BS Champions League- draft started, James Schubert is up

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

a one season championship is going to come down to HAL's good luvin.

when i've run simulated seasons in the past i've had variations in the number of wins by as much as 15.

[keyzick]

I still like Stevee's predictions best...he had me winning my division. :)

I keep dropping down the predicted finish order the more people that list them!! :roll:

[keyzick]

[quote:0a5f2a95d9="keyzick"]Glad we finally get to start tonight. As far as predictions, it almost feels like one of those seasons where 10 games will be the spread between best and worst overall records.

I think it will come down to whoever can perform best on the road. Everyone's teams as built look solid for there own ballpark, so performance on the road should be key. [/quote:0a5f2a95d9]

Actually, I see Cristano's predictions support my 10-game-spread prediction...for what that's worth.

[cristano11]

i think it will come down to pure luck... if we replayed this league 10 times, then a lot more skill... one run, with 10 games separating best and worst = pure luck...

[keyzick]

I agree to some extent, and have seen the multiple arguments back and forth on multiple threads, BUT in the spirit of March Madness:

What makes the NCAA tournament so exciting, is that the best team isn't guaranteed to walk all over the competition, and is always vulnerable to hitting a red hot team while they themselves may be off. So "one and done" creates a situation where the better team CAN get knocked out with one bad night. Every year, you hear "well, if Team X played Team Y 10 times, Team X would win 9 out of 10"...well, that one time could be the National Title.

The tie in to the Tour being that we play 162 games, the 3 division winners and remaining "best" team advance to a best out of 5, then a best out of 7 post-season elimination series. I understand what you're saying, but at least the longevity of the season and number of games to qualify as the winner/loser of a post season series helps to offset the luck factor (remember, I said "helps" to offset, not "completely" offsets).





B

[keyzick]

Kinda quiet 'round the league! Some great races here in the early stages...West isn't looking as weak as predicted :wink: , but so close from top to bottom, the standings can flip flop overnight.

I think people (myself included) are starting to get itchy trigger fingers on making possible moves, time will tell.... :)

[FRANKZAHN]

I am willing to trade Howard or Ortiz for some excellent starting pitching.

[stevep107]

Hi guys,

Yes, it has been quiet in here. I was going to wait until after game 54 when 1/3rd of the season was complete before making any comments.

Obviously, I am disappointed that my team has performed so poorly. At first I thought I was just being unlucky, but as time goes on, I am beginning to think that I am just outclassed in this league. It is a credit to all of the other managers here.

I'm not raising the white flag just yet, but being 9 games under .500 at this point in the season, things are not looking good.

I'm not desperately unhappy with my pitching staff, although my #1 and #2 starters have underperformed badly to date. Things can only improve here.

It is my hitters who have been very disappointing - in particular, Swisher, Abreu and Patterson have underperformed as has Wright in recent times. Crawford has outperformed but it hasn't made up for the underperformance of the rest of the team.

I think my team will perform better the rest of the way but at this stage, I think it is very unlikely that I will make the playoffs. We'll see. Getting back to .500 is goal #1. We might never get there.

As for my predictions made previously, well, I knew that they would be wrong but I always like to make predictions anyway.

The West division has been surprisingly strong.

I knew that Terry and Cristano would do well. It's surprising that DT isn't doing better, but a 12 game losing streak will do that to you. :)

Hawgwild has been the standout surprise, in my opinion.

Cheers,
Steve

[uncle ny]

[quote:14433c4b60="stevep107"]...I've done an analysis of each team's starting pitching and I'd like to share it with all of you.

The following is the order of the strength of SPs with 1 being the best team and 12 being the worst. Next to each team, I've also put the average amount spent per SP:

1. Cristano 4.86
2. Best Damn 5.32
3. Deja Vu 3.66
4. Hawgwild 4.62
5. Santa Fe 4.57
6. Almeda 4.57
7. SS Minnow 4.0
8. Tour de F 3.89
9. Brooklyn 3.95
10. Dumbledorf 3.02
11. Basking Ridge 3.02
12. Walrus 3.33

As you can see, according to my analysis, Cristano has the best SPs but he has also spent a lot. Not surprisingly, the teams with the worst SPs are also the ones who have spent the least....

Regards,
Steve P[/quote:14433c4b60]

:lol:

[stevep107]

Uncle,

Actually, that analysis doesn't look too bad right now. Before the season started, I thought that Cristano had the best SPs and he is currently third in team ERA. I thought Best Damn had the second best SPs and he is first overall in team ERA. I predicted that I had the third best SPs and I am fifth overall in team ERA. Certainly not a bad prediction. Note that my analysis did not take into account the team's home ballpark.

I am guessing that you are referring to my prediction that you would have the worst SPs and yet you currently have the second best team ERA.

Firstly, subsequent to my initial analysis, you made some changes to your SPs, getting rid of Nolasco and Lester and acquiring Hernandez. Hernandez is terrible, but he is better than those other two jokers. This move alone improved your SPs to 10th place from 12th.

Secondly, the analysis didn't include RPs. You've got a couple of high priced relievers which has helped your team ERA. Their ERAs are also unsustainably low at the moment. This will change.

Thirdly, Johnson, Martinez and Hill have been lucky. They currently have ERAs of 2.75, 2.43 and 2.87. Part of the reason for that is because you are in Kauffman but I would be amazed if any of these guys had ERAs below 3.0 at the end of the season. I guess we'll see.

Being firmly in last place, I'm not really in a position to be judging who has the best team, etc. :)

In retrospect, I think my team has been unlucky to date and will not end up in last place. Having said that, it will take a miracle for me to make the playoffs.

I'm hoping that strato is similar to golf...once you stop caring about the game, it begins to improve... :)

Regards,
Steve