Entering playoffs as top seed - a curse?

[tersignf]

i agree with the idea of it being a coin flip in a short series. Shoot--the examples above show the top seed making it to the finals half the time...I wouldn't expect much more than that in a best of 5--just like real baseball.

Teams with tough * starting pitchers have a big edge this year for obvious reasons.

Folks are always looking for meaning in every series of rolls--it's just the way the dice fall sometimes. :) I love seeing posts like "Santana is 0-5 with a 5 ERA--is this normal--anyone else encounter this?" :lol:

There are no mystery cards here--just long term predictability.
If you play enough times to have a valid statistical sample for this metric, then methinks you need to get out more! Just kidding--if I didn't have a kid tugging on each pant leg I'd be drooling on the keyboard til 2 am every night with dilemmas of RJ or Johan or Drew or Ichiro...

However, on the topic of semifinal curses, conspiracy theories, of course, are always legitimate.

:P

[J-Pav]

[b:599caa7d92]Dingo[/b:599caa7d92]:

This is probably a study for the Strat-O math geniuses!

The tour teams are largely clustered around .500 with a few outliers. I guess that the four playoff teams in any auto-league are a microcosm of that same situation. That is, the four playoff teams are [i:599caa7d92]generally[/i:599caa7d92] all pretty decent teams. The top seed is really not that far ahead of the three others, probably because the SOM pricing really is that much more efficient than the past two seasons.

I would expect that a 25% chance to win it all would pretty much hold across the board. For every playoff team, win two coin flips and collect two credits.

I read somewhere about the results you get when you sim the same season ten times (w/ the same teams). We'd all probably be pretty surprised to discover just how much [i:599caa7d92]luck[/i:599caa7d92] is really involved with this game!

What kind of results were you expecting to see? Do you think the numbers are that far off of mathematical expectation?

Remember too, our small sample is not truly statistically significant. I think Penn or somebody here is a stats major.

[b:599caa7d92]Question to stats majors[/b:599caa7d92]: How many leagues do we need to sample to get our results within that degree of freedom thingy or whatever it is?

:D

[tersignf]

Anyone here ever study quantum physics? It's therapeutic for stratoholics.

You know, it helps you realize that statistically it's possible for that tennis ball to make it through the brick wall when you bounce it against it...so maybe Trot Nixon getting that game winning hit off Billy Wagner isn't all that farfetched...
It serves the same benefit as a good scotch.
cheers
Frank

[J-Pav]

[b:928e30c5bd]Frank[/b:928e30c5bd]:

Sidebar, please.

I don't think I've bumped into you since League 2 Event 2. Has tersignf always been your handle, or was it something different last year?

Poll: Best scotch.

My vote: [i:928e30c5bd]Dalwhinnie[/i:928e30c5bd].

Is the "cheers" thing a friendly sign off, or are you across the pond? Have you heard of "toppers?" (ok, a subtly disguised test designed to ellicit your true geographic locale).

:D

[J-Pav]

[b:ebb98b9153]Dingo[/b:ebb98b9153]:

With regard to the [i:ebb98b9153]conspiracy theory[/i:ebb98b9153] thing...

How many credits do you win in a season? (Rhetorical) The reason I bring it up, is that I imagine most of the better players win most of the credits. If you were SOM, and the most loyal, diehard customers would probably pay to play without winning credits anyway, why reward them with free credits at all?

Trying to understand the business model of growing the SOM customer base, I guess it's worth more to let the best players play for free, and try to create a more knowledgeable "new" customer (through the forums, recognition, etc), so that eventually you have a gigantic pool of equally qualified people playing .500 ball while trying to figure out who are the geniuses and who are the lucky.

I don't know that you need to sabotage a best record team to create more business. But someday, when we're all playing .500 ball, we'll long for our super-relievers, 0.50 starters and 'ol conspiracy theories, just like back in the day!!




:D

[JAYDINGESS1]

OK, one last thing on the conspiracy theory.

I went back and checked the same teams for Wild Card statistics. Here is what I have found.

25 teams - 2 still going

Wild Cards

Won Finals - 10 times - (40%)
Lost Finals - 4 times - (16%)
Lost Semis - 11 times - (44%)

Conspiracy I tell you.

[J-Pav]

:D :D :D

[Jerlins]

Ooh I love a bit of conspiracy, so I'll add mine. Up 2 games to none, R. Johnson in my pocket for game 5 if disaster strikes games 3 and 4. Hal sees I'm about to make it to the finals, says to himself "oh we can't have that now", and proceeds to eliminate Ford, Guerrero, Lawton, and Estrada with injuries, leaving me Ross to catch, Raines Jr. in left, Gomez to dh, and the monster hitting defensive specialist Amezaga to play right field. Needless to say, not even Randy Johnson could save me.

10 playoffs, 5 #1 seeds, 3 #2 seeds, 7 opening round losses, 2 finals losses, 1 championship. Taking it one step further, my divisions were the top winners 6 out of the 10 times, so the seedings weren't always based on the fact that my division was horrid.

Oh, well, I keep pumping out the money in pursuit of a championship. Sure I'd rather be playing for free, but I've yet to find a better value for my entertainment dollar than this.

[tersignf]

[quote:3466ad8769="J-Pav"][b:3466ad8769]Frank[/b:3466ad8769]:

Sidebar, please.

I don't think I've bumped into you since League 2 Event 2. Has tersignf always been your handle, or was it something different last year?

Poll: Best scotch.

My vote: [i:3466ad8769]Dalwhinnie[/i:3466ad8769].

Is the "cheers" thing a friendly sign off, or are you across the pond? Have you heard of "toppers?" (ok, a subtly disguised test designed to ellicit your true geographic locale).

:D[/quote:3466ad8769]

J-Pav,
Same handle...had a different one for a bit in 2003 but this is it in 2005. I don't play too many teams...this year I only did two autodrafts outside the tour.

Best scotch--well I like Dalwhinnie a lot...but I think I'll have to separate it by single malt vs blend...
fav blend- Johnnie Walker Green Label (can be tough to find)
fav single malt--18 yr old Glenmorangie or if easy on the pocketbook--Glenlivet.

Just friendly--I'm in the US--have lived in quite a few different regions due to job relocations, and have friends across the pond.

Top o the mornin tuh ya
Frank
:D

[J-Pav]

:D :D :D