by bomp helium » Tue Jan 17, 2006 5:29 am
Good Evening Gentlemen:
Larkin's a four...but he's an e6 (or e8, somewhere in there)...and if my shortstop goes through a season and makes 6 errors (or 8), I don't have a problem with that...especially if he hits .290 with pop...sure he'll cost me some runs with his range, but will he produce more runs with his bat than he surrenders with his glove?...I suggest that he may...but the real intriguing number is 1.4 million...
the problem with the secret formula theory is that once the secret formula is announced then it isn't a secret anymore and then everyone else tries it and the next thing you know you get three of your 25 draft picks and even the inventor of the secret theory can't get it to work and soon he is roundly discredited and turns to drink while the crowd quickly moves on to the next secret theory...
Think about it this way...this may be bizarre but it also may be true...(that happens a lot in life)...baseball is two things: scoring runs and preventing runs from being scored. These may be called OFFENSE and DEFENSE. Each is 50% of the equation (27 outs each).
OFFENSE is scoring runs, which is a blend of OBP, power, speed, finesse and clutch hitting. These factors comprise 50% of the game. The idea is, you have 27 outs in which to score runs. Each of the above factors contribute to your success. I might break them down this way: OBP 30%; power 20%, speed 20%, clutch hitting 20%, finesse 10%.
DEFENSE is preventing runs, which is a blend of pitching, fielding and range. These factors comprise the other 50% of the game. You need to minimize the runs scored before you get 27 outs. Each factor is important. I might break them down as follows: Pitching 70% (I put my faith in the guy holding the ball); fielding 15% (it is important, psychologically as much as anything, to have consistent and professional play from your fielders); range 15% (it is a nice bonus to have athletic players -- especially outfielders -- who can run down balls and take away baserunners).
So there's my theory, in a slightly intoxicated nutshell. 50% offense, 50% defense. Offense = OBP 30%; power 20% speed 20% finesse 10% clutch hitting 20%. Defense = pitching 70%; fielding 15%; range 15%.
Therefore, a players "range" or "e-rating" are relatively minor considerations, under this hastily conceived model. It is more important that he contribute to the run-making machine. The "range" factor is just 15% of Defense, which equals 15% of 50%, or 7.5% of the whole equation. Since there are nine players, a shortstop's combined fielding and range is, generously, oh, 1/5 of 7.5% x 2, or a mere 3% of the equation of baseball...while that same shortstop's OFFENSE is 1/9 of 50%, or 4.5% of the equation...
So Barry Larkin's hitting might just be more important than his fielding (4.5% to 3%)...if my numbers are an accurate reflection (haha)...
and that's the [i:16ee2dd07a]shortstop[/i:16ee2dd07a], who I am crediting with 1/5 of the plays made...the ratio may be even more skewed towards offense with the corner players...
but the number I really like is the 1.40...getting Larkin and Lugo (1.77) up the middle may have horrified the purists, but it freed up a lotta cash towards J.D Drew (.436), to add to Bonds (.609), Snow (.429), Walker (.424) and Quinlan (.401)...everyone else in the run machine is in the mid-to high .300s (including Larkin and Lugo, who make an outsanding bottom of the order as we turn the corner into .429, .436, .609, .424, and .401...
I'm sure the team era will be a nightmare, but what I'm looking for are [i:16ee2dd07a]wins[/i:16ee2dd07a]...plus it's a fun way to play the game...
Of course I've just not only given away my secrets, such as they are, which means I won't be getting 23 out of 25 on draft day anymore, but I've also just jinxed myself, which means The Lenticular Cloud People will finish 26-136, with up to 11 players injured at a time, three of them permanently, including Rob Quinlin, who, sadly, was run over by a drunken Brian Roberts in a stolen taxi cab and KILLED on an early-season road trip...
can Tyler Walker play 3B?...
cheers,
helium
please -- don't take the numbers seriously...they're just tossed out there to illustrate a point...