What are the odds of this happening...3X !

[visick]

I had Jose Reyes, a AA stealer, gunned down 3X last night in the same game.

This was against Liriano and his +3 hold and Coste, 4(0) T-9.

Mathematicians/Statisticians...please calculate. :? :? :?

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

If he was held he with that combination he would be 18 stealer. that is .90% chance of being successful. this makes it 10% failure.

so I believe the odds of the same even happening three times in a row would be

.10^3? or .10 cubed or 1 in a thousand?

and stop your whining you won the game! :P

[visick]

Yes I know I won the game fm.

Where is the whining? I just amazed that he was caught 3 frickin times and wanted to know what the odds were.

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

so i looked it up.. it is 1/1000 to be caught three times sequentially if he was held.

if he wasn't held it would be around 1/10000 plus or minus.

[BRADSANDBOTHE]

His AA Steal rating is a mistake.......It is for Dancing in the Dugout.....not for stealing.

He probably stopped and did a couple dance steps, had a dog and a beer, sat in a lawn chair and watched Coste fumble the ball a couple times and then while he was folding up the Chair, he got his finger caught and this caused him to be thrown out 3 times.....so you see it is possible.

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

coste is not THAT bad.... 0 arm the t-9 can create the odd problem though.

[FRANKMANSUETO]

I hear that all AA stealers have a code that states his cleats come off when attempting a steal and he also falls down and can't get up. :shock:

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

nah yah maroons! AA etc means nothing in superadvanced.

[zonachoke]

Actually... the odds of it happening 3X depend on:
(a) If Reyes was trying to steal 2B or 3B.
(b) How often Reyes tried to steal with a good jump vs. a bad jump.

I'll suppose he tried to steal 2B all 3 times... and assume he was a "held" runner. A held runner is always thrown out on a roll of "20"

Reyes' stealing matrix is 2-6,11* (19-15)... which means:
(a) If the sum of 2d6 is 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 or 11, he gets a "good" jump, with his chances based on {Top #}+{Pitcher Hold}+{Catcher Arm}-2: 19+3+0-2 = 20 of 20 ... but really 19 of 20 (5% failure rate) because he's held.
(b) Otherwise, his chances are based on {Bottom #}+{Pitcher Hold}+{Catcher Arm}-4: 15+3+0-4 = 14 of 20 (30% failure).

If Reyes got 3 good jumps... the odds would be 5%^3: 1 in 8000
If 2 good & 1 bad... 5% x 5% x 30% = 1 in 1333.33...
If 1 good & 2 bad... 5% x 30% x 30% = 1 in 222.22...
If 3 bad... 30%^3 = 1 in 37.037...

If THAT wasn't confusing enough... there's the pickoff rule... which counts as a Caught Stealing (and would show up in the play account as Pickoff)

Pickoffs can happen 5% of steal attempts... and fail based on +/- the baserunner's bottom number. In Reyes' case 1-15 = safe, 16-20 (25%) = picked off. 25% of 5% = 1.25%, so on each SB attempt, Reyes has a 1.25% chance of being picked off.

[chasenally]

WOW to zonachoke on that post. And GO BEAVERS. What's the chance they will repeat as National Champs in the College World Series. I think it is very good. GO BEAVERS!!!!!!!!!!!!