Ultimate Strat League Chat

Postby joethejet » Sat May 03, 2008 6:53 pm

Pitching plus Defense. These are the combination of both so if you think you have great pitching, but you're not at the top here, it's probably because your D is bad (see below)

[code:1:589625ca13]
Team PF P+F Rtg Run Dif
PalHose 5319 1 2 -1 W
RoadRun 5487 2 1 1 E
Monster 5524 3 5 -2 W
BufWing 5525 3 4 -1 E
25Bucks 5743 5 4 1 C
FCoZips 5764 5 5 0 C
HoDaddy 5785 6 4 2 W
Osaints 5855 7 11 -4 C
Tornado 6049 9 9 0 W
HelYeah 6105 10 2 8 E
WHBoSox 6131 11 9 2 E
ChMusic 6418 12 12 0 C
[/code:1:589625ca13]

As mentioned earlier, the Saints are underperforming (especially in *that* division) and the Yeahs are way over, but that could be because of all of their moves. In other words, their pitching ain't what it used to be!

Other than that, the Monsters might be a little low and the BoSox a little high.

Jet
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All the stats

Postby joethejet » Sat May 03, 2008 7:04 pm

[code:1:5fd36b721f]
Team O P F P+F Overall Div
RoadRun 7935 4932 555 5487 2448 E
25Bucks 8160 5459 283 5743 2417 C
Monster 7913 5252 272 5524 2389 W
BufWing 7823 5009 515 5525 2299 E
PalHose 7393 5034 285 5319 2075 W
Tornado 8123 5305 744 6049 2075 W
HoDaddy 7821 5190 595 5785 2035 W
FCoZips 7744 5191 573 5764 1980 C
Osaints 7673 5148 707 5855 1818 C
WHBoSox 7820 5335 796 6131 1689 E
HelYeah 7108 5077 1028 6105 1003 E
ChMusic 7334 4890 1527 6418 916 C
[/code:1:5fd36b721f]

Here is everything. Defense for the Yeahs and Music is asolutely HORRIBLE. Among the worst I've EVER seen. The Saints and Sox aren't very good either. OTOH, Bucks, Hose and Monsters are VERY good.

In terms of pure pitching, Music actually has the best! Problem is their D moves the combination to the bottom! I'm surprised at where our pitching ended up as I didn't think it was *that* good, but ratings-wise it is. Tornados, BoSox and Bucks pitching isn't all that great. The Bucks make up for it with very good D.

Looking things over, the ratings would say that the Wings and the Runners should battle it out in the East and will be definite contenders for the WC given that the BoSox and Yeahs are the 10,11 rated teams.

The Central would expect the Bucks to run away with it and the Saints to come back to earth.

The West is the toughest division. The ratings say that the Monsters should be the favs with the other three so close you can't really pick between them. I would expect that they willl beat up on each other such that the Runners or the Wings sneak into the WC.

All that being said, inevitably one team over performs and one team under performs their ratings. And, as playing the computer game through shows, there is great variability from play through to play through so it could vary. So far however, things are pretty close. Daddy is riding their 12-6 record intra division to their great start, but next time through may not prove so kind to them.

In any case, I guess we'll see. If I get time, I'll try to do another run through towards the end of the season to see how things have changed.

Jet
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Postby JOHNORDILLE » Sat May 03, 2008 7:09 pm

Interesting stats, thanks for sharing them.

Frankly, I'm surprised my pitching is coming through where it says it should be. If I look at WHIP for each of my pitchers, almost all of them are over, or way over their cards. That's why I figured I should be getting more from them than I am. I have gotten rid of 2 of my pitchers recently too, as I dropped Greg Maddux whose WHIP was about 1.8 or 1.9 I think, and I dropped James Shields and replaced him with A.J. Burnett.
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Postby J-Pav » Sat May 03, 2008 8:15 pm

[b:26dbb76554]Joe[/b:26dbb76554]:

Thanks for taking the time, it's much appreciated. I know a lot of effort goes into compiling the ratings.

Choosing my team the way I did, I think it's obvious we see things through different colored lenses. I don't think I compiled a team designed for the middle of the heap. In fact, I'd go so far as to say I haven't even hit full stride yet!

We'll just have to see how it plays out in the end!

GL and thx again!


:D
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Postby joethejet » Sat May 03, 2008 10:49 pm

Well, let's see.

Posada is very good of course
Loney can hit, but he's an e17. Not bad however
Ojeda is brutal v LHP But has good OB v RHP
Guzman has a horrible glove and is injury prone. Good bat.
Prado/Spiezio - Outside of being weak gloves and no power these guys are decent, but nothing to write home about.
Crawford - Backward LH with a great glove. Weak OB and no power, but he can only get hurt for a short time and has lots of hits.
Rowand - Very solid outside of the lousy clutch.
Kemp - Very good v LHP, decent v RHP. Injury risk, but solid otherwise
Granderson/Butler - Solid platoon.

Summary - you're injury prone and have a short bench. Balanced attack against both rh and lh. Good ob, average and clutch. Not much power. You'll have to stay away from injuries to keep up the pace you're on.

SPs
Zambrano is hard and not very good v LHB. If you're facing lots of RH lineups he'll do great. OTW, decent.
Gabbard - decent, cheap bw LHP.
Snell - Another hard RHP
Marquis - See Snell and gives up 3 bphr v rhb
Wright - See Snell

Summary - if you're facing rh lineups, your pitching will be GREAT. otw it should suck.

RPs
Soria - is very good, but a 1 IP guy
Turnbow - Very good except for the walks. Will have to stay off of the hitters card after walking the bases full. 1 IP guy
Romero - Anotehr guy who walks a ton of hitters.
Beimel - Good hard LHP for the price.
Billingsley - See Marquis, but much better v LHB and fewer hits v RHB. Got 4 bphrs v rHB however.
Shearn - Has lucked into facing almost all LHB so far. I'll be surprised if he can do that all season. Very backward rhp. If you can keep him facing only LHB he'll do well, otherwise...

Summary - Billingsley and Shearn are going to have to be spotted well with all those 1 IP guys. So far they have. Maybe that's great managing by Hal, and maybe that's luck. I don't know which.

You're in Petco which is obviously helping all the HR pitchers you have and keeping their numbers down. However, you have two citizen's parks in your division. Will you be as lucky goign through those parks next time?

Your rating is somewhat skewed by the number of IP Shearn has gotten. As you might imagine, his rating isn't very good and he's posted a 2.60 ERA for you! :shock: Take away those IP and your rating jumps 100 points. Billingsley has also pitched very well, better than his rating would indicate and lots of IP.

Your bench hasn't been pressed into use much yet. Despite playing in Petco, you have one of the better averages in the league. Will be interesting to see if that will continue.

Despite having stonemitt Guzman out there your D is middle of the pack. Having 1's in LF and CF will help that.

In short, it would appear to me that either your pitching or hitting has been better than expected. Right now your park is helping your pitching and not hurting your hitting. I wonder if that will continue. It usually doesn't, but maybe I'm missing something??

OK, tell me where our lenses are different colored here!

Jet
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Postby J-Pav » Sun May 04, 2008 12:54 am

[quote:6956395a58="joethejet"]Well, let's see.

Posada is very good of course
Loney can hit, but he's an e17. Not bad however
Ojeda is brutal v LHP But has good OB v RHP
[color=blue:6956395a58] The Riot is the everyday 2B vs. LHP. Currently HAL is just working around the long Guzman injury thing.[/color:6956395a58]
Guzman has a horrible glove and is injury prone. Good bat.
[color=blue:6956395a58]I like the value here. Just one man's opinion though.[/color:6956395a58]
Prado/Spiezio - Outside of being weak gloves and no power these guys are decent, but nothing to write home about.
[color=blue:6956395a58] Agreed. But again, low dollar value is part of the equation. Spiezio is my Carlos Ruiz.[/color:6956395a58]
Crawford - Backward LH with a great glove. Weak OB and no power, but he can only get hurt for a short time and has lots of hits.
[color=blue:6956395a58] 39 obp-58 tb vs. LHP, 36 obp-46 tb vs. RHP is weak w/ no power? I can live w/ that, I guess.[/color:6956395a58]
Rowand - Very solid outside of the lousy clutch.
Kemp - Very good v LHP, decent v RHP. Injury risk, but solid otherwise
Granderson/Butler - Solid platoon.
[color=blue:6956395a58]Granderson is only now starting to hit, after a horrendous cup o' hate from HAL to start the season. One dinger and one stolen base after 200+ at bats???[/color:6956395a58]

Summary - you're injury prone and have a short bench. Balanced attack against both rh and lh. Good ob, average and clutch. Not much power.
[color=blue:6956395a58]Power=Dingers, no, but Power=Total Bases, yes.[/color:6956395a58]
You'll have to stay away from injuries to keep up the pace you're on.

SPs
Zambrano is hard and not very good v LHB. If you're facing lots of RH lineups he'll do great. OTW, decent.
Gabbard - decent, cheap bw LHP.
Snell - Another hard RHP
Marquis - See Snell and gives up 3 bphr v rhb
Wright - See Snell

Summary - if you're facing rh lineups, your pitching will be GREAT. otw it should suck. [color=blue:6956395a58]Yeah, but except for the [i:6956395a58]Pale Hose[/i:6956395a58] and the [i:6956395a58]Bucks[/i:6956395a58] they ARE mostly RH line-ups. Have the ratings accounted for this??[/color:6956395a58]


RPs
Soria - is very good, but a 1 IP guy
Turnbow - Very good except for the walks. Will have to stay off of the hitters card after walking the bases full. 1 IP guy
Romero - Anotehr guy who walks a ton of hitters.
Beimel - Good hard LHP for the price.
Billingsley - See Marquis, but much better v LHB and fewer hits v RHB. Got 4 bphrs v rHB however.
Shearn - Has lucked into facing almost all LHB so far. I'll be surprised if he can do that all season. Very backward rhp. If you can keep him facing only LHB he'll do well, otherwise...
[color=blue:6956395a58]Lucked? You're kidding here, right?[/color:6956395a58]

Summary - Billingsley and Shearn are going to have to be spotted well with all those 1 IP guys. So far they have. Maybe that's great managing by Hal, and maybe that's luck. I don't know which.
[color=blue:6956395a58]This is an intangible that I don't think your ratings have taken into account. Do you think I have a guy who's 36 obp-56 tb vs. RHB w/ 8 clean + 8 BP homers out there by accident?[/color:6956395a58]

You're in Petco which is obviously helping all the HR pitchers you have and keeping their numbers down. However, you have two citizen's parks in your division. Will you be as lucky going through those parks next time?
[color=blue:6956395a58]Maybe not. But was it only [i:6956395a58]luck[/i:6956395a58] the first time though??[/color:6956395a58]

Your rating is somewhat skewed by the number of IP Shearn has gotten. As you might imagine, his rating isn't very good and he's posted a 2.60 ERA for you! :shock: Take away those IP and your rating jumps 100 points. Billingsley has also pitched very well, better than his rating would indicate and lots of IP.
[color=blue:6956395a58]Better than the rating because, in my opinion, the "rating" undervalues him.[/color:6956395a58]

Your bench hasn't been pressed into use much yet. Despite playing in Petco, you have one of the better averages in the league. Will be interesting to see if that will continue.

Despite having stonemitt Guzman out there your D is middle of the pack. Having 1's in LF and CF will help that.

In short, it would appear to me that either your pitching or hitting has been better than expected. Right now your park is helping your pitching and not hurting your hitting. I wonder if that will continue. It usually doesn't, but maybe I'm missing something??

OK, tell me where our lenses are different colored here!
[color=blue:6956395a58]Obviously, I think the ratings are missing something. My team should rate as high as yours or Jeep's. That it doesn't, just plain puzzles me. But it's okay, because if I'm missing something then I hope to learn from it! [/color:6956395a58]


Jet[/quote:6956395a58]
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Postby carlerik » Sun May 04, 2008 10:01 am

Jet,

Your comments and ratings of my team (Monsters) are pretty close to what I was thinking. At first glance my pitching seems to be overrated (and taken alone it would be) but I knew that I was going to spend money on power hitters and that I would have to take average pitchers. The reason your rating is interesting is that it takes team defense into account. I intentionally went for as good as an up the middle defense as I could get. I will settle for weakness on the corners as long as my CF, SS, and 2B are strong. One has simply to look at a typical pitchers card and see how many SS and 2B x's there are and where they are (i.e. SS and 2B x's will occur far more often than 3B or 1B. This helps to strengthen an otherwise, at best, average starting rotation. I am also lucky that my starters with Molina are very difficult to steal against (although Molina is out with another lengthy injury - lucky Schnieder is a decent backup). My team is certainly not invincible as my bench is thin and my closer (M. Rivera) is overachieving. That being said thanks for the league analysis, it was fun to read.

Carl
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Postby Jeepdriver » Sun May 04, 2008 10:52 am

As always thanks for the ratings. Good to see I'm looking good, but I've been in a slump the last 4-5 days, hopefully will shake out of it soon.

I switched my order around some, uncharacteristically even though the "O" was doing well. Looks like back to the old L/U tonight.

As far as indept team analysis I've mentioned before I go a lot on "feel" and past performance on previous teams and previous leagues. I built this team trying for offense first, and it shows in the ratings.
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Postby joethejet » Mon May 05, 2008 12:39 am

J Pav,

Don't have time to reply tonight. I will say that clearly your guys (especially the two RPs) are being used in ways the ratings don't assume, and they don't compare to your opponents lineups.

Sorry if it sounded like I was saying you were only lucky, I don't think that's the case. I do think that an experienced manager like yourself can get more out of certain types of players than others.

More tomorrow.

Jet
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Postby J-Pav » Mon May 05, 2008 10:10 am

[b:85890fe4d6]Joe[/b:85890fe4d6],

No worries, your posts have been made bulletin board material and have lit a fire under my team!

I'm not worried about the [i:85890fe4d6]opinion[/i:85890fe4d6] of success being luck, I'm worried about the [i:85890fe4d6]math[/i:85890fe4d6] indicating that it's luck.

The frustrating thing is that I see the [u:85890fe4d6]same things[/u:85890fe4d6] you're saying for some of the other teams, but don't understand why you're missing the value for my team. So now I'm trying to figure out if [i:85890fe4d6]I'm[/i:85890fe4d6] the one who's missing something!

A couple of things to consider...

My pitchers walk a lot of guys, but give up far fewer hits. Is a walk equal to a hit in the formula for the ratings? If so, my WHIP will be "middle of the pack" (or worse), which would have the ratings forecasting a higher ERA. I don't think a walk is equal to a hit, hence the strategery.

Pitcher splits: If pitchers are facing the same splits in order to be rated (i.e. [b:85890fe4d6]all[/b:85890fe4d6] RHP will see 50/50 L/R and [b:85890fe4d6]all[/b:85890fe4d6] LHP will see 40/60 L/R), the ratings will not account for individual league characteristics or game specific usage.

Ballparks: half the games are in opposing ballparks. Is the "opposing" ballpark just a league average? Or do the ratings account for the league specific ballparks?
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