by stevep107 » Sat Mar 15, 2008 7:49 pm
OK, guys, it's been really quiet in here lately so here are my predictions.
I've decided not to do an analysis of relievers. Part of the reason is that I have run out of time but also because its hard to judge how many innings each RP will do and therefore its difficult to know how well each team's bullpen will perform.
I think one of the most important stats of past performance is obviously win percentage. Here are each manager's 2007 win % and all time win %:
Schubert .528 .533
Cristano .562 .556
DT .540 .534
hendrix .543 .529
Terry101 .522 .524
stevep .528 .541
Roscodog .533 .527
fjzahn .508 .511
uncleny .497 .506
azhawg .513 .512
akindian .519 .522
keyzick .517 .498
Top 3 2007: Cristano, Hendrix & DT
Top 3 all time: Cristano, stevep, & DT
The guys that scare me the most in strato are the ones who have a higher win percentage than I - guys like Cristano. Although I have to say, I can't ever remember going head to head with Cristano in any previous league. I realise that win % is highly dependant on how many teams you've played and the standard of the competition. But it is the best indicator we have.
One thing is for sure - these predictions will be wrong. Criticise me if you like or better still, make your own predictions. It will make for interesting reading for everyone.
I'll start with the east.
Basking Ridge - poor SPs, poor RPs, all star infield, excellent outfield, ordinary C, good DH. Can a team built primarily on offence win? Probably not in this league.
Cristano - superb SPs, poor RPs, v. good C, good DH, good IF, good OF. Will anyone in this division be able to beat the legendary Cristano? Probably not in my opinion.
Dumbledorf - below avg SPs, good RPs, good C, excellent IF, average OF. DT has a great win percentage in 07 and overall but I don't think his team here is going to upset Cristano.
Almeda - average SPs, above average RPs, avg C, above avg IF, avg OF. Hendrix has done very well in 07 but I think he is going to struggle to get past the others in this division which I think is the toughest of the three.
Prediction:
1 - Cristano
2 - Dumbledorf
3 - Almeda
4 - Basking Ridge
Central
Brooklyn - below avg SPs, v. good RPs, poor C, awesome DH, serious power in the IF, avg OF. This team is going to hit a lot of HR but will that be enough? I don't think so.
Best Damn - excellent SPs, great closer but the rest of the bullpen is crap, avg C, good IF, great CF but the other two OFs are ordinary, DH OK. Looks like an interesting team. The bullpen will disappoint but the strong SPs will keep this team competitive.
Santa Fe - better than avg SPs, great closer, rest of bullpen is avg, avg C, good IF, poor CF but excellent LF and RF, excellent DH vs R, avg DH vs L. Terry has put together a strong team and will do well (but hopefully not too well from my perspective).
Deja Vu - v. good SPs, avg RPs, all star C, above avg IF, ordinary CF, all star LF and RF, good DHs. Well, I hope I have assembled a winning team here but I guess time will tell.
Prediction:
1 - Deja Vu
2 - Best Damn (tough call here)
3 - Santa Fe
4 - Brooklyn
West
I am the Walrus - wins the competition for the most imaginative team name but that's all. Poor SPs, avg RPs, excellent C, excellent IF, poor OF (with honourable mention for Suzuki). Overall, a poor pitching staff and a below average offence.
Hawgwild - v. good SPs, great closer, rest of bullpen is ordinary, good C, all-star IF (except 3B), all star CF, LF & RF are crap. Can a team built around Puhols and Beltran win? Probably not, but it will get close.
SS Minnow - avg SPs, ordinary RPs, poor C, all star DH, avg IF, avg OF. Hafner, Berkman and Scott are going to hit a TON of HRs. Will it be enough to make it to the playoffs in this, the weakest division? Yes.
Tour de Farce - a hint of sarcasm in this team name. good SPs, poor RPs, avg C, good IF except for SS, all star OF, below avg DH. Some quality players on this team but I don't think it will be enough to get them to the post-season.
Prediction:
1 - SS Minnow
2 - Hawgwild
3 - Tour de Farce
4 - Walrus
I think the wildcard might come from the East. So, I think it will be Cristano, DT, myself, and keyzick in the playoffs.