X-chances

[honestiago1]

Has anyone run enough statistical simulations to show how many times, on average, a fielder's 'X' rating gets hit? I am running a few computer leagues at home, and based on a minimal number of simulations, it seems like:

a) X-ratings are hit about 5 times a game
b) 2B, SS are each hit 1 to 1.5 a game (2-3 at most)
c) CF is hit about every other game

-During games, OF throwing comes into play 2-3 times a game.
-Catcher's plate-blocking ability is about once every other game.
-Fielder's range rating, regards to bunts, I'd say every other game.

Conclusions:
1) There's no reason to be obsessed with 1's in the middle IF. A 1 is a bonus over the course of the season, but you can get by with a 3 at a middle IF position (possibly two 3's, if they both hit). A pair of twos' or a 2-3 in the middle IF won't kill you, if they have bats.

2) OF arms are definitely important, and tend to be underrated. They prevent stretching 2B's into 3B's, advancing on flyballs and scoring on sac flies. Good OF arms can save as many runs as a 1 in the middle IF. There seem to be more instances of arms coming into play than range ratings in the OF (judging the games I am playing on the computer).

3) The age-old advice that e-rating is more important than range at the corners is absolutely true. You want sure hands over there. Range is secondary. Get a good bat with low e, if you can. If not, then just get a good bat.

4) Whole hog D (getting great fielders at the middle IF, CF, C, and RF [arm rating, esp.]) does provide benefits over the long haul. If you're handling 4 of 5 X-chances a game, you're preventing baserunners. If you must be weak somewhere in the equation, be weak at C, or use an average range CF with a good arm [anyone ever play Barfield in CF all year long?]).

[YountFan]

I agree with your conculsions. Nice insight and well written.

SS-2B-CF range and low are nice, but not necessary at ALL positions. You can live with less. The issue with CF errors is the tend to go for 2 or 3 bases and can cost you a game. Less range with less e is better.

OF- Minus arms in CF-RF are nice, plus arms are not a option, but zero can be OK. I'll live with a plus arm in LF if he is Tim Raines. Low e ratings are nice too, less you can hit and throw like Dave Parker.

C - Get a hitter and an arm, but I'd rater have a hitter.

But over 162 strong defense does give you can advantage. In any given game it may fail you, but over the long haul, like you say, it could be worth a few victories.

[Panzer ace]

There is one factor that you are not taking into consideration. The 'value' of a '1' on the IF isnt just giving up less hits. A '1' turns more double plays. You wont see that in this game because we dont see the rolls. I promise you that when you play a '3' at SS he has cost you more than just the extra hits. Runner on 1st with one out. SS-X occurs. A '1' turns a DP and the inning is over. A '3' gets a FC and the next batter hits one out. That '3' just cost 2 runs and the inning is still going. I would (and have) played '3's up the middle. I just think you need to consider more than the extra hits when making the decision.

[YountFan]

Excellent point of the DP's PA. It is obvious when you actually lok at the fielding charts. Also C range is a factor in foul balls not being caught, giving the hitter yet another chance. Those never show up anywhere except when playing the board game.

[nycalderon]

There are 30 x chances I believe on each side of the pitchers card. That is 30 in 216 chances. If there are 40 rolls a game the x chances will come up 5.55 times a game.

I think that adds up... a team with all 1's on D can have a considerable advantage over the league.

[honestiago1]

All 1's who are light hitters can improve a team's chances, but 1's at the corners are a luxury, as the splits rating is hit a high percentage of the time. I would add that, if you draft excellent SP's, the need for 1's decreases, since these pitchers preent fewer DP opportunities due to low WHIP. Teams that turn a lot of DP's tend to allow more base runners to begin with. Of course, the 3-4 in the IF does allow more baserunners to advance, rather than getting the force or the DP. But look at the cards -- the DP chances are much higher on the batter's card, rather than the pitcher's card. Pitcher's have up to eight X-chances per middle IF on the whole card.

When considering X-chances, you also have to weight where the X's are. Some X-chances occur on 10's, 11's, 12's (CATCH-X is notoriously found on 4's and 10's, while RF, LF you'll see on 11's, 12's quite often). Remember that SS-x's on say, 5-6 or 5-7 are still only 3 in 63 chances on either side (21 dice combos in each column, 6 columns=126 chances on a pitcher's card; 2 (snake eyes)=1 chance [combo of dice equaling is a 1 and a 1 on 2d6], 3=1, 4=2, 5=2, 6=3, 7=3, 8=3, 9=2, 10=2, 11=1, 12=1 TOTAL: 21 chances; 216 is too high, isn't it? or did I not understand the math?). Overall, you have either 6 in 126 or 8 in 126 for a SS/2B X on a typical card. Less for 3B and 1B (someone may want to check me on this).

As I alluded before about "whole hog defense," 1's will improve overall peformance over the long haul. But you won't dominate if nobody hits. You'll at best be in a lot of games, and have to squeak them out (which means you need good SP and a closer). If you don't believe me, then draft the following IF and see how you do:

Garvey-1B (he's a 1, with a sub-.800 overall OPS)
Doran-2B
Ozzie-SS
Bell-3B (sub-.800 OPS, average)

Then try this IF:

DeEvans-1B
Lopes-2B
Franco-SS
Harrah-3B

Use the same pitching staff for both teams (focus on SP's with low WHIPS, good K rates). Put both teams in a pitcher's park and watch what happens. Bet the second group has a better overall record (because they will hit much better on the road than group 1).

Of course, I'm just forwarding all this for the sake of argument. Just for grins, I will run a couple of computer simulations here at home and see what happens.

All this aside, I do like good defensive players. I'm just seeing that it's easy to get wowed by the 1. A 3 is average, after all. Great players can have average range and still contribute.

[Panzer ace]

I think you are a little off on the math for the chances. There are 108 chances per card. 36 per column. The X chances are standard for all cards. SS has 7chances 2B has 6. It goes down from there. The SS and 2B alone have 13 of 108 on the pitchers card (6.25%). That alone can make quite an impact. I wont attempt to crunch any numbers on what the overall statistical impact would be (I'm a sure there are others who could do this better than I). [/quote]

[nycalderon]

[quote:74e9a46db4="Panzer ace"]I think you are a little off on the math for the chances. There are 108 chances per card. 36 per column. The X chances are standard for all cards. SS has 7chances 2B has 6. It goes down from there. The SS and 2B alone have 13 of 108 on the pitchers card (6.25%). That alone can make quite an impact. I wont attempt to crunch any numbers on what the overall statistical impact would be (I'm a sure there are others who could do this better than I). [/quote:74e9a46db4][/quote]

Panzer -

When calculating the chance that an x-roll will come up ... you need to include the likelihood that the roll may come off the hitters card as well. Yes there are 108 total chances on the pitchers' cards (where the x-rolls appear) but there are also 108 chances on the hitters' cards... making the total number of chances on any given roll [b:74e9a46db4]216[/b:74e9a46db4].

In terms of my count of x-rolls on the cards I may be off because I did it quickly but I think there are 30 total x-roll chances (for all positions). If so, there is a 30 out of 216 chance of hitting any given x-roll... or about 5.5 times in 40 chances.

[BRIANCHIVIS]

I have a team, presently, that has 1 defense at the following positions:
ss Fernandez, 2b Whitaker, 3b Schmidt, cf Murphy. In addition I have a 2 in rf Barfoe;d, and 3's at 1b and lf. Durham, Gibson, and Felder platoon.

Here is my defense with this team.
TEAM G PO Ast OFAst E TC DP GDP PB OSB OCS OSB% AVG
CHI 129 3438 1329 30 109 4876 142 134 7 62 35 .639 .978

You can see the double plays are up, I lead the league by a large margin. But what is a double play worth? I have great defense, and I am still giving up 630 runs. I have Murphy-3 and Barfield-4 in the same outfield and I only have 30 outfield assists; a little over2%. My error rate is also 2.2%. Opponents OBP is .318

Here is the question. What is the thing that hurts the most? I am not sure I value the double play more than a regular out. I am beginning to think that a 3 at a prime MI slot is acceptable. I covet 1's defensively, and this may be one of the best defensive teams I have built. It is still giving up more runs than I would expect. In summary, I am thinking that the most important thing is the e rating. How can you equate defense to runs saved? How many runs should I have given up if the defense were different? I don't really care about the fielding average, but how many runs I am giving up count.

If we could find how much of a difference there is between a 1 or 2 at a given position, we would be able to make a judgement on where to drow the line. Let me illustrate, Lets say you have a choice of ss; Ripken and Fernandez. At what point does Ripken become a better player than Fernandez because he is producing more runs than Fernandez is saving you with superior defense? Also, how much does defense count in a league where everyone is jacking the ball because of small parks?

I really liked the post, and find it to be accurate. Well done.

[nycalderon]

Chief -

I think I have seen those percentages somewhere... and there are fielding charts that can get very specific about the number of extra baserunners and total bases that a notch down in fielding will yield. I have heard 15 % more (more of what I can't remember) between 2's and 1's.

I think with your team what you have to keep in mind is that your pitching and ballpark are important factors to how many runs your defense is allowing. Your defense is likely making your pitchers look better than they really are...

Here is my best defensive club... which won a championship...

[url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/80s/team/team_other.html?user_id=39677]Third Street Bullies![/url]

I do think defense, in the right park, with good enough pitching, can be a foundation for a championship in 80's.