Base running strategy question.

Base running strategy question.

Postby dacelo » Sat Dec 10, 2005 8:38 pm

I’ve been adjusting my base running setting of my teams everyday based on the opposing team’s outfielder’s arm (mostly that of the CF). Great arms (-3 or better) = conservative; moderate arms (-1, -2) = normal, (0 or worse) = aggressive. Unfortunately, I’m not necessarily seeing the expected (or desired) outcomes on a regular basis.

Now I’m wondering if the settings refer to the actual safe range after considering the base runners’ speed minus the outfielder’s arm and position. Something like aggressive running means you go on 1-8, normal running means you run on 1-10, conservative running means you don’t go until 1-12 or better.

So which way is this setting handled? If the latter, what are the actual ranges for each setting?.

Many thanks.

ps - same question regarding stealing.
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Postby Hack Wilson » Sat Dec 10, 2005 8:46 pm

You're doing more work than you need to. I always set my "baserunning" to aggressive. I don't have the breakdowns in front of me, but it's like if there's a 75 percent chance the runner would be safe taking the extra base, I want him to go for it. Giving him the green signal on, say, 60 percent, is too conservative.

Yes, the setting refer to the safe range after everything (arm, speed) is taken into account.
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Postby The Last Druid » Sat Dec 10, 2005 10:44 pm

Excellent question.

Does anyone know the actual ranges per setting?

I've often wondered about this myself.
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Postby Maxie Minoso » Sun Dec 11, 2005 11:38 am

[i:6b0d6593c3]Does anyone know the actual ranges per setting?[/i:6b0d6593c3]

My setting range for base running ranges from sometime conservative to mostly normal. Twice I set it to aggressive and twice Sam Leslie was thrown out.

Opponent's outfield arms weren't [b:6b0d6593c3]that[/b:6b0d6593c3] bad for Sam to test them.

That told me that guys with 9 speed would try to take the extra base at the aggressive setting. That also told me everything I needed to know about using the aggressive setting.

Maxie
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Postby Rob55 » Sun Dec 11, 2005 11:47 am

I'd NEVER even consider using the aggressive setting
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Postby MATTSCHMIDT » Sun Dec 11, 2005 1:35 pm

So Maxie...

Tie game, 2 outs, Leslie on 2nd, Pete pitching, Bowa on deck, say a +1 arm in OF. Are you telling me that on a base hit you would not want Leslie trying to score with a 60% chance of success (9 + 1 + 2 (2 out adj)) and instead you would want Bowa trying to drive him home from 3rd in the clutch with less than a 20% chance of success?
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Postby Rob55 » Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:03 pm

curious.....how many times you thinkthat situation comes up a season?.... I mean Leslie playing Bowa on deck Pete piching? .... I take Leslie stranded at 3rd that one time ....in exchange for him being safe 10 other times....but thats just me I guess
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Postby dacelo » Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:28 pm

Hack Wilson,

Perhaps its semantics, but for me, going from a 75% chance of sucess to a 60% chance would be becoming more aggressive, not more conservative.

When I played the board game, safe on 1-12 was my first criteria, followed by who was up next, then other considerations. (I must admit that those other considerations included how often the dice were going my way that day and how much succeeeding would upset my opponent :lol: )

This is another instance where seeing the actual dice roll would really help in understanding what is going on.
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Postby The Last Druid » Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:41 pm

I have my own Pete beating strategy in the playoffs, which has worked very well so far. And with weak hitting teams that means aggressive baserunning and stealing, hit and run's and bunts. Otherwise I usually leave it at normal except with some bomber teams where I don't want runners being thrown out and then I will use the conservative baserunning setting.
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Postby Maxie Minoso » Sun Dec 11, 2005 2:57 pm

[i:d0b3dd62db]Tie game, 2 outs, Leslie on 2nd, Pete pitching, Bowa on deck, say a +1 arm in OF. Are you telling me that on a base hit you would not want Leslie trying to score with a 60% chance of success [/i:d0b3dd62db]

That's what I'm saying.

I would want HAL to put in a pinch runner with a 14 or more rating. (insert that smiley icon here.)

The scenerio you paint might come up once in my ATG2 lifetime (Came close on my latest team. Bowa batting ninth and Leslie at DH@7th. But Sam didn't face righties, Buckner did. Pete's team had Willie in center. One doesn't go aggressive with Willie out there.)

What I don't want is a slow runner tossed out in the fourth or seventh innings, as Leslie was.

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