Live Draft Analysis

[Runnin Rebel]

Has anyone kept track of an analysis of the Live Drafts where it can be determined what position players are most likely to be drafted??

Something like [url=http://startournaments.com/star_2007/d_anal/aps_l10.htm]this[/url]

[geekor]

Major Deegan (who now runs the live draft site) could probably give us that info. It depends on if he has the time and the inquisition to.

[durantjerry]

If you just quickly look at the player list, you should be able to come up with what should be the most valuable positions. Who cares what someone else did IMO.

[Runnin Rebel]

I can read the available list and rate players. I know centerfield and left-handed relievers are pretty shallow, second base and first base deeper this year.

What I want to determine is where certain players are most likely to be drafted. It can be a help in deciding whether to pass on a pick or wait for later rounds

[J-Pav]

[b:9088c80323]RR[/b:9088c80323]:

I disagree that CF is shallow this year, but I like your strategery. Unfortunately, even if you knew with 95% certainty who would be next to go, the odd pick could still ruin your best laid plans. Case in point is the FA frenzy, where I am regularly shocked at other managers' top picks, not to mention who remains [i:9088c80323]undrafted[/i:9088c80323].

Something I found helpful during this year's first live draft was to simply chart the picks by position. I just made 12 columns for each manager and wrote 2 thru 9 across in a row, so I could scratch off the 6 when someone took a shortstop. If you're near a tail, say eighth, and have eight picks between your two, it can be helpful to know that managers 9-12 have all already chosen a CF when you're trying to prioritize between a 2B and a CF. You know you can likely get by waiting for the CF.

Most live drafts develop trends, and sometimes you can see a panic triggered over a position, but that's hardly something you can anticipate. Plus, the player pool is so deep and so efficiently priced that there are no real tragedies if there's a run on say, third basemen.

Other than that, there's just too much beauty in the eye of the beholder. In our draft, Ben Sheets was taken with pick 167. That's a [i:9088c80323]huge[/i:9088c80323] steal in my opinion, but it wouldn't have worked for me because I went with a four man rotation. Plus, how could you ever plan for that anyway?

I can tell you from our draft that (most) catchers and (most) rightfielders were the very last to go. Everything else went pretty evenly distributed over the course of the draft. The first reliever was made with pick 38. In my opinion, you could wait until [i:9088c80323]after waivers run[/i:9088c80323] and still get that same guy, so it's a very inefficient pick. But maybe that manager was a "one run game pitcher's park guy" who felt that the stud reliever was the straw that stirred the whole drink. So who's to say.

I think it's more important to have your own theme and stand by it rather than trying to forecast what everyone else wants to do. Even guys with steadfast themes make irrational picks (to me) that make complete logical sense to them. So plan your draft, draft your plan and just be as efficient as you think you can be with what you want to accomplish in building your team.

My two.