Identifying RPs

[yak1407]

Granted, it is early, only three games, but I'm going to watch this.
I've left HAL to manage my bullpen to start the season and I noticed he brought Juan Agosta in twice, once for the save, once to close off a game in a non-save situation. Both were wins.
He was not used in the series opener where I was shellacked.
Both times, the first batter Agosta faced was a lefty. I have yet to set avoid LHB/RHB on the pitcher cards. However, on balance, Agosta is tougher on lefties than righties in four of the five seasons on his card.
So I checked RP usage in the first game, albeit, it was already out of control.
HAL used Bedrosian, Lucas, Howell. Bedrosian came in to face an RHB and sure enough. Three of five years, he was tougher on RHB
Lucas came in to face an RHB, although he is an LHP. Four of his five years show that he is stronger against RHBs.
The opposite is true of Howell, he's an RHP who is tougher against LHB, four of five years. His first batter was an LHB.
If I am reading this correctly, HAL is in fact going to the pitcher it believes will be most effective.
I've also noticed in the past there are guys HAL does not use. I suspect they are the weakest guys in the bullpen and you can get a pretty quick indication of this. If you go nine or 10 games and a guy is not used, dump him and look for someone else.
I'm going to go back and look at my previous seasons to see if that last fact is true.
Anyone notice anything similar?

[Panzer ace]

Keep in mind that you dont know what cards the batters have. I have seen Hal bring in a 'bad' LH RP just because the batter was bad against LH. I dont think you have enough information. Its too soon. I also think Hal likes to spread around the innings. It seems to me, he doesnt like to get guys 'tired'. You have to look at a game in context. Hal may have pulled a guy because he was tired, not because the next guy was better vs a RH or LH.

[yak1407]

Good points.
And while I know it is early, it is something I'm going to watch to see if the trend continues.
I'm not sure HAL likes to spread the bullpen work around.
I have noticed there are pitchers he only uses in one-sided games and there are pitchers he seldom uses.
So I think it does a better job of situational relief pitching than we give it credit for.
The only reason I made my early season observation is because it was just too co-incidental.
Plus, I'm desparate to get a line, any line, on pitching.

[LMBombers]

If you drop/add a pitcher after the first 3 games of the season you could be making a big mistake.

[yak1407]

I don't pla on dropping anyone soon.
I have two RHPs left in my pen and I want to see if HAL uses them in a close gameor save situation.
if they are not used, I'm guessing that HAL has seeded them five and six in my pen in which case I can sit them if the other guys are going well, or cut them to see if I can find better guys.
Usually I base pitching performance on actual performance. An RPs WHIP be beat up pretty badly with a bad outing every five or six appearances. So in five games they shut down the opposition, but then in one outing they struggle. Over the course of a season it means a guy can be effective without the numbers to show for it. I had Willie Fraser in what turnedto be one of his best years, a sub 1.2 WHIP and his actual number for me was over 2.
But, like everyone, I get frustrated when someone I am counting on isn't doing it. i saw a thread here that said Henke was a lock, though myself fortunate to get him in the draft and afer 25 appearances, he had lost six games and had a WHIP of 1.74.

[honestiago1]

That was probably my thread. Henke is a lock for 30 saves if you use him all year. I have him on three of my teams. On one of the teams he went through a very bad stretch, but righted it. He now has 29 saves (and an unusually high 3.18 ERA). If Henke isn't performing for you, it could be league composition -- perhaps a stacked R or L card and the league features more strong hitters of the opposite side. And there are some cards where Henke gives up the dinger.

Anyway, in the thread where I touted Henke, I also mentioned that, if he isn't performing, his high salaray makes him a good dump to tag a couple of additional relivers. You might try Gary Lavelle. He has some very good years, and is in the 3M range. Or see if one of your .75's is having a good year, and allow him to be the closer. Drop Henke for additional bullpen help, or to bolster the lineup.

[yak1407]

Yeah, it was really hard for me to dump him, but those late-inning losses were getting harder to take.
I suspected he would right himself in time, but I felt I was falling further out of the race with every lose.
So the experiment ended and I went back to the .75 guys. Not that it helped, I'm on track to lose 100.
I had Bob Kipper save 40 games for me and I switched to Warren Brusster late in the season when I noticed he had a hot hand and he added another six.
Love those cheapie guys.

[bjs73]

[quote:1ec3d1dd71]Keep in mind that you dont know what cards the batters have. I have seen Hal bring in a 'bad' LH RP just because the batter was bad against LH. I dont think you have enough information. Its too soon. I also think Hal likes to spread around the innings. It seems to me, he doesnt like to get guys 'tired'. You have to look at a game in context. Hal may have pulled a guy because he was tired, not because the next guy was better vs a RH or LH.[/quote:1ec3d1dd71]

My thoughts as well.

[quote:1ec3d1dd71]I have two RHPs left in my pen and I want to see if HAL uses them in a close gameor save situation.
if they are not used, I'm guessing that HAL has seeded them five and six in my pen in which case I can sit them if the other guys are going well, or cut them to see if I can find better guys.[/quote:1ec3d1dd71]

The actual game CD [b:1ec3d1dd71]cannot[/b:1ec3d1dd71] simulate a team in a league without some type of "Computer Manager" being created first. The "Computer Manager" consists of the lineup cards, the rotation, basic bullpen management, h&r-bunt-steal, strategies, etc.

In the TSN port of the game, we have access to change and alter these items as well. Thusly, we are basically creating a "Computer Manager" to manage in our place.

Now here is the million dollar question...

[i:1ec3d1dd71]If the CD game engine cannot "sim" without a "computer manager" in place can the TSN port of the CD game do it?[/i:1ec3d1dd71]

I do not really know for sure. What I do know is that the Super Advanced HAL Settings could not make it over to the port as stated by the TSN support staff. Too complicated they said.

However, if we leave blanks on our management strategy screens, the TSN port functions just fine. Therefore, I am likely to conclude that the TSN port does indeed "fill in the blanks" and create a "computer manager" based on what we do not fill in.

So, if this theory is correct, then you'd be correct, YAK, that HAL has probably seeded your relief pitching 1,2,3,4,5, etc.

This is probably why many people let HAL manage the bullpen for them so that they can be led to the true closer on their team.

But I can tell you this. When I see HAL filling out the lineup cards and the bullpen management with a HAL generated computer manager in the CD game, I really, really hate it most of the time. HAL really does need a guiding hand in all aspects of management.

I can't tell you without a shadow of doubt what the logic lines are for HAL but my observations over the years show me that he doesn't always understand matchups/mismatches as well as many people give him credit for. Basically, he doesn't always see the light when it comes to giving the hook.

I believe that he'll strive to bring in an appropriate reliever to create a good mismatch on the call to the pen but it isn't always the guy that you would have brought in. (Just like what Panzer Ace said when HAL "brings in a bad LH reliever to face a weak hitter against lefties.) On top of that, if HAL does get the out he may just leave that guy in since he's got a fresh arm, despite the fact that he's a 4L Lefty facing Dale Murphy in a 5L year. Depending on the situation in the game, that could be devastating.
(Again I am in agreement with what Panzer Ace said.)

[quote:1ec3d1dd71]Usually I base pitching performance on actual performance. An RPs WHIP be beat up pretty badly with a bad outing every five or six appearances. So in five games they shut down the opposition, but then in one outing they struggle. Over the course of a season it means a guy can be effective without the numbers to show for it.[/quote:1ec3d1dd71]

Best advice I can give you is this:

This game is all about getting the good and serviceable cards and retaining them. BUT, Good and serviceable cards don't always = good stats though. There is a usually a ton of talented hitting in the 80's game and leagues are often created with many hitters type parks as well. (Oh yes, and let's not forget how much the DH rule really does matter to the bottom line of a pitcher's stat line as well.) This greatly skews the pitching stats. You've got to go with other "indicators" in the stat line to tell you when a pitcher is on a good/serviceable card or not.

For example, I just finished a league where I picked up Dave Stieb off the waiver wire at the mid-point of the season. He had a 100 innings pitched and here was his stat line:

[quote:1ec3d1dd71]Yr Tm G W L S IP H ER BB SO ERA WHIP
SIM RAP 15 4 6 0 104.0 93 54 44 86 4.67 1.32
[/quote:1ec3d1dd71]

This was my divisional rival that dropped him. I had a hunch based on these stats that Stieb was on a better year than that. And if I was correct, it certainly was much better than some of my current pitchers. Stieb pitched 100 innings for me as well but his stat line didn't look a whole lot better:

[quote:1ec3d1dd71]SIM MON 17 8 4 0 108.2 95 50 48 80 4.14 1.32 [/quote:1ec3d1dd71]

But at playoff time, my patience paid off:

[quote:1ec3d1dd71]Stieb, D. '84 R S7* 2 0 0 22.1 10 4 5 15 1.61 .67 1L 5.31M [/quote:1ec3d1dd71]

As you can see, Stieb's best year is '84 so the hunch was correct.

Also keep in mind that serviceable years from pitchers can be just as successful as guys who are in excellent years. Serviceable to me means a guy like W. Hernandez in his '80 or '86 season. His strong 6L and 7L cards are quite useful out of the pen against your LH hitting foes...

[i:1ec3d1dd71][b:1ec3d1dd71]as long as you setup your computer manager to take advantage of his strengths ahead of time and keep him away from his weaknesses...[/b:1ec3d1dd71][/i:1ec3d1dd71]

That is the biggest reason why I think people pull the trigger too soon on pitchers. They don't set them up in the computer manager to be successful (from the very beginning of the season) and when the HAL guided stats start rolling in, they get disappointed that it may not be the lights out year they were hoping for, and may even look worse than that in the stat line, and are thusly dumped. Take the control away from HAL, get your relievers into the roles they were meant to play, and [i:1ec3d1dd71]then[/i:1ec3d1dd71] look at the stats.

You can make better objective decisions that way.

[yak1407]

Great advice.
I gave up on the theory of letting HAL pick some hitters early in the season by leaving a couple of line-up spots blank when he sat Ogilvie.
I dumped him and he went on to have a great season.
And I do plan to set up the bullpen once I have an idea of who is doing what.
Second series of the season saw Agosta come in again to face an LHB late in the game in a non-save situation. (I picked him up on a whim on the eve of the season opener and he's pitched three games without surrending a run)
Bedrosian came in to face an RHP late in the game, non-save situation, pitched 2 1/3s of scoreless, hitless ball. So I went back and looked at his first appeance where he went 2 2/3s but game up four runs on four hits and saw that in the middle of two bad innings, he had two strong one.
So I getting a feeling that he's my guy against RHBs and Agosta is the LHB guy.
Still have no sense on the other four guys.
But, I'll keep watching to see if there are real early season, first 15 to 20 games, indicators of who is going to do well in the pen and who isn't.

[Outta Leftfield]

Lots of great stuff from bjs. On Stieb--one of my favorites-- another indicator is his platoon data. His bad year is the only one where he pitches better vs. RHP than LHP, and it's dramatic, a 6R. It's hard to tell after he's been dumped what his platoon numbers are, but I've actually gone so far as to dig through past box scores to see how he does vs RH and LH.

Another indicator is the WHIP. In his bad year his WHIP is 1.59, so if he's posting a 1.32 WHIP, that's actually a strong indicator that it's one of his good years. One year I picked up Stieb after he'd bombed out somewhere else. His WHIP was 1.58, which seemed like a bad sign, but I checked his platoon data and he definitely seemed to get lefties out better than righties--suggesting one of the good years. So I picked him up and he went 16-8 with a 3.68 ERA, leading my team to a championship. The year turned out to be 83, not his best but very good.

The flip side is that in a recent league I despaired of Dave Martinez after 13 games even though the platoon data suggested a good year. I dropped him, somebody else picked him up, and he went 7-2 with a 3.00 ERA. That team made the playoffs and I missed the wildcard by one game. :( Maybe Martinez would have made the difference?