General Managers Keeper League

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

thanks for the guts props sandy. :D

let's hope its not "more guts than brains" in the long run!!! :shock:

[qksilver69]

Remember on Kemp:

a) He got a 3 range in RF this year as a rookie (and we know SOM is notoriously stingy on range ratings for rooks of all flavors) and has a TON of raw speed/athleticism, all he has to do is learn to use it better to have a realistic shot a 2. I saw a few Dodgers vs Giants games and I think he'll get there.

b) He managed an .835 OPS vs RH in half a season, well above league average for RH hitters, and batted over .300 against them. If he improves his plate discipline there he could be dangerous, and I don't believe for a second that the Dodgers are projecting him as a platoon guy, if they ever did.

c) The Dodgers are (right now at least) refusing to include him in the rumored Santana deals. That might say something about where they project him. He may end up in that deal but I hear they are trying to make it with Ethier, Kershaw & Broxton as the centerpieces along with 1 or 2 other prospects.

d) Jeter had 289 TBs in 714 PAs, putting him squarely in the class of these luminaries: K Greene (286/659), JJ Hardy (274/638), M Young (267/692), E Renteria (234/543).

And AK, I did realize later that Smokey's #4 pick is essentially a late 3 in terms of value. I don't think you have to worry about your brains on this one. You already showed them by not believing the hype & overvaluing Jeter! :P

[cirills]

[quote:7f29f2b05d]d) Jeter had 289 TBs in 714 PAs, putting him squarely in the class of these luminaries: K Greene (286/659), JJ Hardy (274/638), M Young (267/692), E Renteria (234/543).
[/quote:7f29f2b05d]

The fact that the latter two are "3" defensively flatout disqualifies them from comparison imo. And the other two are driven more by TB's than by OB's which has usually NOT been a good SOM prescription (a la Jose Valentin this year).

And despite whatever the Dodgers are "trying to do" right now, they still have Andruw Jones, Ethier, Kemp and Pierre all vying for 3 spots.

Here are 2 clips from the LA Daily News:

November 30th [quote:7f29f2b05d]Pierre could move to left field next year to allow the Dodgers to install a stronger defender in center field, the Los Angeles Daily News reports. [i:7f29f2b05d][b:7f29f2b05d]Matt Kemp could be one option, though his struggles defensively in right could be magnified by this move. [/b:7f29f2b05d][/i:7f29f2b05d]Another option could be a free agent such as Torii Hunter, though that would leave the club with four viable starting outfielders yet again (barring a trade).
[/quote:7f29f2b05d]

Interesting what the local beat writers think about Kemp's defense! :wink: Pretty spot on since a few days later they signed Andruw:[quote:7f29f2b05d]With Andruw Jones signing with the Dodgers, Pierre will move from center to left field, the LA Daily News reports.[/quote:7f29f2b05d]

So, barring a trade, for now it will be Ethier and Kemp in RF (for now).

[Cubit]

I've been watching and reading with enjoyment. I'll have to do a deal just to get the benefit of the analysis! :)

[qksilver69]

[quote:33929fbd16]The fact that the latter two are "3" defensively flatout disqualifies them from comparison imo. And the other two are driven more by TB's than by OB's which has usually NOT been a good SOM prescription (a la Jose Valentin this year). [/quote:33929fbd16]

So the assumption is that an OBP guy has a better chance to repeat his card in this format than a power guy? I beg to differ. Here's a little anecdotal evidence:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2007/team/team_other.html?user_id=8241

Jeter is 30 pts off his OBP and 60 pts off his SLG in one of the best hitter parks of the year.

And if the 3-range guys are not useful comparisons in your mind, please continue that line of thinking - it only makes my job easier! :lol: :P :wink:

[superflymacdaddyjuice]

my 2 cents.

On Jeter..... I agree with for the most part with QK's assessment of Jeter and the overall SS pool in general. However, I did get on of the best SS 2 range or not. He should be a viable card for me for at least 2 or 3 more years. I tend to place more emphasis on sandy's OBP arguments that i think QK does.

On Kemp.... Wonderful raw talent. But, I cant use him this year other than platooning in RF with Hawpe of which I have several others who can mimic his ability to do that. By DH ing Hanley, I am forced to play Upton in center as a 3. Hanley or Upton will be my CF of the future. so his chances to crack my lineup are slim even for the future. This coupled with Kemp's absurdly high BABIP for this year makes his best value for me to trade him now.

On Young... good pure hitter. Wonderful "tool" for the upcoming season. I could not keep him because I have several left handed hitting first baseman who can mimic his abilities as well and can also field a little ( sort of....) I also have a couple of wonderful hitters that have stone gloves. so my options at DH are not convenient.


The deal... I did essentially give up only spare parts for Jeter. But the term "spare" is relative to my situation. I mean what is the worst that can happen for AK? He gets two starting bats for this year and a pick. Also Kemp can exceed the upside I forecast for him, and furthermore could play more than just a platoon role for AK's team this year. ( there by giving him three bats) And AK does not really have any good young OF'ers at all. This coupled with his depth at the SS position makes the deal easy for him to do as well especially when he gets a draft pick too.

Ultimately, the deal boils down to this...

for AK, how much longer can Jeter outperform betancourt and by how much? What kind of value can you place on this difference? does that value equal kemp and a pick? ( dont forget young's bat for at least this year.) I don't think it took balls for him to make this move at all just shrewdness. ( sell high) The only thing that worked against AK was that the # of clubs interested in negotiating where not high enough to drive up Jeter's value to above fair market which i feel as though i would have been forced to pay, for me this was lucky..

for me, what kind of idiot takes ramirez and upton early in a keeper strato league and has to play a 4 @ ss and a 3 in center? (the year i am targetting to be most competetive mind you) I HAD to pay for an SS and had to do it now. It was simply a confluence of events entailing two teams with needs and surpluses that aligned to make an equitable deal.... no?

[Ninersphan]

Wow, this trade has really sparked debate, In general I think a good move for both of you, which makes it the best kind of trade. :D

Sandy's just jealous he couldn't get Jeter :wink: :lol:

now if any of you would like to trade suprlus relief pitchers I'm all ears :D

[superflymacdaddyjuice]

Niners,

who you got in left?

I can part with a reliever.

[cirills]

[quote:5e514fb9f2] I mean what is the worst that can happen for AK? He gets two starting bats for this year [/quote:5e514fb9f2]

But, he doesn't -- he gets one complete batter -- and one that can DH only vs. RH's.

[quote:5e514fb9f2]Here's a little anecdotal evidence:[/quote:5e514fb9f2]

Just because your "change of pace" first pick in the NLD backfired on you doesn't mean Jeter is a bum QK. :wink:

[quote:5e514fb9f2]And if the 3-range guys are not useful comparisons in your mind, please continue that line of thinking - it only makes my job easier![/quote:5e514fb9f2]

When it comes to SS's, I totally believe it does and will continue that line of thinking. Especially when the 3's had the least amount of total offense.

And, speaking of anectodal evidence, I have PLENTY on Valentin being a bust this year, with a card vs. RH's that had more OB and TB than Greene's vs. LH's this coming year (don't even look at his RH side). Hardy is a tad beter that way but NOT much.

Sorry, but I still think that this trade is one that will take a while to prove itself out.

[cirills]

[quote:7fca5cd23b]Sandy's just jealous he couldn't get Jeter [/quote:7fca5cd23b]

Nah. I am happy with Tulo. He's worse vs. RH's but he's young, plays in CO and might become a "1" next season. :D