[quote:60252e576b="PracticalDoc"]...
I also agree with others that HAL really overemphasizes hitting, regardless of the decade you're playing in.[/quote:60252e576b]
I like this thinking. It makes it easier for me to put together my dominant pitching teams. When I can get the staff I want, my teams do very well.
This Is Total BS
45 posts
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by blue turtle » Mon Jun 09, 2008 12:34 pm
[quote:496685206b]And to put it another way: why do you assume that your current stretch of 2-7 is bad luck, but your previous 10-5 stretch is a result of skill? It's a 162 game season not a 150 game season, and your team's poor performance over the last 12 games is as much a combination of luck and skill as your team's good performance the previous 12.[/quote:496685206b]
My thoughts exactly.
My thoughts exactly.
- blue turtle
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by jmoore1966 » Mon Jun 09, 2008 7:02 pm
This is a skill game with luck as a variable. The standard deviation is Strat's strength, not its weakness. It has the ability to simulate reality over the long term but to give unpredictable results in the short term. If it was predictable, we would soon become bored with it and move onto other things.
If it was pure skill, it would be called chess.
If it was pure skill, it would be called chess.
- jmoore1966
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Phenomenal » Mon Jun 09, 2008 9:06 pm
Wow, URI... you busted up the conspiracy. I talked with Hal, they have indeed singled you out from all the players and have decidedly made sure you would be in the lead at the end of the season and then toy with you by making you choke the pennant away. Sucks to be you man
Oh by the way, you mentioned you dominated your division (by giving us about the last 20 games you played in division) and then go on to say you were 9-9 against the last place team in your division. Now that is really dominating.
You also mentioned you didn't pay attention to other teams moves. You don't seem to give that any credit for losing, thats interesting. If you were in my league then you wouldn't notice when I change my rotation to line up pitchers that would have the best odds to beat you, so you wouldn't make a counter move to change lineups or defense. You just set your team and go, and then wonder why you lose on the home stretch after other teams have made adjustments.
But hey, keep whining, I love the good reading
:P
Oh by the way, you mentioned you dominated your division (by giving us about the last 20 games you played in division) and then go on to say you were 9-9 against the last place team in your division. Now that is really dominating.
You also mentioned you didn't pay attention to other teams moves. You don't seem to give that any credit for losing, thats interesting. If you were in my league then you wouldn't notice when I change my rotation to line up pitchers that would have the best odds to beat you, so you wouldn't make a counter move to change lineups or defense. You just set your team and go, and then wonder why you lose on the home stretch after other teams have made adjustments.
But hey, keep whining, I love the good reading
:P
- Phenomenal
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Urishade » Mon Jun 09, 2008 11:01 pm
After reading more of the negative respones to my post and hearing for the upteenth team that all my sample sizes are too small it occured to me that I just don't play the volume of teams that other owners do. I went into some recent leagues and clicked on the owner profiles of several guys with ratings over 1000 and found that they almost all have played more seasons in a particular year than I have played in my life. Overall I have only played 25 teams, which is a pittance compared to some of the owners in this community.
As such I am beginning to understand why people are so blase about bad luck and teams coming up short when everything seemed to be going thier way. Basically if a season doesn't work out there are 5-10 other ones going right now with more to follow. I tend to only play two seasons concurrently so the time invested vs. the outcome is very great for me and thus why I get so disturbed by some of these outcomes.
But I do find it fascinating how many people tell me off considering that this is supposed to be communal thing. Everyone is here because they like to play Strato but if you don't like to play as much other people do then those people will tell you to shut up and quit whining. In other words play more seasons and the bad ones won't hurt as much and/or the luck will even out. It is your fault for playing too few seasons and having so much time pass between final results.
It is like a little game unto itself for a lot of these owners. How big of a Strato nut can I be? A mini contest in a way to see who can shrug off the most terrible finishes, profess the most blind love to TSN & HAL, and prattle on about how the non-believers are the spawn of Satan and should be banished. So I do enjoy antagonizing the populous and it is not that I am without success in this game as I have never won fewer than 76 games while once winning 99. But people seem to dismiss my opinions because they run contrary to the standard ethos of the mighty Strato.
It is as if the very idea of me bringing in different ways of thinking about the game and how the results are determined is blasphamous. I get the feeling that a great many people of this board take enormous pleasure from putting down others and showing how strong and without fault they can be. So I do enjoy bringing happiness to so many people on this board who can sound off at me and go to bed each night knowing that they are a better than at least one person in life.
As such I am beginning to understand why people are so blase about bad luck and teams coming up short when everything seemed to be going thier way. Basically if a season doesn't work out there are 5-10 other ones going right now with more to follow. I tend to only play two seasons concurrently so the time invested vs. the outcome is very great for me and thus why I get so disturbed by some of these outcomes.
But I do find it fascinating how many people tell me off considering that this is supposed to be communal thing. Everyone is here because they like to play Strato but if you don't like to play as much other people do then those people will tell you to shut up and quit whining. In other words play more seasons and the bad ones won't hurt as much and/or the luck will even out. It is your fault for playing too few seasons and having so much time pass between final results.
It is like a little game unto itself for a lot of these owners. How big of a Strato nut can I be? A mini contest in a way to see who can shrug off the most terrible finishes, profess the most blind love to TSN & HAL, and prattle on about how the non-believers are the spawn of Satan and should be banished. So I do enjoy antagonizing the populous and it is not that I am without success in this game as I have never won fewer than 76 games while once winning 99. But people seem to dismiss my opinions because they run contrary to the standard ethos of the mighty Strato.
It is as if the very idea of me bringing in different ways of thinking about the game and how the results are determined is blasphamous. I get the feeling that a great many people of this board take enormous pleasure from putting down others and showing how strong and without fault they can be. So I do enjoy bringing happiness to so many people on this board who can sound off at me and go to bed each night knowing that they are a better than at least one person in life.
- Urishade
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by Free Radicals » Tue Jun 10, 2008 7:39 am
Uri said :
A mini contest in a way to see who can shrug off the most terrible finishes, profess the most blind love to TSN & HAL, and prattle on about how the non-believers are the spawn of Satan and should be banished.
Good to know your not one of the kool aid drinkers . :wink:
I love the game but don't like TSN but it's the only place you can play SOM online ,other than with the cd rom version.
223 teams : 39 playoffs 6 rings . I have seen many and I mean many late season collapses . It sucks for sure . If you keep plugging away at it though sooner or later ( probably later ) you get to the promised land ! Free at least , free at last , good god almighty free at last ! :D
A mini contest in a way to see who can shrug off the most terrible finishes, profess the most blind love to TSN & HAL, and prattle on about how the non-believers are the spawn of Satan and should be banished.
Good to know your not one of the kool aid drinkers . :wink:
I love the game but don't like TSN but it's the only place you can play SOM online ,other than with the cd rom version.
223 teams : 39 playoffs 6 rings . I have seen many and I mean many late season collapses . It sucks for sure . If you keep plugging away at it though sooner or later ( probably later ) you get to the promised land ! Free at least , free at last , good god almighty free at last ! :D
- Free Radicals
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
by CHARLESBELL » Tue Jun 10, 2008 9:31 am
[quote:2c47751c5d="urishade"]After reading more of the negative respones to my post and hearing for the upteenth team that all my sample sizes are too small it occured to me that I just don't play the volume of teams that other owners do. I went into some recent leagues and clicked on the owner profiles of several guys with ratings over 1000 and found that they almost all have played more seasons in a particular year than I have played in my life. Overall I have only played 25 teams, which is a pittance compared to some of the owners in this community.
As such I am beginning to understand why people are so blase about bad luck and teams coming up short when everything seemed to be going thier way. Basically if a season doesn't work out there are 5-10 other ones going right now with more to follow. I tend to only play two seasons concurrently so the time invested vs. the outcome is very great for me and thus why I get so disturbed by some of these outcomes.
But I do find it fascinating how many people tell me off considering that this is supposed to be communal thing. Everyone is here because they like to play Strato but if you don't like to play as much other people do then those people will tell you to shut up and quit whining. In other words play more seasons and the bad ones won't hurt as much and/or the luck will even out. It is your fault for playing too few seasons and having so much time pass between final results.
It is like a little game unto itself for a lot of these owners. How big of a Strato nut can I be? A mini contest in a way to see who can shrug off the most terrible finishes, profess the most blind love to TSN & HAL, and prattle on about how the non-believers are the spawn of Satan and should be banished. So I do enjoy antagonizing the populous and it is not that I am without success in this game as I have never won fewer than 76 games while once winning 99. But people seem to dismiss my opinions because they run contrary to the standard ethos of the mighty Strato.
It is as if the very idea of me bringing in different ways of thinking about the game and how the results are determined is blasphamous. I get the feeling that a great many people of this board take enormous pleasure from putting down others and showing how strong and without fault they can be. So I do enjoy bringing happiness to so many people on this board who can sound off at me and go to bed each night knowing that they are a better than at least one person in life.[/quote:2c47751c5d]
Maybe a different viewpoint would help.
I'm a player like you, Urishade. I play 2-3 teams max at a time, and a dozen or less each 200x season, depending on how much pain I want to inflict on myself in the Player's Championship. :-)
So each and every season gets a lot of my attention, and I cheer my team's successes and lament their failures every day.
Maybe there are owners who feel as you stated, who don't care enough about their teams to worry when one tanks unexpectedly. But I think they would be in the small minority. As a community I think the large majority of us care about our teams, whether we have just one or twenty. I also think that we share the frustration and pain of failed teams, both those who simply come up short and those who we had great expectations in that raise our hopes and then dash them in unexpected ways. Sharing those on these forums will generate sympathy and similar stories.
Where this divulges is that you seem to believe that a simulation game like Strat "must" always and perfectly mirror the stats on the card and that the law of probability and statistics doesn't apply. You've been given dozens of examples both in strat and in the real world of baseball where great teams collapse, bad teams (on paper) win, and crazy and unexpected things happen. But you claim there is something wrong with the game when this happens.
Strat is a simulation. I don't know if you play the CD-ROM game. Many strat gamers love to play simulated past seasons where they go so far as to ensure that not only is every roster and team schedule exactly as in real life, so are the lineups and the starting pitchers for every single game, mirroring to the maximum extent what really happened. Then they run the simulation. It's truly astonishing how close the numbers can come to what really happened. The simulation is really that good. HOWEVER, it is not and never can be a perfect simulation - because probability and statistics is about the law of averages, not the law of absolutes. Probability and statistics inherently tellls us that everything can - and will - happen, but over many, many, repetitions we can predict how often those things occur, knowing that the least often occurence will still happen sometimes.
An analogy would be the lottery. Lotteries make money because on average nearly everyone loses. But when we bet the lottery we are betting that the near impossible will happen, because we know that it that is does happen and must happen at least sometimes. From a purely statistical perspective strat is the same - we play because in general, taking into consideration every team that every player ever plays, the average of those would look very close to what we would expect. But on a day to day, team by team, season by season, basis - anything can happen. I love that about this game, and about statistics in general. There are certainly flaws in the game, but, having played literally tens of thousands of simulated seasons over the course of forty years playing this game, I have seen every situation you brought up dozens or hundreds of times. But the percentage of times that it happens is actually very small, we just remember them more clearly.
You've seen some tragic failures, and I'd bet some spectacular successes, but I'd also bet that most of your teams fell somewhere in between. We can influence the numbers with our choices. Once those choices are made and the simulation is run, though, we have to remember that, in the world of probability, everything that can happen, will happen.
As such I am beginning to understand why people are so blase about bad luck and teams coming up short when everything seemed to be going thier way. Basically if a season doesn't work out there are 5-10 other ones going right now with more to follow. I tend to only play two seasons concurrently so the time invested vs. the outcome is very great for me and thus why I get so disturbed by some of these outcomes.
But I do find it fascinating how many people tell me off considering that this is supposed to be communal thing. Everyone is here because they like to play Strato but if you don't like to play as much other people do then those people will tell you to shut up and quit whining. In other words play more seasons and the bad ones won't hurt as much and/or the luck will even out. It is your fault for playing too few seasons and having so much time pass between final results.
It is like a little game unto itself for a lot of these owners. How big of a Strato nut can I be? A mini contest in a way to see who can shrug off the most terrible finishes, profess the most blind love to TSN & HAL, and prattle on about how the non-believers are the spawn of Satan and should be banished. So I do enjoy antagonizing the populous and it is not that I am without success in this game as I have never won fewer than 76 games while once winning 99. But people seem to dismiss my opinions because they run contrary to the standard ethos of the mighty Strato.
It is as if the very idea of me bringing in different ways of thinking about the game and how the results are determined is blasphamous. I get the feeling that a great many people of this board take enormous pleasure from putting down others and showing how strong and without fault they can be. So I do enjoy bringing happiness to so many people on this board who can sound off at me and go to bed each night knowing that they are a better than at least one person in life.[/quote:2c47751c5d]
Maybe a different viewpoint would help.
I'm a player like you, Urishade. I play 2-3 teams max at a time, and a dozen or less each 200x season, depending on how much pain I want to inflict on myself in the Player's Championship. :-)
So each and every season gets a lot of my attention, and I cheer my team's successes and lament their failures every day.
Maybe there are owners who feel as you stated, who don't care enough about their teams to worry when one tanks unexpectedly. But I think they would be in the small minority. As a community I think the large majority of us care about our teams, whether we have just one or twenty. I also think that we share the frustration and pain of failed teams, both those who simply come up short and those who we had great expectations in that raise our hopes and then dash them in unexpected ways. Sharing those on these forums will generate sympathy and similar stories.
Where this divulges is that you seem to believe that a simulation game like Strat "must" always and perfectly mirror the stats on the card and that the law of probability and statistics doesn't apply. You've been given dozens of examples both in strat and in the real world of baseball where great teams collapse, bad teams (on paper) win, and crazy and unexpected things happen. But you claim there is something wrong with the game when this happens.
Strat is a simulation. I don't know if you play the CD-ROM game. Many strat gamers love to play simulated past seasons where they go so far as to ensure that not only is every roster and team schedule exactly as in real life, so are the lineups and the starting pitchers for every single game, mirroring to the maximum extent what really happened. Then they run the simulation. It's truly astonishing how close the numbers can come to what really happened. The simulation is really that good. HOWEVER, it is not and never can be a perfect simulation - because probability and statistics is about the law of averages, not the law of absolutes. Probability and statistics inherently tellls us that everything can - and will - happen, but over many, many, repetitions we can predict how often those things occur, knowing that the least often occurence will still happen sometimes.
An analogy would be the lottery. Lotteries make money because on average nearly everyone loses. But when we bet the lottery we are betting that the near impossible will happen, because we know that it that is does happen and must happen at least sometimes. From a purely statistical perspective strat is the same - we play because in general, taking into consideration every team that every player ever plays, the average of those would look very close to what we would expect. But on a day to day, team by team, season by season, basis - anything can happen. I love that about this game, and about statistics in general. There are certainly flaws in the game, but, having played literally tens of thousands of simulated seasons over the course of forty years playing this game, I have seen every situation you brought up dozens or hundreds of times. But the percentage of times that it happens is actually very small, we just remember them more clearly.
You've seen some tragic failures, and I'd bet some spectacular successes, but I'd also bet that most of your teams fell somewhere in between. We can influence the numbers with our choices. Once those choices are made and the simulation is run, though, we have to remember that, in the world of probability, everything that can happen, will happen.
- CHARLESBELL
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
HAL.....
by The Rivs » Wed Jun 11, 2008 12:00 pm
I send Hal a case of beer and a bottle of good hooch before every draft, and the begining of each play-off I've managed to make. :shock:
Still...he doesn't always get it. I've had HAL move Jimmie Foxx From 1B to catch late in games, when there is a perfectly fine catcher on my bench!?!?....HAL is mystical. Getting him to use a high priced SP/RP over a nickle RP in a tight situation is like trying to get a watermelon up a Gnats rear-end!
But some of the stuff that has been complained about as well as the possible parity point I think is off base...
First I'd say I understand the dynamic you are trying to point out but I would say that with injuries...you know what could happen... it's one of the few things spelled out pretty clearly. I've had Willie Stargell in ATG carry my team all year only to tear it down when he goes down for 15 games. Everyone has their stories. Secondly though, and mostly, sometimes it's really how the ball bounces, or the dice roll. Knowing that you could change your outcomes by monitoring your teams daily hitting dynamic, and adjusting it accordingly would change outcomes for any team....Use the Settings given to you. I mean it's relatively easy to get HAL to do something different, you just don't get to know until it happens....like the great game itself...there's no parity in that! Just random outcomes and probabilities against research, and hours... usually, of getting different source stats and making a choice to improve your team...The reason I stay with this site is that, while we may complain, I think, our ability to control the actual outcome for our team is more in our hands than anywhere else. My recent case in point is in 2007... my team, which looked great on paper...started 11-18. At the same time the ERA was okay and the hitting was adequate...I actually took part of an afternoon did a little work, made 2 SP changes, Closer Swap out...changed my DH and CF... Flip the line-up around....And PRESTO! I go 28-12 and am in first place! This is the game....just checkin' your teams is not gonna cut it...people pay hard cash to compete here! Which I have heard they feed to HAL in big bushell baskets. When the dice ain't rollin' your way you gotta shake it up...watch the wire....One of the guys I got was Hudson in 2007...he was 0-5 when dropped....He's 6-0 for me! I thought he was in a bad park for his card. Y'know...Ya gotta manage! Anyway that's my story....Oh and I had a team last week 98 wins...nearest team in the league had 86 wins...I took the first two games of the Semis and then he took three from me! :shock: I got letters from the other managers in the league saying they hate it when HAL does that stuff...but they all had a story lie ours....It does happen. And it may seem to happen more here than in real life...but guess what, I've managed some 50-odd teams...what real manager has done that? Keep the size of the sample in mind when you freak out....and have a frosty, or a smoke on me. :wink:
Still...he doesn't always get it. I've had HAL move Jimmie Foxx From 1B to catch late in games, when there is a perfectly fine catcher on my bench!?!?....HAL is mystical. Getting him to use a high priced SP/RP over a nickle RP in a tight situation is like trying to get a watermelon up a Gnats rear-end!
But some of the stuff that has been complained about as well as the possible parity point I think is off base...
First I'd say I understand the dynamic you are trying to point out but I would say that with injuries...you know what could happen... it's one of the few things spelled out pretty clearly. I've had Willie Stargell in ATG carry my team all year only to tear it down when he goes down for 15 games. Everyone has their stories. Secondly though, and mostly, sometimes it's really how the ball bounces, or the dice roll. Knowing that you could change your outcomes by monitoring your teams daily hitting dynamic, and adjusting it accordingly would change outcomes for any team....Use the Settings given to you. I mean it's relatively easy to get HAL to do something different, you just don't get to know until it happens....like the great game itself...there's no parity in that! Just random outcomes and probabilities against research, and hours... usually, of getting different source stats and making a choice to improve your team...The reason I stay with this site is that, while we may complain, I think, our ability to control the actual outcome for our team is more in our hands than anywhere else. My recent case in point is in 2007... my team, which looked great on paper...started 11-18. At the same time the ERA was okay and the hitting was adequate...I actually took part of an afternoon did a little work, made 2 SP changes, Closer Swap out...changed my DH and CF... Flip the line-up around....And PRESTO! I go 28-12 and am in first place! This is the game....just checkin' your teams is not gonna cut it...people pay hard cash to compete here! Which I have heard they feed to HAL in big bushell baskets. When the dice ain't rollin' your way you gotta shake it up...watch the wire....One of the guys I got was Hudson in 2007...he was 0-5 when dropped....He's 6-0 for me! I thought he was in a bad park for his card. Y'know...Ya gotta manage! Anyway that's my story....Oh and I had a team last week 98 wins...nearest team in the league had 86 wins...I took the first two games of the Semis and then he took three from me! :shock: I got letters from the other managers in the league saying they hate it when HAL does that stuff...but they all had a story lie ours....It does happen. And it may seem to happen more here than in real life...but guess what, I've managed some 50-odd teams...what real manager has done that? Keep the size of the sample in mind when you freak out....and have a frosty, or a smoke on me. :wink:
- The Rivs
- Posts: 55
- Joined: Tue Jul 03, 2012 2:34 pm
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