - .083

This is an AL only league, too.


BK
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 04:16 PM
quote:
so how does one see how the pitchers batted?
Check all the boxscores for the last week of the season.




freshmeat
All-Star
Posted June 21, 2005 07:21 PM
another reason i don't play in non-dh leagues!!


taxi
Veteran
Posted June 22, 2005 07:35 PM
Don't abolish non - Dh leagues . Also , doesn't one of the cards ( # 2 ? ) have a reading like SINGLE ** and then lineout ? Every other card only has one * single / lineout readings .


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted June 22, 2005 07:46 PM
Here are what the pitcher's hitting cards look like, courtesy of Mighty Moose's website:

Click here

Click on "ATG II Helper Page" on top left of that website

Scroll down to bottom of right panel

click on links to see pitcher's hitting cards



Glenn F
All-Star
Posted June 28, 2005 10:03 PM
quote:
Larry
SportingNews.com Member Services
All-Star

Posted June 21, 2005 11:10 AM

I'll have Bernie check it out. I doubt it's anything more than a coincidence or bad luck.

Larry
TSN Member Service Manager


Find anything??? ???


Bernie H.
SportingNews.com
All-Star
Posted June 29, 2005 04:31 PM
We're using the 8 pitchers' hitting card system, just like the board games does, and just like the CD-ROM game does.

Given the small sample sizes usually associated with looking at pitchers' hitting, you're going to get much more varying results than you do with full-time hitters, which produces a lot of fluctuation as it is.


RiggoDrill (cicerocapones)
All-Star
Posted June 29, 2005 05:00 PM
thanks Bernie.

I think I'm gonna tray an ATG team with all Pitchers hitting cards #8 and see what the stats look like at end of season - should be about 300 PA.


luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 30, 2005 06:46 PM
I made a quick look into ATG2 seasons.

So far not so good.

I have identified 4 players with 8N cards:

Carlton
Drysdale
Vander Meer
Byrne

I have found out so far 11 teams in which they went to hit. Here are the results:



NAME BA league_id game_id
Carlton 0,154 201 951
Drysdale 0,107 222 963
Carlton 0,123 222 970
VanderM 0,086 222 947
Drysdale 0,092 224 969
Carlton 0,070 224 947
Drysdale 0,066 242 952
Byrne 0,075 242 957
Byrne 0,027 244 935
Drysdale 0,111 244 949
Carlton 0,086 245 956
Average 0,091


This message has been edited. Last edited by: luckyman, June 30, 2005 09:03 PM


luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 30, 2005 06:49 PM
For info, here are the 5w I have identified so far:

Cy Young
Johnson
Zachary
Ruffing
Sturdiant
Hughes
Dickson

I have only identifed a few seasons with these pitchers, but the trend is similar:

Cy .082
Joh. .118
Zac .071
Cy .120

average 0.098


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted June 30, 2005 07:36 PM
Luckyman,
For comparison, do you want to post a sample of 1W pitchers from the same teams as the 8N examples above?

This message has been edited. Last edited by: Glenn F, June 30, 2005 07:47 PM


luckyman
All-Star
Posted June 30, 2005 09:00 PM
NAME BA league_id game_id
Carlton 0,154 201 951
Drysdale 0,107 222 963
Carlton 0,123 222 970
VanderM 0,086 222 947
Drysdale 0,092 224 969
Carlton 0,070 224 947
Drysdale 0,066 242 952
Byrne 0,075 242 957
Byrne 0,027 244 935
Drysdale 0,111 244 949
Carlton 0,086 245 956


Comparison players, taken from the same teams, following the preceding order---1st 1w hitter (unless otherwise noted) I see on the roster:

Darwin....0.067
Welch.....0.048
Rau(2L)...0.095
Grim......0.125
Lolich....0.126
Caldwell..0.122
Welch.....0.155
Maxwell...0.056
Gentry....0.096
Ames......0.103
Ford (3w).0.115
Average...0.101


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted June 30, 2005 11:30 PM
luckyman's data

11 seasons of 8N pitchers: .091 average average
11 seasons of 1W teammate of 8N pitcher: .101 average average

Assuming that each of these pitchers had about 100 at-bats per season, then the .091 for the 8N's were based on about 1100 at-bats; likewise, the .101 for the 1W matched teammates was based on about 1100 at-bats as well. For this number of at-bats the difference between .091 and .101 is most likely dumb luck (statistically insignificant); but there is no way I would believe that the 1100 at-bats from the 8N pitchers were based on a better hitting card than the 1W pitchers, with just extremely bad luck.


BK
All-Star
Posted July 01, 2005 04:44 PM
Bernie, you may THINK TSN is using the eight-card system, but based on luckyman's data could you please check whether it's hooked up right?

Here's another question. Does TSN maintain a database of results? Whether it does or doesn't, is it possible for TSN to check all pitcher hitting seasons for the 8Ns and 1Ws?




Elko Skipper
Professional
Posted July 01, 2005 10:53 PM
HAL certainly acts as if pitchers' hitting cards are in effect.

One-third of the way through a 2005 season, I have had Brooks Kieschnick (8NL, currently batting .333) and Glendon Rusch (6NL, currently batting .125) come in as pinch-hitters for other pitchers when my position players have been depleted.

I've also been choosing pitchers in non-DH leagues with an eye toward their batting cards, so I certainly hope they are being used.


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 01, 2005 10:59 PM
quote:
One-third of the way through a 2005 season, I have had Brooks Kieschnick (8NL, currently batting .333) and Glendon Rusch (6NL, currently batting .125) come in as pinch-hitters for other pitchers when my position players have been depleted.


This is interesting. It probably means that Hal is able to see the value of the hitting rating.

This would mean that, if there is a defect in the system, it is perhaps in the fact that TSN assumes a 1 hitter for all starting pitchers.


Dean
Strat-O ergo sum
Professional
Posted July 01, 2005 11:20 PM
This is actually a conspiracy theory that can be decisively disproven without extensive testing. When you play the CD-ROM game, if you have the card image option, you can see the cards and rolls. And yes, the cards being used for different pitchers' hitting ratings are different.

--
I'm sorry... the card says "moops."


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 02, 2005 12:18 AM
Dean,

it has been already shown in the past that what you find on the CD-Rom might not be exactly as is in TSN.


Dean
Strat-O ergo sum
Professional
Posted July 02, 2005 03:10 AM
I don't know that to be the case, except of course for the very intentional change made to the fatigue system.

--
I'm sorry... the card says "moops."


RiggoDrill (cicerocapones)
All-Star
Posted July 02, 2005 08:55 AM
Here's an Experimental ATG Team with the following Pitchers Hitting Cards...


Hitting
Pitcher Bats Card

Bob Lemon L 7N
Dizzy Dean R 7N
Pat Malone L 7N
Early Wynn S 7N

Craig Lefferts L 5W
Bob Klinger R 5W
Jim Hughes R 5W
Allan Russell S 5W

Doug Sisk R 1W
Dave Morehead R 1W



I'm going to look at the Combined Batting Stats for pitchers (total hitting stats minus batting stats for positional players) at the end of the season. Sisk & Morehead will get very few at-bats and the team is in a good hitting park, so I'd hope that, as a group, the pitchers will hit over .100.

.....................


BK
All-Star
Posted July 02, 2005 12:41 PM
Dean, remember please that treyomo proved that there was a governor on hitters (i.e. Ruth/Bonds/etc. would hit 50 HRs the first half of a season and 10 the second half), same as in SOM, and TSN knew nothing about it. As I recall, there was something called "improve statistical accuracy" that was on, and TSN has now turned it off.

When something as weird as that happens, and nobody in charge knew it was happening, surely there are other things that could be wrong as well.

That's why customers compile databases. TSN should have one, too, just to check on stuff like this.




Dean
Strat-O ergo sum
Professional
Posted July 02, 2005 01:10 PM
Understood, but that's a different story. That was something that was "broken" on the CD; naturally, it was still broken when ported over here. Now, on the other hand, we're talking about conspiracy theories about things that actually work right in the CD game.

--
I'm sorry... the card says "moops."


sandlotshrink
All-Star
Posted July 02, 2005 03:09 PM



luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 02, 2005 05:50 PM
I think there is a conspiracy against conspiracists.

BK
All-Star
Posted July 03, 2005 03:24 AM
Actually sounds like the same old story to me.

"Improve statistical accuracy" wasn't "broken" on the CD or in TSN/SOM, it was working perfectly well. (Full disclosure: I'm in the minority that's in favor of it.)

From the evidence, it appears that the pitchers' hitting cards are not working well here at all. If there is any evidence that they are working well, I'd be delighted to see it.

No one used the word conspiracy until Dean did. And Dean is a SOM employee, is that right?

We're just talking about something possibly being busted. Prove that it's not, and we'll quiet down.



This message has been edited. Last edited by: BK, July 03, 2005 04:26 AM


Dean
Strat-O ergo sum
Professional
Posted July 03, 2005 02:47 PM
No, I'm not a TSN employee, I just helped with the pricing in the past. But you know what I mean; my point is, the thing worked the same way on the CD as it did in TSN. Apart from the deliberate change to pitchers' fatigue, I believe this is always the case. And the pitchers' hitting works correctly on the CD, therefore, it must work in TSN.

--
I'm sorry... the card says "moops."


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted July 19, 2005 06:01 PM
Did we ever get this resolved? It seems more and more to me that the online game is not using the various pitchers' hitting cards, regardless of what Bernie said above.


BK
All-Star
Posted July 19, 2005 06:51 PM
No.
quote:
And the pitchers' hitting works correctly on the CD, therefore, it must work in TSN.
Sorry, I don't quite follow that.




BK
All-Star
Posted July 19, 2005 07:03 PM
In my only current league (NL only):

---PITCHER'S BAT AVG---
P.Byrd ZOO .241 3WR
B.Lawrence FLA .234 1WR
O.Perez TRA .205 1WL
J.Weaver BER .194 3WR
G.Rusch SWI .182 6NL
D.Haren EYE .182 1WR
J.Wright SWI .180 6NR
B.Sheets KHB .175 1WR
A.Pettitte ANG .175 2WL
W.Williams EYE .171 3WR
R.Wolf ROM .167 8NL
A.Eaton PAS .167 3WR

Pitchers' HRs:
D.Willis 4 3NL
K.Wood 3 6NR

Actually, these results look like pitchers' hitting is functioning as it should. Only 4 1's in the top ten in BAvg, which is reasonable.

Dean, thanks for clearing up your employment status. My mistake.




luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 19, 2005 10:24 PM
BK,

if you could give the number of pitchers who are 1w among all starters in that league, I will be able to do a stastical test.

Formula for me so I can retrieve it back:

P(x) = C(N,x) (p)x q(1-x).


RiggoDrill
Veteran
Posted July 20, 2005 09:11 AM
Here's a 48-game update on my Experimental ATG Team with the following Pitchers Hitting Cards...


Hitting
Pitcher Bats Card

Bob Lemon L 7N
Dizzy Dean R 7N
Pat Malone L 7N
Early Wynn S 7N

Craig Lefferts L 5W
Bob Klinger R 5W
Jim Hughes R 5W
Allan Russell S 5W

Doug Sisk R 1W
Dave Morehead R 1W



Batting Stats Through 48 Games...


Name AB PA H BB BA TB SLG OB OBP

Freehan, B. 161 174 40 13 .248 72 .447 58 .335
Kluttz, C. 31 32 8 1 .258 9 .290 9 .281
Cash, N. 157 170 38 13 .242 69 .440 52 .308
Kluszewski, T. 35 36 8 1 .229 8 .229 9 .250
Schoendienst, R. 172 180 39 8 .227 54 .314 50 .276
Boswell, K. 13 16 5 3 .385 5 .385 8 .500
Boggs, W. 202 223 58 21 .287 76 .376 79 .353
Banks, E. 197 213 54 16 .274 90 .457 71 .332
Grubb, J. 131 146 29 15 .221 50 .382 44 .301
Roenicke, G. 63 69 12 6 .191 34 .540 18 .254
Doby, L. I 185 200 53 15 .287 103 .557 68 .342
Clemente, R. 186 194 56 8 .301 73 .393 64 .328
McBride, T. 19 20 6 1 .316 7 .368 7 .350

Batter Totals 1552 1673 406 121 .262 650 .419 536 .321
Pitchers ONLY 114 116 9 2 .079 11 .096 9 .081

TOTALS 1666 1789 415 123 .249 661 .397 546 .305



So far pitchers are "hitting" .079 / .096 / .081. Not too good...

.....................


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted July 20, 2005 01:08 PM
Riggo,
Thanks for your data. I think it supports the doubts of Luckyman, me, and others.


BK
All-Star
Posted July 20, 2005 02:04 PM
luckyman:

29 of 71 starting pitchers in this league are 1W. Note that this is an NL-only league, so the percentage of 1Ws is low.




luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 21, 2005 04:36 PM
Wow, as you say, BK, pretty high ratio of non-1W pitchers. In this case, to find 4 1w among the top 10 hitters (4/10, 40%) is exactly on line with the proportion of 1w hitters in the set (29/71, 41%). No need to do a stat test. If anything, it provides support that the best theory which explains the top 10 hitting in your leage is purely random chances.

Just to elaborate further: the distribution of 1w hitters in the population is 41%. So, if there was a factor (like having good hitting cards) that could intervene in the sample of the 10 best hitters, we would expect to see a lower percentage of 1w in that specific sampling (for example, we would expect perhaps 3 players out of 10, perhaps 2 players out of 10). On the other hand, if we expect that no factor kicks in---in particular, if we expect that SOM doesn't employ the 1-8 hitting cards--we would expect that the percentage of 1w hitters in the sample of best hitter varies around the percentage observed in the population (that is 40%). While not conclusive---the sample is relatively small---this particular sample supports more the latter explanation than the former one.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: luckyman, July 21, 2005 05:43 PM


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 21, 2005 05:48 PM
From the homeruns stats, it is clear that, when Som-Hal looks at a pitcher's card to see if the pitcher is a N-hitter or a w-hitter, it finds the correct information (otherwise, Willis wouldn't hit a homerun, because, as a 3N hitter, there is no homerun on his hitting cards...all homeruns have to come from the opponent's pitching card).

So, in my opinion, all the information for pitchers about hitting abilities are correctly entered in the system, and Bernie has already told us that all 8 hitting cards are entered in the system, so my explanation for the observed phenomena is that, for some unidentified reasons, SOM-Hal employs by default the 1-hitter card for all hitting pitchers.


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted July 21, 2005 10:53 PM
lucky, I'm confused by your last paragraph above. You seem to be concluding that all 8 pitcher's hitting cards are entered into the [TSN] system, but only one card (the "1" card) is used by "SOM-HAL."

I'm not following this. Does that mean that if someone buy the 2004 season computer game disk direct from Strat-O-Matic, you're guessing that games played on a home computer would use the 1-card for all pitchers? Furthermore, are you saying that The Sporting News online league software uses all 8 pitching cards, but the SOM computer game used within ignores the distinct cards?


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 21, 2005 11:14 PM
Sorry, I meant TSN-SOM, not SOM-Hal.

So it should be read:


quote:

So, in my opinion, all the information for pitchers about hitting abilities are correctly entered in the system, and Bernie has already told us that all 8 hitting cards are entered in the system, so my explanation for the observed phenomena is that, for some unidentified reasons, TSN-SOM employs by default the 1-hitter card for all hitting pitchers.


tersignf
Professional
Posted July 22, 2005 06:18 PM
just because a homerun is hit doesn't mean the N-W rating is being applied properly--could very well be a natural HR.


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 22, 2005 10:55 PM
quote:
could very well be a natural HR.

Not in Wills case. His rating is 3N, and there is no natural homerun on a 3 card. It must be read on the pitcher's card.


novie
All-Star
Posted July 22, 2005 11:16 PM
I have been helping Moose compile the 2005 records and out of 28 leagues I have done, the leading average for a pitcher is .271 for Beckett who is a 2WR. No one is even close to that mark.

In a current Tour League THRU 54 GAMES

---PITCHER'S BAT AVG---
A.Burnett NS .227 2WR
B.Madritsch ALD .222 1WL
N.Robertson CON .214 1WR
M.Buehrle SLU .200 1WL
J.Bonderman SLU .188 1WR
T.Glavine ROY .185 3WL
V.Padilla TOU .176 1WS
T.Lilly POR .154 1WL
T.Hudson STO .150 1WR
M.Clement NS .148 2WR


The odds of this being a random set of bad circumstances for better hitting pitchers is akin to Willie Harris types flooding the Top Ten in hitting for position players.
Schmidt has the only HR, 6NR


tersignf
Professional
Posted July 23, 2005 08:18 AM
sorry--I read it wrong. I was referring to a natural hr on the pitching pitcher's card, ragarding willis ever hitting a homerun.
I'll shut up now!
This is one of those cases where one would think SOMO/TSN would at least add some kind of conclusive statement one way or the other, with proof.
I'd love to see how the code is implemented for instance. If nothing else, would help to know if checking all those settings is doing what you think it's doing.


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted July 23, 2005 03:38 PM
novie,
your data above is very helpful. Do you have at-bats for these pitchers? In other words, is Burnett's batting average based on 50 at-bats or 500 at-bats?

Also, do you have batting data for the supposed best hitting pitchers (Schmidt, etc.)?


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 24, 2005 01:11 AM
Just want to make glenn's statement more precise: the best hitters (at least when it comes to battering average) are rated 5 (Marquis) or 8 (Wolf), not 6 à la Schmidt.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: luckyman, July 25, 2005 02:34 PM


MightyMoose
All-Star
Posted July 24, 2005 12:14 PM
quote:
Posted June 29, 2005 14:00
thanks Bernie.

I think I'm gonna tray an ATG team with all Pitchers hitting cards #8 and see what the stats look like at end of season - should be about 300 PA.


Riggo, been there done that. I created a team back in ATG1 with all of the best hitting pitchers in the game.

It was my opinion that they contributed no significant difference to the success or failure of the team. And they weren't within MILES of their cards. Nuff said.

MM


RiggoDrill
Veteran
Posted July 24, 2005 12:25 PM
Figures I wasn't the first person to try that one...


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted July 25, 2005 10:42 AM
luckyman, I assume all 5-8 pitchers' hitting cards have higher batting averages than the 1-card.

By the way, Schmidt is a 6N.


novie
All-Star
Posted July 25, 2005 01:02 PM
Glenn... the Tour League Top Ten numbers I would guesstimate would be for around 50 AB's given the number of games played.

I am yet to figure out how to locate the pitchers hitting on an individual basis (other than going by each box score)... been relying on League Stats page so far.


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 25, 2005 02:34 PM
Glenn,

the best cards are 5 and 8. These cards are comparable to some hitters.

Second class include 4 and 7.

Cards #3, #2, and #6 are only slightly better than #1.


Glenn F
All-Star
Posted July 25, 2005 11:25 PM
luckyman, this is getting a little off-subject, but your statement directly above doesn't make sense to me. For example, how can you say that a #6 is only slightly better than a #1?

First, from the rules. Click on any pitcher's Strat card, and then click on "How to read a Strat-O-Matic Card." You will see this:
quote:
Hitting ability -- The first number is his overall offensive rating (1 is the worst; 8 is the best). The second character indicates whether the pitcher has home run power (a "W" means no; an "N" means yes). The third character is what side the pitcher hits (righthanded, lefthanded or switch).


Second, here's a look at the pitcher's hitting cards look like, courtesy of Mighty Moose's website:

Click here

Click on "ATG II Helper Page" on top left of that website

Scroll down to bottom of right panel

click on links to see pitcher's hitting cards


It looks to me that "8" is the best card, "7" is the second-best card, etc.


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 25, 2005 11:45 PM
#8: 29 chances of hit, 4 chances of walk.
#7: 19 chances of hit, 4 chances of walk
#6: 7 chances of hit, no walk
#5: 33 chances of hit, 4 chances of walk
#4: 21 chances of hit, 3 chances of walk
#3: 12.6 chances of hit, 3 chances of walk
#2: 6 chances of hit, 3 chances of walk
#1: no hit, 3 chances of walk


luckyman
All-Star
Posted July 25, 2005 11:48 PM
I didn't calculate chances of homeruns, but #8 has the most. #1 to #5 has none.

So as I was saying, there is really 2 series:

with no power:
from #1 (worst) to #5 (best in this series)

then with some power:
#6 (worst in this series) to #8 (best)

In terms of batting average, the best card is #5.

This message has been edited. Last edited by: luckyman, July 25, 2005 11:59 PM

[The Biomechanical Man]

Can anyone provide examples where it looks like pitcher's hitting cards are being used? I still think that only one standard card is being used for all pitchers, and a pitcher's supposed hitting rating is being ignored except for his N or W.

[MATTSCHMIDT]

I think the fact that Johnny Podres (2WL) holds the batting avg record for pitchers tells you everything you need to know about this. Even with pitchers getting only about 80 AB per season, this would be the equivalent of Leo Durocher winning a batting title.

I've felt for a long time that pitcher's hitting cards were not being used. If they were somebody at some point would have had a season where Drysdale or Ruffing hit .500.

My own theory is that the pitchers 1-batting card is the only one loaded in the system and that 2 thru 8 are not loaded.

[RiggoDrill]

This ATG2 team has all the best pitcher's hitting cards in a big hitters ballpark - I didn't see any difference from any other team...

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=51354

[bleacher_creature]

I wonder why we can't get a straight answer from TSN/SOMO on this question.

It's not as important as starving children in Africa, but it is important to this dumb game.

[Semper Gumby]

[b:79b925d212]Yikes[/b:79b925d212]

A lot of bits and bytes killed here and not one mention of [b:79b925d212]sex[/b:79b925d212], [b:79b925d212]Brittany Spears[/b:79b925d212], [b:79b925d212]drugs[/b:79b925d212], or [b:79b925d212]rock and roll[/b:79b925d212].

Incredible :D