Beltran v. Wells

[bravefalcon7]

Here is my team that I just received from Autodraft:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2005/team/team_other.html?user_id=50822

I need a 1B, LF & DH and need to upgrade my bullpen. My question is who is a better fit for building my team Beltran or Wells? I play at Petco, but there are 2 Wrigleys and a Shea in my division. So, I'm leaning towards Beltran even though it would mean less money to use elsewhere. Any thoughts?

[Coffeeholic]

Bravefalcon... gotta go with none of the above. :wink:

I think it may be a good idea to try the trade route, as neither Belran or Wells is particularly well suited to Petco. For that matter, neither is ARod.

These guys will perform decently for you in a "homer happy" park like Coors, Ameriquest, etc, but in Petco, you will most likely be very disappointed by their performances.

These two are too valuable to just drop however, so I'd work the trade route to see if you can get some players who will do well in the pitcher friendly confines of Petco.

Looking at a couple of teams in your league, the Cinderella's might be a team to work with.... perhaps offer up Beltran and Drese (another guy who is not suited to your park) for Bradley and Garcia? He's playing in Montreal, so it might interest him.

The Open Houses (playing in Yankee) might be another team you could work with. Maybe you could offer up Beltran, Arod and Drese to get Damon and Santana? That'd be real nice for you!

[1crazycanuk]

I'd use Beltran myself (have). Whether he can hit well for Petco or not, he's got the defence and you do play half your games on the road. It is clear to me now that pretty much ANYONE will underperform for Petco but you still gotta have players.

[bravefalcon7]

Thanks for the response Coffee. I guess I just thought it was important to have a 1 rated defender in CF with a strong arm. I also thought I read that A-Rod was good in PETCO & Shea for his defense and pure HR#s. Without Beltran and A-Rod, I will have no power threat in my lineup. One other question... do you see any problem with LoDuca 4(+1) at PETCO?

[jodynadu]

agree with Coffeholic (should be a given by this time)

another point about Beltran is he is a switch-hitter. This would mean he would bat righty against the Shea's LH SP's and lefty against Wrigley's RH SP.

Another option would be picking up SF Leftfielder in Waivers (at least I didn't see him on any other team) what is you waiver pick?

[bravefalcon7]

6th pick. He'll probably be gone.

[The Biomechanical Man]

I would try to move Beltran in pre-waivers to free up cash, and then list Bonds as your #1 waiver claim for dropping A-Rod. Bonds is expensive, but his natural HR's and OBP make him a recipe for success in Petco.

I see you already dropped two players, so you can't just drop Beltran - you'll have to move him by pre-waiver trade. Good luck. You might want to make an announcement in your league that Beltran is available for a cheaper hitter. If Bonds is gone by the time it gets to your pick, it will not cost you a pick and you will be given your #2 waiver claim (assuming [i:08726faf08]he's[/i:08726faf08] available and you are still within budget). If you don't lose A-Rod in your waiver claim for Bonds, keep A-Rod.

The defense of A-Rod and Wells will help you in Petco, and I think you need at least 1 or 2 homerun sluggers (Bonds or A-Rod) on your team.

[Coffeeholic]

Let's put it this way:

Beltran has 16 BP HR's on his card and ARod 14 BP HR's on his card (vs. both LH & RHP).

All hitters have 5 BP Singles on their cards.

Playing in Petco will cost these two hitters between 10 -12 HR's during the course of the season and ARod 16-18 hits per (HR's + Singles), Beltran probably about the same as he loses more BP HR's, but will gain a few BP Singles when he bats lefty

So, for $9.16 mil, Beltran immediately drops from a player who hit .267/.367/38 (Avg/OBP/HR's) to a player who hits about .240/.335/26
and ARod for $8.50 drops from .286/.375/36 to .250/.340/25.

By contrast, Kotsay (3 BP HR's) will lose approx 1-2 HR's and 3-4 singles. So for $5.08 you have a player who will drop from .314/.370/15 only to .304/.360/14. Rollins, as another example, has only 2 BP HR's so will lose about the same amount of HR's and singles as Kotsay. He (at $5.95 mil) drops from .289/.348/14 to .279/.338/12.

Now these calculations were done quickly, but should be pretty close.

Based on these numbers, I like the production I get from Kotsay and Rollins for $11 mil compared to the production I get from Beltran and ARod at $17.50+, esp when you factor in that in doubles, fielding, speed,etc. they are very close, if not better.

[bravefalcon7]

Great analysis Coffee, thanks. Any thoughts on LoDuca at C. I've read elsewhere that Jamie Burke is good to have, but he is an e13.

[1crazycanuk]

That makes sense Coffee...but that is because you know more about all this. I didn't have a clue about any of that so it didn't seem so bad to use Beltran in Petco. Besides, almost everybody in the league would have decreased numbers in Petco. But I see what you're saying...just don't know how to do all that math for myself. lol