X-chances

[nycalderon]

[quote:b8b5321eba="honestiago"]Chances for a seven are:

1-6
2-5
3-4

Are you reversing the dice to get the other three, al la:

6-1
5-2
4-3

The dice combo is still the same: a 1 and a 6. In strat, it makes no difference if I roll 5-1-6 or 5-6-1. It's still read as a 5-7. There is no "6-1" entry on the card, unless the computer version contains multiple entries that face-to-face does not. Since the game is based on the cards, I don't believe there's any difference between a 3 roll that is 2-1 or 1-2. The result is read as a "3." It's dice total, not digits, unless the game engine is completely different online (which it sure doesn't seem to be).

Therefore, I still don't think the count is right.[/quote:b8b5321eba]

honestiago -

you have to count 6-1 twice because there are two ways to get 6-1. With 2 six sided dice there are 2 ways to get 6-1, two ways to get 5-2, and two ways to get 4-3. That is why there are 6 chances to get a 7.

This is true in both the computer and the board game...

[Outta Leftfield]

I know I'm showing my age a bit, here, but playing the board game does help a lot in understanding the odds in Strato. The first season I played the board game was 1964 and I think the first year for the game was 1962, so I go back a long way. Watching those dice roll for an entire 162 game season can give you a pretty good feel for a card.

I have to admit I never bother to [quote:0086322885]count a card[/quote:0086322885] point by point as YF hinted one could do, but you can learn a lot just by eye-balling a card closely if you've got a fairly good feeling for the odds.

By the way, in a vet league after I had a rough draft, I've just been chewing on whether to drop Herr at 2B with a team in Riverfront and pick up Frank White. It's a tough call--Herr is a 2e10 while White is a 1e15--edge to White. Edge to Herr for being a switchhitter. Herr has higher OBP, White has higher SLG--slight edge to White in Riverfront?

A lot of people don't like White because of the low OBP, but he's often the only 1 at 2B on the FA table who can actually hit when you're building a team. I finally decided to pick up White because I had 2 non-power guys on the team in Carew at 1b and T. Fernandez at SS and was leary of having 3 non-power guys in Riverfront. Plus I really wanted the 1 to pair up with my 1 at SS for the great range up the middle and all those double plays. My OF is Dawson, Dale Murphy and Lemon, so the whole team has pretty good D. I figure fewer baserunners in Riverfront means fewer three run HRs.

What do you think of that call? Herr is still out there. :wink:

[YountFan]

With Herr on base you can hit some 3 run shots. With White they are bound to be solo, but then White may hit a few. It is all a balancing act. You have to go with what works for you. To me White is over priced.

[Outta Leftfield]

Thanks, YF, for helping me to think this through.

I just dropped White AND Carew and picked up Herr again for White and Leon Durham for Carew. Herr will give me OBP and Durham has more power than Carew and more OBP than White. Fielding takes only a small hit. My net OBP and SLG goes up... and I suddenly have 1.36M to play with. Time to go shopping.... :D

[honestiago1]

I understand the logic of counting dice combinations, but a seven is still a seven. Whether you get a 2-5 or a 5-2, it STILL adds up to a freakin' seven. I don't really see the logic in analyzing whether you get a 1 on die A or a 6 on die A, since you still need a 6 and a 1 to get 7, no matter which dice is read first, since the question I'm posing is, "How often will two dice total 7?"

This may cost me in Vegas, true, but I guess I'll just have to live with my ignorance. (Somehow, this whole thing reminds me of when I GM'ed a fantasy game in which I had this one guy who went on and on about the way his Elf Warrior was dressed, to include an ornate description of the silver belt buckle -- does that sound like anyone who frequents this site?). :shock:

[nycalderon]

[quote:b611e3ef2c="honestiago"]I understand the logic of counting dice combinations, but a seven is still a seven. Whether you get a 2-5 or a 5-2, it STILL adds up to a freakin' seven. I don't really see the logic in analyzing whether you get a 1 on die A or a 6 on die A, since you still need a 6 and a 1 to get 7, no matter which dice is read first, since the question I'm posing is, "How often will two dice total 7?"

[/quote:b611e3ef2c]

honestiago-

I'm going to explain this again because I think this is important ... I don't think you can read the cards properly without knowing it...

The 7 on a strat card is a representation of the number of ways that 7 can occur when rolling 2 dice. There are 6 ways that a 7 can occur: 6-1, 1-6, 3-4, 4-3, 5-2, 2-5. It's not about which die is read first. What is important is that 7 occurs more often than any other number. That is why hits and homeruns on 7 are so important. 7 is three times as likely to come up as a 3 or 11. 7 is the most probable roll.

There are 36 combinations when rolling two dice and 7 accounts for 6 of those combinations: 16.67%. There are 5 combinations that will result in a roll of 6 and 5 combos that result in a roll of 8: 13.89% each. There are 4 combinations that will result in a roll of 5 and 9: 11.11% each. 3 combos for 4 and 10: 8.33% each. 2 combos for 3 and 11: 5.56% each. and 1 combo for 2 and 12: 2.78% each. Add all those percentages up and you get 100%.


So the 7 on a strat card really stands for 16.67%, which is the chance that any roll of 7 will come up.

does that help???

[honestiago1]

...and leaving the Academy. These perepatetic philosophers are hurting my Strat game. Down with Socrates! Give me my calculator and bookie number. I have decided to modernize! Roll, thou dice, with thy 108 chances! :shock:

(P.S. I am reeling because my 85-win team has to sweep with 3 games left to get in; 85 wins, and I'm in FOURTH PLACE, where've I've BEEN all year. Four teams over .500 in my division, the rest of the league has TWO -- TWO teams over .500 [and those are both in one division; the other will have a team in the playoffs at sub-.500]) AHHHHHHHHH!)

[nycalderon]

;)

good luck tonight...