Beltran v. Wells

[Coffeeholic]

Oops... my math was a little off before.

I am working with the assumption that player's BP HR's are based upon their performances in their "home" ballpark. ARod in Yankee Stadium (BP HR 1-10) for example. But in my calculations I was using BP HR 1-20 as a base, and for ARod this should have been 1-10. So instead of losing 10-12 HR's, he actually only loses 5-6 in Petco.

Still, as a general rule however, the greater the number of BP HR's on a player's card, the greater the decrease in production in a park like Petco, and conversley, the greater the increase in production in a park like Coors.

The opposite is true for pitcher's... you can get away with pitcher's with BP HR's on their cards in Petco, as these just turn into long outs. Drese's card has higher WHIP and no BP HR's, great for hitter friendly parks, but decreasing in effeciency in Petco.

I've not used LaDuca before Bravefalcon, but have used Burke a number of times and he has always been money in the bank! IRod, Kendall, Estrada and Burke would be my 1st choices in Petco, depending on your needs and budget constraints.

[Coffeeholic]

A quick (and reasonably accurate) way for you to do the math for a player's production in his home park is this:

There are 108 chances per side on each player's card

For simplicity's sake, I base a player's performance on 648 plate appearances (6x108) for an entire season (granted, a little low probably, but really easy to do quick estimates).

Half his PA's will be at home (648/2 = 324), half of which will be "rolled" on his card (324/2 = 162). This is the same as taking 108 and multiplying by 1.5 (162).

So if a player has 8 BP HR's on his card, this should equate to roughly 12 times during the season when this will effect his performance at home (8 x 1.5).

For perfromance vs. RHP and LHP, I again use the quick formula of 66%/33% (or 2:1) vs each respectively.

If you want the really easy method, figure a player who played his home games in a hitter friendly park (Burnitz for example) will lose the greatest amount of production when playing in pitcher friendly parks. Conversley, a player who played his home game in a pitcher friendly park (Bonds) will gain the greatest amount of production when playing in a hitter friendly park. So, Burnitz will stink in Petco, Bonds will rock in Coors!

[bravefalcon7]

Let me change the scenario for you. I dropped Beltran for Hafner. Would you still rather have Bonds and a cheap light hitting SS (Sanchez) over Hafner and A-Rod?

[JdEarly]

[quote:22470572c1="Coffeeholic"]A quick (and reasonably accurate) way for you to do the math for a player's production in his home park is this:

For simplicity's sake, I base a player's performance on 648 plate appearances (6x108) for an entire season (granted, a little low probably, but really easy to do quick estimates). [/quote:22470572c1]

This is going to make me sound like a moron, probably... but why 6x108? I would have thought that 4 plate appearaces per game, multiplied by 162 games would have given you your 648. Is there a reason behind the 6x108? I just like to know why things are the way they are, it helps me remember them better.

((Nevermind, I'm tired. I re-read it, and I get it now. Sorry I'm a dumbass.))