Willits severely underpriced?

[fred_1_15301]

Am I missing something here? The guy has pretty good OBP against both lefties and righties, respectable fielding in all OF positions and great speed. He seems like the ideal leadoff hitter in the 2007 set. His only downside is his injury risk. How is he only priced at 1.46?

[KEVINEHLE]

For me, here are his numbers so far in one of my leagues:

88 ABs....... .188 BA, .274 OBP, and .212 SLUG

Tell me again how he is grossly overpriced!! :cry:

Kev

[FRANKMANSUETO]

Kev, numbers like that are normal for you. Don't you have Holliday batting under .240 in a league. And to think my teams are Where Good Players Go To Die. Are you my son? :? :shock:

[fred_1_15301]

[quote:f2ad85f9da="ehlekev"]For me, here are his numbers so far in one of my leagues:

88 ABs....... .188 BA, .274 OBP, and .212 SLUG

Tell me again how he is grossly overpriced!! :cry:

Kev[/quote:f2ad85f9da]

Sorry about your luck...... :D . Seriously though....based on his card, he should be close to .400 OBP right?

[KEVINEHLE]

I took Willits with the thinking he would be at least a cheap .350OBP player at a minimum, but his value may reflect his card being not as productive as his real numbers that year.

Frank...... after spending the first half of the season below .220, Holliday is now batting a little over .240 in that league, which is the same league that Willits is batting so pathetically. :cry: :cry: Sadly, we're in a pretty good hitter's park, which makes it worse! Perhaps Willits and Holliday are getting the evil dice rolls from the Strato gods......who always try to smite me at every turn!! I think this is in part that I'm in every Frank league. I'm guilty by association! :evil: :evil:

Kev

[Palmtana]

Here are his numbers in a league I am in, with a larger sample size (307 AB's):

Avg. - .319
OBP - .410
SLG - .368

I think he is a great value. 46 OB against both sides. Speed. I just got him on a team and will lead him off with Lofton behind him vs. RHP on a smallball team. His numbers will improve for you. But that's what I keep saying about Tike Redman's performance on one of my teams. :cry:

[Rant]

Good speed, good ob, decent hits versus lefties. He's a nice leadoff option. Decent in the field. His lack of power, poor hits versus righties and 3 inj rating probably brought down his value, but compared to an OB guy in the same price range (Chris Snelling - $1.05M) who has less speed, less hits and power, and worse fielding ... oh and a 6 inj rating Willits a steal.

[childsmwc]

The perceived value in Willits is that the entire salary that you are paying for is OBP and speed. He has no power and is an average fielder, so basically his entire price tag is maximized for lead off hitter skills. Further he is a bit of an injury risk which reduces his price.

Now I used the term percieved because this arguement basically assumes that he is never relied on for the other half of the runs created equation, which is moving runners on base (the first being getting on base). True your 7 through 9 hitthers aren't studs, but they are still going to be on base at probably a .320 to .330 clip, so in those situations Willits is adding no additional value in moving those runners along, thus his price stays where it is.

Whats interesting is that basically the lineup maximization arguement that is being used for Willits value, is the same arguement that is basically used to suggest a player like Todd Helton is overpriced. Helton has decent OBP but not the speed you want in a lead off hitter, and he has decent Slg but not the pure power you want in your 3 through 5 hitters, but the combination of both gives him a very high price tag, yet he doesn't fit neatly into the line up because it is perceived that you are paying for say walks in an RBI roll that you would prefer not to (ie. I can buy R. Howard, or P. Fielder for less to drive in runs).

Based on my experience over the years playing with some very nontraditional lineups, I think lineup maximization is way overrated and thus I think you are getting what you pay for in Willits a weak hitting average defender with an injury risk, that should get on base at about a .380 clip and steal a few bases.

Bbrool