Cheating

[pkwmati]

Interesting topic. I guess I’ve haven’t really thought too deeply about the quantitative ramifications of excessive trading other than cutting $10MM in salary to get $8MM back is obviously unwise. I’m sure this is the exception as opposed to the rule, but a few months ago I made this move in 2007:

CUT: Jeter (11.19), Abreu (6.88), Sheets (4.87), Wainright (1.91)
P-U: Hafner, Reyes, Penny, Sikorski

That’s a grand total of $4.97M in “surrendered” salary. This team was 18-24 when I made the move and ended up 91-71 with a championship.

A little background on my team was that it was specifically built as a small-ball team, but I missed on Hafner in my draft as my 1 “natural HR” guy. But he got cut, and I kept kicking around whether cutting what I needed to would make sense. I got lucky with Penny (14-8, 3.04, 1.23WHIP)

Here’s the team:

[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=9290[/url]

[maligned]

Of course there are situations that any of us can site in which we made improvements or saw someone else make improvements by dropping/adding. The point is this: over the long haul, if you do a good job of constructing your team to do well in your park and division, you are better off standing pat much more often than not.
Mathematically, the results over the long haul are similar to the pythagorean results based on run differential (Expected winning% = Runs Scored^1.83/(Runs scored ^1.83 + Runs allowed^1.83). With salary, a decent predictor of the winning% of a team constructed with average strength would be this: Your salary^1.83/(Your salary^1.83 + Salary cap^1.83). This assumes others aren't making the same drops you are. Over the long haul, your 75M team playing teams of equal construction strength (but 80M salaries) would average about a 76-86 record.
Again, though, the factors affecting the outcome, particularly in one season alone are many: team construction for your park, team construction against your opponents, strength of the league, add/drops performed by others, and pure, unadulterated luck.
In general, I throw a little party at my desk when my division-mates start adding/dropping players. I know some of you swear you can make improvements, but I've yet to be passed in my division by someone who's done significant dumping in-season. I've been passed in-season many times by teams who stick with their original plan and wait for early-season bad results to even out.
I've never, ever played against a quality owner (over .500 career winning%) who has played in a good quantity of leagues against veterans that makes significant in-season drops with a 20% drop penalty.

[chasenally]

I just finished a season where the other 3 teams in my division lost $4 million in salary to roster moves by about halfway into the season. I was loving it when they did it. Felt that I was going to win my first divisional title. I was in second place. The last place team dropped like a rock and lost 100 games. The first place team didn't stay in first but made the post season. The third place team got really hot and I mean really hot and left us all in the dust and finished with the best record in the league. That just about gives you the Good Bad and the Ugly of it all in a Nut Cracker shell. I don't think anyone was cheating but 2 out of 3 knew what they were doing. :shock:

[Jerlins]

Have to agree with Maligned on this one. I tend to trust my preseason judgement and hope that things even out if the team gets off to a slow start. In 100 plus leagues, I've made less than five or six drops total, the only player over $1 was Manny from an 05 team after he was hitting about .150 tops. Drops can and have been done with limited success, but I've seen it work rarely except in the instance where a player was so much not suited for the park and the owner finally came to his senses and picked up someone better suited.

While I don't have hard facts, I'd say from what I've witnessed that the success rate in the improvement of one's team is less than 5% if the drops amount to $2-$3 or more.

[fredpaii]

I've played in four SOM leagues. All for the 2005 baseball season. I've made quite a few changes to my teams during the season.

I've won division titles in two of my leagues, gained a wild card berth in another, and went .500 and out of the playoffs in the last league.

I have always played with the 80 million cap.

Here's my total (ending) salary from each playoff team...

1. $63.520 (plus $00.170 unspent) Went 87-75 in 1st Place--two games from best record in league

2. $67.610 (plus $00.182 unspent) Went 95-67 in 1st Place--2nd best ecord in league

3. $59.180 (plus $00.086 unspent) Went 90-72 in 2nd Place and Wild Card--2nd best record in league

In my non-playoff team I finished at 81-81 and six behind the division winner. This team was my first try away from Petco. I love my Petco! Petco seems to afford it's owner a lot more room for offensive error, and as a result, player transactions, because of it's great potential to neutralize great hitters. Therefore, you can afford to pick up and platoon guys like Mark Teahen and Bubba Crosby and still win a division.

One final note. These salary numbers weren't the result of late season playoff preparations. No! I was fairly consistent from the start through the end of each season with my replacing. For instance, I might not have been happy with a certain SP's first couple of starts...he's gone! Give me someone who wants to play for me. haha I don't wait around.

[LA Bear]

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/playoffs/team_other.html?user_id=571&stats=sim

Sometimes it pays off...dropped LoDuca, Visquel and I forgot who in LF for McCann, Tyner and Jack Wilson and McCann turned the team around...and I learned my lesson to take care and not overspend for 7, 8 and 9 hitters! Sometimes you just make mistakes...

[IrishJoe]

the most common move I will make, with a good team that is, is to try to tweak my pitching to optimize my matchups against potential post-season opponants without killing myself in the regular season. I can't sat it has aloways worked, but I don't recall it ever costing me a post-season berth.

Joe