[quote:dca4f546a6="joethejet"]J,
Wright is 100 rating points worse than Webb v LHB. He has 100 more ob chances than Webb. Don't know how you can think they'd be anywhere near the same. OPS is a crude way of evaluating worth. It just doesn't tell the whole story. Remember that every hitter Wright puts on base will give the offense more chances and more chances to roll on their own cards. Obviously Webb is better v RHB. You are right however about Wright and Verlander being close v RHB, but Verlander is MUCH better v LHB.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]Is he $4 1/2 mil better? That's all I'm saying.[/color:dca4f546a6]
Again, there's a reason your SPs are cheap. They just aren't that good unless you can find a situation where they don't face LHBs. You've found that hence they are "over performing". It's that simple.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]Simple is good. [/color:dca4f546a6]
You have a good WHIP and ERA because you're facing a crap load of RHBs (with the obvious exception of Shearn). Do you expect Gabbard to put up a .96 Whip all season? Billingsley 1.18? Zambrano with a 1.12 whip v LHB? Wright a 1.10 whip v LHB? Personally I don't think it's likely even in Petco.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]No, but it's a start.[/color:dca4f546a6]
High OBs on your pitchers give the other guy chances to roll on his card. That shouldn't be that hard to see. ;)
It's also surprsing to me that any team, even one like yours that fits Petco so well, is hitting .273! :shock: and .265 at home.
Dude, your RP rating is your rating because of the assumption made about Shearn. The rating doesn't assume he's going to face that many LHB. If it did then your rating would be closer to the performance you're getting.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]Shearn has overperformed. He'll be around a 4.00 ERA when it's all said and done. I'm okay with that.[/color:dca4f546a6]
Vizquel would not do that, but you're not taking DPs into account so I wouldn't expect you to get that.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]Joe, what's the actual math on DPs? I'm above the league average with 73 (league avg is the magic number of 69). If [i:dca4f546a6]Monsters[/i:dca4f546a6] are leading with 83, I'm 10 off that pace w/ 73. I'm doing it w/ a $2.78 3e31 and a $3.78 2e5 at 2B. They have scored 61 runs, plus Theriot's nine, for 70 runs scored. The [i:dca4f546a6]Monsters[/i:dca4f546a6] have scored 80 runs from 2B and SS and have ten more double plays. So it cost them $15 mil of salary to get 10 more runs and 10 more double plays than my team. I say give it to him! Yes, you don't have to throw in the unearned runs and lost opportunity cost, I know that's there, too. I just assess a pocket of value here.
I know Jeter and Roberts haven't cut loose yet, but at this point in time they've given you 67 runs and 64 DPs for $13.40 mil. [/color:dca4f546a6]
I do agree that Lefty killers are over priced in this set (and last year's) and told them that, but they didn't adjust the prices. <shrug> What are you going to do. But, that doesn't have that much to do with Phillips being a 1.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]See above.[/color:dca4f546a6]
You're absolutely wrong on whether the ratings take into account how hard it is to hit in a pitcher's park. You act like it affects every roll. You're talking about your impressions while I'm telling you what the actual numbers and impact are.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6][You're getting frustrated w/ me now. These posts are running too long, so we should probably throttle back]. My "impressions" of the pitchers park is that the newer players haven't accounted for how dramatically a Big Offense is subverted by a park like RFK or Petco. [/color:dca4f546a6]
You're wrong about Guzman versus Vizquel because you're using a small set of data to do so and you don't have the information on the fielding you would need to make that decision in any case. I don't think Vizquel is way better, they are actually fairly close, but I do think your team would be better with Vizquel. Put it this way in the NLD (with 12 very experienced managers), Vizquel and McDonald were picked in the first 10 rounds and Guzman is still sitting the the waiver wire. Maybe we're all wrong and you're right. <shrug>
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]Wow, you are frustrated with me aren't you? It's impossible that an opportunity could be missed in an NLD League, I guess. I'm not saying anybody's wrong. I'm saying I see a perceived opportunity and your mad at me because it doesn't agree with your assessment.[/color:dca4f546a6]
As for my team, you make some good observations. Ruiz isn't all that great, but his OB is OK and he has a good clutch and a -1 arm. Sort of like your Prado pick, he's cheap and he's hitting 8th. He's under performing so far, but Flores is over so it probably balanced out.
I didn't draft Bourn, but took him when I didn't get Taveras. Actually, I like Abreu, he's relatively cheap, has a good OB and won't miss any games. He's also decent enough v LHP to play him against the backwards ones. And, he can run. That was something I was looking for on this team. He is a singles hitter however. Bell has been a disappointment. No way a guy with that card should be giving up a .285 average! Oh well, hopefully things will even out for us. We haven't been very lucky so far with a few exceptions.
I think we're going to have to agree to disagree, you're basing things off of OPS and you're not taking into account all the factors the ratings take into account. OPS counts hits twice that's why you like guys who walk a ton of guys but don't give up hits. I believe that approach is flawed, but, then again, you're kicking booty so what I can I say?
As for records, as I said, after simming many leagues multiple times, I've come to find that the results can vary widely from sim to sim and it comes down to when you get the die rolls to an uncomfortable extent. Yes, the good teams will almost always finish ahead of the bad teams, but the teams in the middle sometimes rise above their place.
In your case, I think the ratings are too low because they don't take into account the lineups your pitchers are facing or that Hal will use guys like Shearn so effectively. Maybe that's something I need to revisit.
[color=blue:dca4f546a6]In a spirit of friendly cooperation, I give you the [url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=88469][size=18:dca4f546a6]Joe The Jet/J-Pav Tribute Team[/size:dca4f546a6][/url], happily combining players we both like so it looks as if we get along better than the tone the posts are moving toward.[/color:dca4f546a6]
[/quote:dca4f546a6]
Ultimate Strat League Chat
by Jeepdriver » Wed May 07, 2008 10:50 am
Bounced back with a sweep of my own last night. I'm due for a winning streak, let's see if I can put some wins together.
- Jeepdriver
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Wed May 07, 2008 3:25 pm
Hey J,
Nothing personal, I am a little frustrated and the posts *are* running too long.
Take a look and see if your pitchers have a lot of DPs on their cards, maybe that's why you have a lot of DPs. <shrug> I *can* tell you it's despite your infield defense. As for your comparison, you're using one instance of data which isn't a valid way to compare things.
Guzman is a good bat and an injury risk. You've covered for his lousy D by having a 2e5 at 2b and a couple of 1's in the OF. That's a good strategy. As I said, he's a little bit lower rated than Vizquel when adjusted for injury, Maybe that makes him a good bargain. My statement about the NLD is to say there are at least several experienced managers who think that vizquel or McDonald are a big step up from Guzman. Maybe they're wrong. It's happened before I'm sure.
Our conversation comes down to:
You - OPS is king, D doesn't matter
Me - Statistically OPS isn't accurate and D does matter.
I don't think we're going to agree and that's OK.
I do think you did a great job of putting a team together to match your park and your opponents and that's why your team is over performing the rating and I think it will continue to do so. I tried to explain why your team is over peforming the rating, but maybe I didn't do that well.
Remember too, team ratings aren't player ratings (although one uses the other!)
In any case, it's been interesting, but I'm not sure there's a lot to be gained by continuing.
No hard feelings I hope.
Jet
Nothing personal, I am a little frustrated and the posts *are* running too long.
Take a look and see if your pitchers have a lot of DPs on their cards, maybe that's why you have a lot of DPs. <shrug> I *can* tell you it's despite your infield defense. As for your comparison, you're using one instance of data which isn't a valid way to compare things.
Guzman is a good bat and an injury risk. You've covered for his lousy D by having a 2e5 at 2b and a couple of 1's in the OF. That's a good strategy. As I said, he's a little bit lower rated than Vizquel when adjusted for injury, Maybe that makes him a good bargain. My statement about the NLD is to say there are at least several experienced managers who think that vizquel or McDonald are a big step up from Guzman. Maybe they're wrong. It's happened before I'm sure.
Our conversation comes down to:
You - OPS is king, D doesn't matter
Me - Statistically OPS isn't accurate and D does matter.
I don't think we're going to agree and that's OK.
I do think you did a great job of putting a team together to match your park and your opponents and that's why your team is over performing the rating and I think it will continue to do so. I tried to explain why your team is over peforming the rating, but maybe I didn't do that well.
Remember too, team ratings aren't player ratings (although one uses the other!)
In any case, it's been interesting, but I'm not sure there's a lot to be gained by continuing.
No hard feelings I hope.
Jet
- joethejet
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Wed May 07, 2008 3:40 pm
Spock,
yes some of your players are underperforming, but every team has those guys, take a look around. As a whole you're about where you should be IMHO.
yes, you've had bad luck to be below .500 with a + run diff.
I also contend your team is not a good fit for your park. You don't have to believe me, but do me a favor and post it out on the strategy forum and see what they say. Look at Jeep's team, that team is built for his park. You have balanced HR power, but typically not as much as you want for your park and your pitchers have a ton of BPHRs. You have a better run differential on the road than at home.
yes, you can manage better than Hal. ;) We all could. Believe it or not, Hal is much better than in 2002 when this thing started.
It's true your team is much better offensively v LHP and you haven't see that many.
yes, your homers are close to the same home and away exactly because your team isn't built all that well for your park
I know you're saying that the sample (half a season) isn't entirely supporting what I'm saying, but statistically you should be able to understand what I'm getting at.
You are majorly underperforming your rating, it's very true, but it isn't because you're not hitting in total, it's that your not getting the breaks when you need them. You're rolling low numbers when you're up by 6 instead of when you need that two out hit in a close game. You just have to hold tight and hope that the dice start rolling for you!
Jet
yes some of your players are underperforming, but every team has those guys, take a look around. As a whole you're about where you should be IMHO.
yes, you've had bad luck to be below .500 with a + run diff.
I also contend your team is not a good fit for your park. You don't have to believe me, but do me a favor and post it out on the strategy forum and see what they say. Look at Jeep's team, that team is built for his park. You have balanced HR power, but typically not as much as you want for your park and your pitchers have a ton of BPHRs. You have a better run differential on the road than at home.
yes, you can manage better than Hal. ;) We all could. Believe it or not, Hal is much better than in 2002 when this thing started.
It's true your team is much better offensively v LHP and you haven't see that many.
yes, your homers are close to the same home and away exactly because your team isn't built all that well for your park
I know you're saying that the sample (half a season) isn't entirely supporting what I'm saying, but statistically you should be able to understand what I'm getting at.
You are majorly underperforming your rating, it's very true, but it isn't because you're not hitting in total, it's that your not getting the breaks when you need them. You're rolling low numbers when you're up by 6 instead of when you need that two out hit in a close game. You just have to hold tight and hope that the dice start rolling for you!
Jet
- joethejet
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by JOHNORDILLE » Wed May 07, 2008 3:51 pm
[quote:3c828db89b="joethejet"]Spock,
yes some of your players are underperforming, but every team has those guys, take a look around. As a whole you're about where you should be IMHO.
yes, you've had bad luck to be below .500 with a + run diff.
I also contend your team is not a good fit for your park. You don't have to believe me, but do me a favor and post it out on the strategy forum and see what they say. Look at Jeep's team, that team is built for his park. You have balanced HR power, but typically not as much as you want for your park and your pitchers have a ton of BPHRs. You have a better run differential on the road than at home.
yes, you can manage better than Hal. ;) We all could. Believe it or not, Hal is much better than in 2002 when this thing started.
It's true your team is much better offensively v LHP and you haven't see that many.
yes, your homers are close to the same home and away exactly because your team isn't built all that well for your park
I know you're saying that the sample (half a season) isn't entirely supporting what I'm saying, but statistically you should be able to understand what I'm getting at.
You are majorly underperforming your rating, it's very true, but it isn't because you're not hitting in total, it's that your not getting the breaks when you need them. You're rolling low numbers when you're up by 6 instead of when you need that two out hit in a close game. You just have to hold tight and hope that the dice start rolling for you!
Jet[/quote:3c828db89b]
Jet,
Just to clarify, it's my PITCHERS that have basically the same HR totals home and away, NOT my hitters. Key point.
What that tells me is, so far anyway, my pitchers have not hurt me in my ball park, and my hitters are hitting homers at a 2:1 clip vs. on the road. At CBP, it seems to me that isn't a bad thing. And I have outhomered my opposition at home. The run difference is partly due to having 20 unearned runs at home, and only 10 on the road.
I also say that most of the time, you either go for homers, or average, and I feel I have both. That must be working, because scoring hasn't been that much of a problem for me. The last series I had is my season in a microcosm. I outscored my opponent 20-6, outhit him 37 to 10, and lost the middle game 3-2.
In fact, I think it isn't too common to be 3rd in BA, 3rd in HR's, and 3rd in steals, and that seems like a good combination. This, with the aforementioned hitters underperforming.
yes some of your players are underperforming, but every team has those guys, take a look around. As a whole you're about where you should be IMHO.
yes, you've had bad luck to be below .500 with a + run diff.
I also contend your team is not a good fit for your park. You don't have to believe me, but do me a favor and post it out on the strategy forum and see what they say. Look at Jeep's team, that team is built for his park. You have balanced HR power, but typically not as much as you want for your park and your pitchers have a ton of BPHRs. You have a better run differential on the road than at home.
yes, you can manage better than Hal. ;) We all could. Believe it or not, Hal is much better than in 2002 when this thing started.
It's true your team is much better offensively v LHP and you haven't see that many.
yes, your homers are close to the same home and away exactly because your team isn't built all that well for your park
I know you're saying that the sample (half a season) isn't entirely supporting what I'm saying, but statistically you should be able to understand what I'm getting at.
You are majorly underperforming your rating, it's very true, but it isn't because you're not hitting in total, it's that your not getting the breaks when you need them. You're rolling low numbers when you're up by 6 instead of when you need that two out hit in a close game. You just have to hold tight and hope that the dice start rolling for you!
Jet[/quote:3c828db89b]
Jet,
Just to clarify, it's my PITCHERS that have basically the same HR totals home and away, NOT my hitters. Key point.
What that tells me is, so far anyway, my pitchers have not hurt me in my ball park, and my hitters are hitting homers at a 2:1 clip vs. on the road. At CBP, it seems to me that isn't a bad thing. And I have outhomered my opposition at home. The run difference is partly due to having 20 unearned runs at home, and only 10 on the road.
I also say that most of the time, you either go for homers, or average, and I feel I have both. That must be working, because scoring hasn't been that much of a problem for me. The last series I had is my season in a microcosm. I outscored my opponent 20-6, outhit him 37 to 10, and lost the middle game 3-2.
In fact, I think it isn't too common to be 3rd in BA, 3rd in HR's, and 3rd in steals, and that seems like a good combination. This, with the aforementioned hitters underperforming.
- JOHNORDILLE
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by J-Pav » Wed May 07, 2008 4:13 pm
[quote:259c203b19="joethejet"]
No hard feelings I hope.
Jet[/quote:259c203b19]
Joe, there never were hard feelings. I actually thought it was a pretty good dialogue, something I don't really get from the boards these days. You've seen the posts out there, you know what I mean.
I'm pretty non-confrontational, so maybe it's just overzealousness in looking for a good discussion. When you've played as long as we have, it's either all talked out already, or it takes a great deal of talking to get to the point.
I'm actually not "all OPS, no defense", I think that it came out that way to highlight a point. It wasn't worth going down the tangent to clarify it because it would've just bogged down the discussion further.
I see what you're saying. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but I do get your side of things.
[b:259c203b19]J[/b:259c203b19]
P.S.
And I'm not even mad about Verlander slowing down our Tribute Team with his subpar start! :D
No hard feelings I hope.
Jet[/quote:259c203b19]
Joe, there never were hard feelings. I actually thought it was a pretty good dialogue, something I don't really get from the boards these days. You've seen the posts out there, you know what I mean.
I'm pretty non-confrontational, so maybe it's just overzealousness in looking for a good discussion. When you've played as long as we have, it's either all talked out already, or it takes a great deal of talking to get to the point.
I'm actually not "all OPS, no defense", I think that it came out that way to highlight a point. It wasn't worth going down the tangent to clarify it because it would've just bogged down the discussion further.
I see what you're saying. I don't necessarily agree with all of it, but I do get your side of things.
[b:259c203b19]J[/b:259c203b19]
P.S.
And I'm not even mad about Verlander slowing down our Tribute Team with his subpar start! :D
- J-Pav
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by JOHNORDILLE » Thu May 08, 2008 2:29 pm
I guess all I needed to do to get my offense to where it should be was to complain about it here. At it's low point during my 2nd 7 game losing streak, it was about .253, but is now .275, much more where it should be IMHO. My pitching has edged up as well, now it is towards the middle of the pack instead of at the bottom.
- JOHNORDILLE
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Thu May 08, 2008 4:04 pm
Spock,
You're using too small of a sample size to make your case. Sorry man, your team isn't a very good fit for your park. As I said, post to the Strategy forum and see what other people say. Then you can :P to me. ;)
I will say that you've been unlucky however. I will also say your offense, as a whole, hasn't underperformed.
Jet
You're using too small of a sample size to make your case. Sorry man, your team isn't a very good fit for your park. As I said, post to the Strategy forum and see what other people say. Then you can :P to me. ;)
I will say that you've been unlucky however. I will also say your offense, as a whole, hasn't underperformed.
Jet
- joethejet
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- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by joethejet » Thu May 08, 2008 4:05 pm
J,
No worries. I just got frustrated going round and round, not getting through. Clearly you don't buy in completely to what I'm saying because you have your own, successful forumla. That's OK with me.
You might find this link about the problems with OPS interesting: http://www.veltens.com/ops.htm
Jet
No worries. I just got frustrated going round and round, not getting through. Clearly you don't buy in completely to what I'm saying because you have your own, successful forumla. That's OK with me.
You might find this link about the problems with OPS interesting: http://www.veltens.com/ops.htm
Jet
Last edited by joethejet on Thu May 08, 2008 4:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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