What indicators do you look for to tell if your team is OK?

[teepack]

My latest 2005 team just started this week. Nine games into the season I'm 6-3 and feeling pretty good about my team. But I was wondering, are there any stats or indicators you guys look at to determine if your team is really good or just on a hot streak? I know a lot of people swear by run differential, but are there other things like that? ERA or WHIP? Slugging percentage? Batting average vs. lefties or righties? Things like that? Just wondering.

[Play By The Rules]

Balance. Sometimes even though you're unbalanced in favor of RHP it's still worth it if other teams aren't adjusting or don't have a lot of lefties.

If I'm significantly better vs. LHP unless I'm seeing a ton of them (in a Shea scenario) I'm most likely making tweaks.

[JohnnyBlazers]

Run differential is a good indicator, but I would think that you would have to play a lot more than nine games, against different opponents and stadiums to get a good read on your team. You also have to look at the players on your team. I just started a Wrigley team thats 7-5 so far. The team has an OBP of .296 & a .232 batting avg. and I have Manny, Beltre, Jeter, Damon & Delgado so I can't really pay attention to those stats because over time those numbers will definitely go up. My pitching is 2nd in the league however but Livan Hernandez & Co. are not going to lead the league in pitching when all is said & done (not with Livan as an Ace) If you go the the pythagorean theorem (found in diamonddope.com) you will find that it is an amazing indicator for a w-l record based on run differential, however, you need more than 9 games a cross-sample IMO.

[bigmahon]

Run differential. :)

[visick]

run differential

[doug_tucker10]

wins :lol:

[qksilver69]

That early in a season, very hard to take away any meaningful indicators. I usually don't pay much attention until about 40 gms in. At that point I look at run differential, especially runs scored per game, because I usually look at lineups going into the season and do some basic productivity indicators. I know whether I have a lineup that should be scoring 5 rpg, 5.5 rpg, or 6 rpg. Harder to say on pitching because of how HAL runs your pen, what kind of offenses you're facing, etc. I find in SOM offense is much easier to predict.

And, as you'd expect from a Beane disciple, I look at team OPS. Anything approaching .800 is solid, given that I tend towards hitting.

[Valen]

I usually do an over/under count on my roster. How many are performing under what is expected and should improve and how many are overperforming indicating I am getting all I can hope for.
Balance of underperformers and losing : patience
Balance of underperformers and winning: very happy, can only get better
Balance of overperformers and losing: worry, not likely to improve
Balance of overperformers and winning: Keep an eye on it

And of course over and underperformers have to be reflective of ballpark.

[durantjerry]

One thing I look at early is whether my team is over or under achieving statistically. If I am 6-3 and my offense and/or pitching is underachieving I am happier than if they were doing well, as I know it will get better. I want a good record and to not really be clicking on all cylinders yet, giving my squad room for improvement.