The Secret Formula 2007

[J-Pav]

[color=darkblue:a1a4b674f3][i:a1a4b674f3]The general who wins a battle makes many calculations in his temple before the battle is fought. The general who loses a battle makes but few calculations beforehand. Thus do many calculations lead to victory, and few calculations to defeat: how much more no calculation at all! It is by attention to this point that I can foresee who is likely to win or lose.[/i:a1a4b674f3]

--Sun Tzu, the Art of War[/color:a1a4b674f3]




[size=24:a1a4b674f3][b:a1a4b674f3]The Secret Formula (tm) 2007[/b:a1a4b674f3][/size:a1a4b674f3]

Welcome all to The Secret Formula 2K7. This is the fourth annual installment of The Secret Formula diatribe, where I attempt to share with the newcomers to the game some better vet practice, while allowing the SOM veterans (affectionately referred to as the [i:a1a4b674f3]Old Guard[/i:a1a4b674f3]) an opportunity to voice their own observations and counterpoints.

Normally one would have to wait until December for the new edition, when out of boredom over Christmas vacation I start banging on the keyboard. But I guess we might be seeing some early 2008 cards, so I figured why not kick this off now? Hopefully some of the [i:a1a4b674f3]Old Guard[/i:a1a4b674f3] will show up and we'll get a good discussion going. At the very least it should save us a week or two of reading posts that are more or less the same thing over and over.

I present you,

[size=18:a1a4b674f3]The Secret Formula (tm) 2007[/size:a1a4b674f3]

[b:a1a4b674f3]I. Salary Construction
II. $32 million on pitching, $48 million on hitting (or thereabouts).
III. Spend for "1s" and "2s" at SS, CF and 2B.
IV. Score Runs and Do Not Allow Runs
V. Choose Players Suited to Your Park
VI. Worship HAL
VII. Win your division.[/b:a1a4b674f3]

* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *

Hey Gang,

In an effort to push my community ratings points a fraction higher, I hijacked the content of my own post and moved it over to my [i:a1a4b674f3]sporting blog[/i:a1a4b674f3]. You can read all of the details of the original [b:a1a4b674f3]Secret Formula[/b:a1a4b674f3] post over there, where I hope to add even more insight geared toward enhancing your Strat-O-Matic Online experience.

I hope you'll visit and vote favorably if you like what you're reading. If not, let me know why and we can go from there.

Thx!

[b:a1a4b674f3]J[/b:a1a4b674f3]

:D :D :D

[theClaw]

Thanks for the time it took to make up this post, good info.

I'm back after about a three year layoff. What I have found is that in hitter parks spend more on good pitching and go for cheap ball park guys and in pitcher parks high priced obp% guys with two or possibly three pure homer guys. Then go with less money on pitching that allow ballpark homers. It took me awhile to learn that in the past but when I went that route it has led to a better winning %.

[visick]

Excellent stuff J-Pav.

Many thanks... :!:

visick

[keyzick]

Great post...thanks for taking the time to write it.

Now...the secret(s) for '08 will be.... :?:

[Play By The Rules]

Aw geez, here we go with all of this again... :roll: :wink:

[geekor]

[quote:a373d91a94]IT'S ALL LUCK! [/quote:a373d91a94]

I've been saying this for well over a year with most managers telling me I'm full of it :roll:

[J-Pav]

[b:fa547cd765]TheClaw[/b:fa547cd765]:

Welcome back after your layoff! While the game from three years ago [i:fa547cd765]feels[/i:fa547cd765] like night and day from SOM 2007, if you've read my posts over the years you discover that some things are frighteningly unchanged. The biggest difference from then and now is [i:fa547cd765]balance[/i:fa547cd765]. Your short post hit it right on the head.

Here's some additional food for thought:

[b:fa547cd765]The Beane Count [/b:fa547cd765]

Concocted by ESPN.com's Rob Neyer and named for Oakland A's General Manager Billy Beane, the Beane Count is derived by summing a team's ranks in home runs hit, walks drawn, home runs allowed, and walks allowed.

Check out this September 5, 2007 article from Baseball Notes:
http://somebaseballnotes.com/

Articles like these are great vitamins for burning intellectual energy when you've run out of things to obsess over.

The SOM Beane Count, which had been going the way of the dodo over the last few seasons, appears to be gaining relevancy again. Here's how a newbie can absorb a few nuggets into their strategery:

I took a ten team sample (the first ten teams) from my best records teams data and found that winning teams tend to hit 7.5% more homers than the league average and walk 14% more than the league average. They also give up 3% fewer homers than the league average and they surrender 4% fewer walks.

The average Net Homers plus Net Walks for each of these teams was over 115. The VAST majority of this positive figure comes from the [i:fa547cd765][b:fa547cd765]net walks[/b:fa547cd765][/i:fa547cd765]. This is borne out by the fact that the only discernible difference to the naked eye between a winning team and an average team (with regard to offense) is the slightly higher OBP for the winning teams (.339 versus league average of .331).*

*[i:fa547cd765]Incidentally, I'm finding (in my opinion, not fully researched yet) that the Big Bomber teams tend to do well when the entire league is bomber oriented (or when the average number of home runs per team is way north of 200). These teams appear to do much worse in the usual "pitcher friendly side of neutral" ballparks that you usually see in any given league. You might remember the thread about league ballparks discussed by [b:fa547cd765]luckyman[/b:fa547cd765] and [b:fa547cd765]worrierking[/b:fa547cd765] which I mentioned in last year's Secret Formula post.[/i:fa547cd765] http://forums.sportingnews.com/viewtopic.php?t=160988&highlight=secret+formula+2006

Eight of the ten teams had positive Beane Counts. Two didn't. [i:fa547cd765]Both of those two were mine![/i:fa547cd765] :?

So does any of this matter? You can be the judge. But just before the league starts, if you look decidedly short on walks, you are definitely swimming into the current. If you need to fill one position, maybe be mindful of going for a few more walks (obp oriented) rather than batting average, slugging or defense.

Winning teams average 219 home runs for, 597 walks for, 198 home runs against and 503 walks against, versus a league average of 204 home runs and 524 walks per team.

[b:fa547cd765]Socal[/b:fa547cd765] and [b:fa547cd765]keyzick[/b:fa547cd765]:

Thanks! :D

[b:fa547cd765]Geekor[/b:fa547cd765]:

It's not ALL luck! You might only be a tweak or two from getting it back in hand. It's another goofball cliche, but I really want to believe that luck still follows preparation.

Mix it up a little and hang in there. You're too good a manager not to hear Jimi again sooner or later.

[b:fa547cd765]PBTR[/b:fa547cd765]:

(Ladies and gentlemen, Doug Bickel is in da house).

Doug, with [b:fa547cd765]luckyman[/b:fa547cd765] on hiatus, you might have to step up and be my arch-nemesis this year. You know you love this stuff. Come on, harrass me! Besides, I want to know your secret to hanging on to your pre-2006 winning percentage. Throw an old dog a bone!

[bomberny50]

ONE OF THE MOST INFORMATIVE WRITINGS I'VE EVER SEEN. GREAT ADVICE :)

[keyzick]

Better to be lucky than good....BUT, it takes some skills to be able to create enough opportunites for luck to come into play. :wink: