Hitter's "balance"

[tersignf]

[quote:b9b3f11a75]tersignf
All-Star
Posts: 146
23 Dec 2005 15:51

funny...I think you're weaker vs righties! Especially since you have no real LHB on RHP boppers. Tough righties will be tough for you to beat at home which is bad.

[b:b9b3f11a75]Remember that the balance ratings are a first guess, but just like in estimating if an asteroid's orbit will intersect with Earth...it's a first guess only.

As you move on with the game, the best way to see this is to use the CDROM version of the game to sim your team or to use the lineup analysis features (I have a Mac so I'm out of luck--but it's well worth it if you have a WIN machine).

In the absence of that, here's a general rule or two on balance:
1. It is non-linear in its application...that is is becomes significantly less important as salary goes up. e.g., Randy Johnsons's 3L really doesn't matter--he's better against righties than most other pitcher's too. It's only relative to that player's individual performance. Same with Vlad Guerrero etc. But with a Davanon or a Merloni it makes a difference.

2. Balance rating should not be considered gospel on player capability vs that side. Depends on your park, N or W power, usage patterns in your lineup etc. Look at Mark Loretta...shows as a lefty slant--maybe so with all those OBs and TBs--but he has more individual XBHs vs righties with N power, so he may have a higher slugging % vs righties etc. Then there's folks like Surhoff and Klesko--shaded to LHP but W power--they need to be used accordingly depending on park etc.

3. Although I have no proof except an anecdotal claim, RHBs who are shaded toward RHPs (ie Jack Wilson, Frank Thomas) don't always do as well against their strong as you might expect. It may be because there are lots of tough RHPs who handle RHBs, so that the combined chance of getting a hit is less than a LHB who kills RHP. It depends on park and matchups very much, but don't expect Aramis Ramirez to hit righties as well as a comparable LHB such as Carlos Delgado (depends on park of course but all things equal).

4. Almost forgot--remember you'll face righties 2 out of every 3 plate appearances...it's OK to be slightly weaker vs lefties in most cases (park, matchups etc notwithstanding).

It's all about crafting a roster for value--getting the most from the money you spend--meaning using player's cards in the most favorable situations a majority of the time...not paying for good D out of your DH, not paying for BPHRs if you play in Petco, etc
[/b:b9b3f11a75]
Absolutely agree on Freel--everyday player that allows you to spend elsewhere. He's a value for his OB. Most other high OB options (who have it both ways) are more money (Mora, loretta, suzuki, posada, Kendall, etc)

Cheers GL and have fun
[/quote:b9b3f11a75]

[tersignf]

As for Sheffield, it shouldn't be a surprise that he's not an appropriate #4 or 5 hitter against righties unless you're in a park that gives him at least 4 BPHRs or so. Why? Count up his nat hits and XBHs against righties and then compare with even people like Randy Winn, Jorge Piedra, Carl Crawford, the list goes on. I generally consider my clean up guy to have a minimum of 12 XBHs. Hence the reason I only use Sheffield in that way against righties in a HR hitter's park.

Against lefties he has enough nat hits such that he'll be fine.

Remember--total bases are a good indicator but I'd argue they're a better indicator for a number 2 or 3 hitter...XBHs are better for your power/cleanup guys. Again depends on park and the rest of your lineup.
***DISCLAIMER--THIS IS MY OPINION!!!!! *** :)

You can't make static rules on winning strategies--but you can make winning strategies. i.e., can't have a rule that Sheffield is "always good or always bad". But you can have a strategy that says use a guy as a power hitter if he has XX XBHs at home and XX on the road...the list goes on and on...then you have to consider how much you're paying for those XBHs... :wink:

[bleacher_creature]

In addition to the cards, it's all about the math. As in OB/TB chances. Rolen is much better than A-Rod vs RHPs for example.

This leads to another question I've been wondering about:

Can you calculate a hitters specific OB chance by adding his, plus pitcher's OB, divided by 216? Example:

Hitter OB = 44
Pitcher OB=22

Total chance is 66/216; [b:4eac956db8]PLUS[/b:4eac956db8] BP singles chances??

Is this right???

Q2: Can you get sort of a "Strat OPS" by adding OB + TB from the rating book as some kind of measurement of offensive strength for a gitter from a particular side? This would work for pitchers too, no?

[1crazycanuk]

Well tersignf...sorry if I asked it before and disagreed with you. However, I don't recall disagreeing with you over balance ratings nor do I recall even asking the question. I'm basically kind of lost as to what your point is. Sorry.

[tersignf]

Durant Jerry--I agree with you there...
...and who am I to argue anyway!!
:D

[1crazycanuk]

[quote:13157c8266="tersignf"]As for Sheffield, it shouldn't be a surprise that he's not an appropriate #4 or 5 hitter against righties unless you're in a park that gives him at least 4 BPHRs or so. Why? Count up his nat hits and XBHs against righties and then compare with even people like Randy Winn, Jorge Piedra, Carl Crawford, the list goes on. I generally consider my clean up guy to have a minimum of 12 XBHs. Hence the reason I only use Sheffield in that way against righties in a HR hitter's park.

Against lefties he has enough nat hits such that he'll be fine.

Remember--total bases are a good indicator but I'd argue they're a better indicator for a number 2 or 3 hitter...XBHs are better for your power/cleanup guys. Again depends on park and the rest of your lineup.
***DISCLAIMER--THIS IS MY OPINION!!!!! *** :)

You can't make static rules on winning strategies--but you can make winning strategies. i.e., can't have a rule that Sheffield is "always good or always bad". But you can have a strategy that says use a guy as a power hitter if he has XX XBHs at home and XX on the road...the list goes on and on...then you have to consider how much you're paying for those XBHs... :wink:[/quote:13157c8266]

This, I appreciate. Though there's no need for the disclaimer. :wink:

[1crazycanuk]

Bleachercreature, I don't know. Sounds like an interesting theory though. I was never good at math so I really don't know.

As for a 3 at 2B...isn't it better than a 4 in LF? I could play Manny in the field and DH Loretta and get rid of Ford..or drop Ordonez and Higginson and put Ford in RF.

[tersignf]

No offense intended at all--email/blog doesn't always come across right.
My overall point is everyone is trying to help and there's no "communal" intent to obfuscate things for you.

Really want you to have fun and not be frustrated--after all the more people in these leagues who are active contributors, the more fun it is.

My apologies if I came off wrongly

[1crazycanuk]

tersignf, no problem then. I believe you. This game is fun but I always drive myself nuts in pre-season...changing my team over and over. take care.

[tersignf]

There's an estimated formula for expectation of errors plus hits by fielding rating, based on expected number of defensive chances. I have to try and dig that up unless someone has a link. Basically that would be the comparison to make.

My gut instinct would be play a 2 at 2b with the 4e9 in LF versus a 3 at 2b with a 2e5 in LF.

But I'd like to locate that link with the numbers.

Basically Manny may only impact you a handful of times--but they may be big XB errors...whereas Loretta will cause some more singles. If you have Izturis or Everett at SS and a 1 in CF though, then I'd prob keep Loretta at 2B and take a chance. Confusing enough?
:)