Ultimate Strat League Chat

[joethejet]

[quote:2579d33e71="Jeepdriver"]Last night I lost all 3 games in my opponents last at bat. Lost in the bottom of the 14th, bottom of the 10th, and bottom of the 9th.

In addition, I had 20 LOB in Game 1 and 12 in Game 2.

You can't lose 3 and have more heart-break than I did in those games last night.[/quote:2579d33e71]

Jeepie, Wow, tough night for sure. You've had as tough a stretch as our NLD team!

Jet

[carlerik]

Ok. If this is tale of woe time, the Pale Hose lit up M. Rivera last night for 4 runs in the bottom of the 10th. I had said that Rivera was pitching over his head and I guess the chicken's came home to roost. Anyway, I lead the league in defensive double plays with 81 thanks in large part to my "overrated" 1's at SS and 2B.

What is neat about this process is that we all start out with a game plan about our teams and choose a homepark based on this. Of course if others have a similar plan and pick "your" players on earlier rounds that can screw things up. But that is part of the fun. No matter how good you think you are, if you play enough times, you will end up with a stinker team eventually. Since we all have the same amount of $ to work with a few missed draft picks and some unlucky injuries can quickly turn into a 90+ loss season. I am looking forward to getting Y. Molina off of the DL.

Carl

[JOHNORDILLE]

[quote:779e4c3894="joethejet"][quote:779e4c3894="MrSpock29"]I still say my offense is badly underperforming. I am in a hitter-friendly park, yet 7 of my 9 starters are hitting much below their cards.

Mccann: .227, .270 on the card (much below)
Lee: .294, .317 on the card
Utley: .298, .332 on the card (much below)
Feliz: .269, .253 on the card (slightly above)
Renteria: .266, .332 on the card (much below)
Alou: .296, .341 on the card (fewer at bats, I cut the other underperfomer)
Victorino: .281, .298 (slightly above)
Hart: .295, .287 (slightly below but within range)
Ramirez: .332, .278 (much below)

I have 5 starters that hit over .300 on their cards, yet not one of them is hitting over .300 in this series.
Rajai Davis has over 100 at bats, and is hitting .195, his card is .279.

If my team were hitting anywhere close to their cards, my season would be totally different. I have outscored my opponents as it is, yet am 8 games under .500. HAL is the equivalent of an NHL ref in my eyes :twisted:[/quote:779e4c3894]

Spock,

the only guys that are really under performing is McCann and Renteria. Normally you will have a couple of guys do that. You're facing all-star teams, your guys aren't going to hit or pitch as well as you would think. In addition, your park has high HRs, but not singles. You don't have a lot of BPHR hitters as you should in that park. In fact, you have no hitters with 8 bphrs v RHP! :shock: And, you are much better v LHP than RHP. You've faced 3 to 1 RHP to LHP. It's not a surprise you are where you are.

If you want to see a team that's underperforming take a look at my offense. ;)

Jet[/quote:779e4c3894]
I have to disagree with you, Utley is slightly better against righties also, and he is well below his card. Alou only had 54 at bats, but he is 50 points below his card, and is only slightly better against lefties.
Looking at the splits, Ramirez is only at .310 against lefties, where he is a 5l, yet his BA on the card is .332. Something is still wrong there.
Davis is hitting .172 against righties, that's not due to ball park. Utley is 1R, yet hitting under .270 against righties.
I do have guys with BPHR's, maybe not 8's, but Ramirez for example, is 10, 11, and 12. BP hits are 1-8, I am not sure a 1-13, for example, would square all those numbers. FWIW, I have 21 more at bats at home, with 20 more hits, so I am not sure that makes the case that my BP singles is hurting me. I have 59 home homers, 29 on the road.

[J-Pav]

[quote:656c0f8582="joethejet"]Hey J,

You're making this more complicated than it is!

I put in the exact parks for every team and their own schedule. So, I have you playing 24 games in Citizen's and 81 in Petco with 12 in RFK and 6 in all the other league parks.

I did that for every team so, each team has it's own rating basis in a sense because they play a different schedule. I used to do it off of the league average but, as you point out, that was a flawed way to do it. In other words, your rating is for your team in the parks you play in. My rating is for my team in the parks I play in. Does that make sense now?

I've been trying to say this, but either I'm a lousy communicator or you just don't believe me! ;)

[color=blue:656c0f8582]I believe you! I'm just not that familiar w/ how your "ratings" work inside the black box. Since I'm not too fast with the computer skills, I can't envision how you would calculate all that. It seems to me very complicated that you can compute all that w/out running simulations. [/color:656c0f8582]

I think your offense is less than optimal in Citizen's because you have virtually no BPHRs to take advantage of the park. Same with my squad.

[color=blue:656c0f8582]I didn't mean to imply "optimal" in the overall sense, only that I (or anyone) will score [i:656c0f8582]more[/i:656c0f8582] runs in a hitters park than a pitchers park (offense only). "Optimal" is the net runs created from the balance between hitting and pitching, which is why Petco works for my particular team. [/color:656c0f8582]

Oh, I don't think our team is "ideal". I think it is good, but it has it's flaws as any 80 mill team does

[color=blue:656c0f8582]Ideal only in the sense that we're maximizing the very best we are able to what we have available to work with.[/color:656c0f8582]

Your team is well crafted to take advantage of your park and the lineups your facing. That's why it is "over performing" the rating. Your SPs really aren't that good and your D doesn't help all that much. However, given that you're facing a majority of RHB, all the hard guys you have are going to do better. The park helps them too.

[color=blue:656c0f8582]I disagree wholeheartedly with the [i:656c0f8582]aren't that good[/i:656c0f8582] thing.[/color:656c0f8582]

[color=blue:656c0f8582]There's a value thing here that is not being considered.[/color:656c0f8582]

[color=blue:656c0f8582]For instance, adjusted for my ballpark, Wright ($1.60) has nearly an identical card against lefties as Brandon Webb ($6.63) [I'm computing around .600 OPS for Webb, .650 OPS for Wright]. Wright is worse against RHB, but is still very strong. [I'm showing an outstanding .200 OPS for Webb, .400 for Wright]. Incidentally, I'm showing Verlander ($6.08) as .400 vs. RHB also. So for $1.60 I'm getting Webb's left side of the card and Verlander's right side (13 DPs left, 12 DPs right to boot), but your ratings label him as "pathetic." Even if my math were off by a factor of three (and it's not), Wright would still be a tremendous bargain in Petco. He's costing me 25% of a stud SP but delivering 100% of the results. [/color:656c0f8582]

Your team is deficit in terms of defense, and SPs facing LHB heavy lineups. In fact, in terms of ratings, they are the worst in the league.

[color=blue:656c0f8582]Disagree again.[/color:656c0f8582]

Your pen walks too many guys so I expect that it will either leave a ton of guys on or give up big innings.

[color=blue:656c0f8582]I have a top half ERA and WHIP because I'm not surrendering many total bases. Walks and singles do not move a lot of runners around the basepaths for the opposing hitters. It shouldn't be that hard to see.[/color:656c0f8582]

Your rating is hurt, as I mentioned because Shearn is getting so many innings. His rating isn't very good, but the rating doesn't expect him to face 2 to 1 LHBs so if that continues, he's going to be very good for you. Even with all the IP that Shearn is getting, your RPs rank in the middle of the pack which means the rest of them are pretty good. The lack of BPHRs will hurt you in the HR parks.

[color=blue:656c0f8582]I disagree with the [i:656c0f8582]middle of the pack[/i:656c0f8582] RPs thing. [/color:656c0f8582]

As for strengths, you have good OB both ways, good hits on your card and TBs to go with them. excellent clutch as well. Soria is very tough and you're spotting the other guys effectively. Your pitching matches up well with Monster and Tornado in your division. You hit righties almost as well as lefties so there is good balance there. The team is well built for a Petco team with the exception that I think you could use better D. So, you're middle of the pack, primarily because of your SP and defense ratings. I think if you would have, let's say Vizquel at SS with an upgrade over Prado (maybe Tracy?) at 3b, your team would rate better.

[color=blue:656c0f8582]Vizquel would cost my offense [i:656c0f8582]much[/i:656c0f8582] more than Guzman hurts my defense. The one at SS is just not necessary. The [i:656c0f8582]Monsters[/i:656c0f8582] would be better off with Aaron Miles at 2B instead of paying Phillips more than [b:656c0f8582][i:656c0f8582]ten times[/i:656c0f8582][/b:656c0f8582] as much to be last in runs scored among second baseman. The extra DPs do not, in my opinion, justify paying for OPS against LHP that he's seeing only 27% of the time.[/color:656c0f8582]

I think the ratings take how difficult it is to hit in a pitchers park, I think they don't take into account that your hard RHP are going to face an inordinate amount of RHB. ;)

[color=blue:656c0f8582]I don't think they do. Just my 0.02. And you help me believe it more because you seem overly concerned about defense and BPHRs, to the point that I think you're missing some of the forest for the trees.[/color:656c0f8582]

I think you're wrong about 1's and 2's. You probably haven't played the game FTF. They do turn into runs, both in terms of visible (i.e. errors) and things you don't see like DPs and hits.

[color=blue:656c0f8582]I don't have to play face to face to know this. I understand they turn into runs. I would argue that I just watched Guzman/Furcal put 100+ runs on the board in one season. Vizquel played the full season and put up 39 runs (567 PAs with .225/.281/.286). If you think Vizquel is [i:656c0f8582]helping[/i:656c0f8582] anyone's team (other than as a platoon w/ Guzman!) than again, in my opinion, the ratings are not reflecting what is actually important. You don't win with ratings or by leading in DPs turned, you win by net runs, no?[/color:656c0f8582]

You're right that there is a specific assumption made about the number of RHB and LHB a pitcher will take given their ratings. You are very definitely taking advantage of that and that's the biggest part of why you're overperforming what would be expected. Plus, you are winning the close games which usually comes down to getting some good die rolls. ;) If that doesn't turn around, and it doesn't always, then you will end up on top in the end.

So, how about some observations about my team? ;)

[color=blue:656c0f8582]There's not a guy on your team that I wouldn't want on my own team.

Personally, if you want a nitpick, I think you can do better than Ruiz, but Flores is contributing surprisingly well as a platoon. I've seen Abreu do very nicely for a couple of teams, but his card of 34 obp-33 tb against LHP and 42 obp-37 tb doesn't appear a good value to me. As a counterpoint, I think the Bourn/Jones platoon is a much better value (34 obp-[b:656c0f8582][size=12:656c0f8582]46 tb[/size:656c0f8582][/b:656c0f8582] vs. LHP, 37 obp-[b:656c0f8582][size=12:656c0f8582]47 tb[/size:656c0f8582][/b:656c0f8582] vs. RHP) for the same price.

Among cards HAL has not been merciful on, I add Bell. He has the best RP card in my opinion, but I have seen him get knocked senseless on not only one of my teams, but on [i:656c0f8582]several[/i:656c0f8582] other teams as well. The card just does not justify it, but there it is. Bad HAL karma (that can change though, and I suspect it will).

I said from the start that I thought you, me and [b:656c0f8582]Jeep[/b:656c0f8582] were the stronger teams. No personal offense to anyone, just the way I read the math. Nothing has changed my opinion of this and the records should reflect it (imo) in the end, although I recognize that oftentimes they don't[/color:656c0f8582]

Jet
www.angelfire.com/games5/joethejet[/quote:656c0f8582]

[JOHNORDILLE]

I found a good web site with splits from last year. Here's a look at Hanley Ramirez.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=ramirha01&year=2007
Against LHP's in 2007, he hit .399
So far here, he is .310, a major decline from HAL, but with only 58 AB's.

Against RHP's in 2007, he hit .312.
So far here, .269, or 43 points lower.

Here's a look at Utley:
http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=utleych01&year=2007
Against LHP's in 2007, he hit .318.
So far here, .391, which is much better, although only 1/3 of his AB's roughly.
Against RHP's in 2007, he hit .340.
.268 here, 72 points is a lot for this many AB's.

http://www.baseball-reference.com/pi/bsplit.cgi?n1=renteed01&year=2007
Renteria hit .349 and .323 against lefties and righties respectively, he is giving me .282 and .262. The only thing HAL got right was the 20 point spread.

Interesting web site. And, it is 12:07, so I am probably outscoring my opponent for the series, while winning 1 game (if I'm lucky) :(

[JOHNORDILLE]

Whoops, HAL got done early, I took 2 out of 3, while outscoring my opponent 20 to 6.
Which makes less sense, being 5 under .500 yet outscoring your opponents by 19 runs, or being 1 game worse than the Saints, who are being OUTSCORED by 63?

Put down the pipe HAL.

[joethejet]

J,

Wright is 100 rating points worse than Webb v LHB. He has 100 more ob chances than Webb. Don't know how you can think they'd be anywhere near the same. OPS is a crude way of evaluating worth. It just doesn't tell the whole story. Remember that every hitter Wright puts on base will give the offense more chances and more chances to roll on their own cards. Obviously Webb is better v RHB. You are right however about Wright and Verlander being close v RHB, but Verlander is MUCH better v LHB.

Again, there's a reason your SPs are cheap. They just aren't that good unless you can find a situation where they don't face LHBs. You've found that hence they are "over performing". It's that simple.

You have a good WHIP and ERA because you're facing a crap load of RHBs (with the obvious exception of Shearn). Do you expect Gabbard to put up a .96 Whip all season? Billingsley 1.18? Zambrano with a 1.12 whip v LHB? Wright a 1.10 whip v LHB? Personally I don't think it's likely even in Petco.

High OBs on your pitchers give the other guy chances to roll on his card. That shouldn't be that hard to see. ;)

It's also surprsing to me that any team, even one like yours that fits Petco so well, is hitting .273! :shock: and .265 at home.

Dude, your RP rating is your rating because of the assumption made about Shearn. The rating doesn't assume he's going to face that many LHB. If it did then your rating would be closer to the performance you're getting.

Vizquel would not do that, but you're not taking DPs into account so I wouldn't expect you to get that.

I do agree that Lefty killers are over priced in this set (and last year's) and told them that, but they didn't adjust the prices. <shrug> What are you going to do. But, that doesn't have that much to do with Phillips being a 1.

You're absolutely wrong on whether the ratings take into account how hard it is to hit in a pitcher's park. You act like it affects every roll. You're talking about your impressions while I'm telling you what the actual numbers and impact are.

You're wrong about Guzman versus Vizquel because you're using a small set of data to do so and you don't have the information on the fielding you would need to make that decision in any case. I don't think Vizquel is way better, they are actually fairly close, but I do think your team would be better with Vizquel. Put it this way in the NLD (with 12 very experienced managers), Vizquel and McDonald were picked in the first 10 rounds and Guzman is still sitting the the waiver wire. Maybe we're all wrong and you're right. <shrug>

As for my team, you make some good observations. Ruiz isn't all that great, but his OB is OK and he has a good clutch and a -1 arm. Sort of like your Prado pick, he's cheap and he's hitting 8th. He's under performing so far, but Flores is over so it probably balanced out.

I didn't draft Bourn, but took him when I didn't get Taveras. Actually, I like Abreu, he's relatively cheap, has a good OB and won't miss any games. He's also decent enough v LHP to play him against the backwards ones. And, he can run. That was something I was looking for on this team. He is a singles hitter however. Bell has been a disappointment. No way a guy with that card should be giving up a .285 average! Oh well, hopefully things will even out for us. We haven't been very lucky so far with a few exceptions.

I think we're going to have to agree to disagree, you're basing things off of OPS and you're not taking into account all the factors the ratings take into account. OPS counts hits twice that's why you like guys who walk a ton of guys but don't give up hits. I believe that approach is flawed, but, then again, you're kicking booty so what I can I say?

As for records, as I said, after simming many leagues multiple times, I've come to find that the results can vary widely from sim to sim and it comes down to when you get the die rolls to an uncomfortable extent. Yes, the good teams will almost always finish ahead of the bad teams, but the teams in the middle sometimes rise above their place.

In your case, I think the ratings are too low because they don't take into account the lineups your pitchers are facing or that Hal will use guys like Shearn so effectively. Maybe that's something I need to revisit.

[joethejet]

Spock,

You're going to drive yourself crazy if you think your guys are going to hit what they hit last year. They are facing MUCH better pitching on the whole. I used to think that and I've come to realize that you'll have to settle for 15-20 points below with a couple players way below and usually a couple somewhat above. You've only had a couple of teams so I can understand why you would think that!

You're second in the league in scoring and you're hitting .273. What do you want? :? That's pretty much what the ratings would expect.

Normally when you build a Citizen's team you want a ton of BPHRs and your pitchers should have very few. You didn't do that and I think it's going to cost you. Take a look at Jeep's team for how you want to build an HR park team. But even he shouldn't have two guys who are weak v RHP and 3 v LHP.

I'm not saying none of your guys are below what you might expect here or there, but that, as a whole, you're not all that far off given the level of pitching.

Don't take what I'm saying personal, it's just observations gained by playing this game for 32 years FTF and online since its inception.

Jet

[joethejet]

Ouch, talk about tales of woe, we lost Lincecum for 10 games! :shock: We don't have another SP so that's going to put a LOT of pressure on the pen. Ugh.

Oh, and, of course, we lost the only one run game of the series. :roll: Bell falls to 0-5 with an ERA near 5. Gives up a 1-3 HR to cost us the game. UGH.

Also lost Ruiz for 10.

Jet

[JOHNORDILLE]

[quote:773adefb54="joethejet"]Spock,

You're going to drive yourself crazy if you think your guys are going to hit what they hit last year. They are facing MUCH better pitching on the whole. I used to think that and I've come to realize that you'll have to settle for 15-20 points below with a couple players way below and usually a couple somewhat above. You've only had a couple of teams so I can understand why you would think that!

You're second in the league in scoring and you're hitting .273. What do you want? :? That's pretty much what the ratings would expect.

Normally when you build a Citizen's team you want a ton of BPHRs and your pitchers should have very few. You didn't do that and I think it's going to cost you. Take a look at Jeep's team for how you want to build an HR park team. But even he shouldn't have two guys who are weak v RHP and 3 v LHP.

I'm not saying none of your guys are below what you might expect here or there, but that, as a whole, you're not all that far off given the level of pitching.

Don't take what I'm saying personal, it's just observations gained by playing this game for 32 years FTF and online since its inception.

Jet[/quote:773adefb54]
Remember, when this discussion started, my team was hitting .263, not .273. A week or so ago, it was under .260. I've had a couple of heavy-hitting series.
15-20 points is a lot different than 50 to 60, and it was NOT 1 or 2 guys. But things look different now for the numbers because of recent performance.
As far as pitching goes, I think you are overstating a bit how much better it is. Pitchers are facing all-star hitters too.
Also, no offense, but I still don't think you are seeing the BPHR issue correctly. I am 3rd in the league in homers, and I have hit 2/3rds of my homers at home. How is that building my team badly for my park? The numbers don't agree with that assessment at all.
In a perfect world, I'd have all guys with nothing but power, and all pitchers that are studs, but there are 11 other teams that pick, and a salary cap. I think I managed to build a team with an offense that should hit for average and power, and should steal some bases. The problem is the record and how it got there. I keep seeing Feliz being used as a DEFENSIVE sub in LF. WTF? He's a 5! I have played this live too, and I guarantee you I would play my team better than HAL can. I have played a lot of strat, more than just a couple of times.
If you read one of my very first posts, I mentioned how there were going to be games where I'd have to outslug some teams, so I knew exactly what I was doing.
However, I am still below .500 while OUTSCORING my opponents, while one team in the Central at one point was at .500 or above while being OUTSCORED by 50. Now he's one game better than me, being outscored even more. But I guess we are going in circles here.

edit to add:[code:1:773adefb54]Name W L S BS IP H R ER BB SO HR ERA WHIP
TOTALS Home 15 18 6 1 308.0 344 182 162 94 217 48 4.73 1.42
Road 17 19 10 4 307.1 305 155 145 94 226 44 4.25 1.30
OVERALL 32 37 16 5 615.1 649 337 307 188 443 92 4.49 1.36[/code:1:773adefb54]
My homers given up are very similar home and away, the difference is hits, so if my park isn't hitter-friendly with BP singles, then that isn't working out either. As far as giving up HR's, I don't think a case can be made that my pitchers have been hurt by CBP, at least not yet. The number of unearned runs is also double there.