Strategy I STILL can't figure out! EXPERTS, please chime in!

[jeffdoh]

I'm now ranked 3-star "Junior College Batting Champ" player and there's STILL things I have yet to figure out definitely about this great game of ours. I'm curious to hear if you've discovered the answers and how you "proved" it to yourself by playing on here:

1. Do stolen bases help a team's offense? I've been debating this with myself forever and I'm still undecided. I know that Bill James once sade that to break-even, a base-stealer would need to be successful at least 2/3 of the time and I often wonder whether a guy who goes 60 SB and 20 CS actually does help his team in strat.

2. What's the better strategy-- 4 or 5-man rotation? Or, does it ever make sense to go with one or two SP* and then 3 other guys?

3. Does it EVER make sense to click "steal more"? I would think that all this means is that a basestealer will take more risks and lower his SB% to below the 2/3 succes break-even rate. What'd your experience?

4. Can you win with a power-hitting team in an extreme SP ballpark? I would think that despite that no one does it that this is very possibie because neither team playing will hit a ton of HRs so maybe the team with a ton of HR guys will have the edge by hitting on the non-ballpark effect HR rolls.

5. Does anyone have any clue how strat's home field advantage works?it's clearly a VERY real thing, but how is it implemented? no one seems to know.

6. can you win with a season-long "4" at ss?has anyone tried this?

7. Which teams tend to do better-- the team with the great bullpen or the team with the better SP.

8. How many GOOD RPs is ideal? it seems a waste to spend alot of money on a 4th great RP, as they wont picth much....or will they? no telling when hal will decide to use your 4th RP more than your 2nd in a season.

9. Does batting order matter at all?

10. on that note, does it ever make sense to lead off a guy like Ruth? more ABs--maybe 50-60 a season, high OBP, maybe contribute to knocking out a SP early with a HR, etc.....

I have more, but let's leave it at these 10 thoughts for now. :-)

Please do chime in!!!!

Jeff

[Palmtana]

[quote:38c4dd8585]6. can you win with a season-long "4" at ss?has anyone tried this? [/quote:38c4dd8585]

I never would have believed it, but it can happen. I just lost a finals in the current 2007 game to a team that had Hanley Ramirez (4e27) kicking the ball around all season long.

[Mean Dean]

[quote:069db251fd]Do stolen bases help a team's offense? I've been debating this with myself forever and I'm still undecided. I know that Bill James once sade that to break-even, a base-stealer would need to be successful at least 2/3 of the time and I often wonder whether a guy who goes 60 SB and 20 CS actually does help his team in strat.[/quote:069db251fd]SOM is no different than real baseball in this respect, as James described. (This isn't to say that the break-even chance is the same regardless of the hitter at the plate, pitcher, ballpark, etc. Obviously, it isn't. But in general -- and especially since you can't really micromanage it in the TSN game anyway -- 65-70% is the best guess.)

[quote:069db251fd]What's the better strategy-- 4 or 5-man rotation? Or, does it ever make sense to go with one or two SP* and then 3 other guys?[/quote:069db251fd]I see this as mostly a draft strategy thing, rather than an in-game strategy thing. Ideally, you would have four starters, because it's easier to find four than five, and it helps in the playoffs. However, if everyone is putting all the good SP* very high on their draft lists -- and it does seem like it usually is that way -- then, rather than waste a bunch of draft picks and get guys you don't want, it makes more sense to go for the non-* guys whom no one is attempting to draft. You have two options at that point. If you can afford to spend more, you can get five starters who are all decent or better, and just go 1 through 5 the same way you'd go 1 through 4 in a four-man. If you want to spend less (and get less performance -- but perhaps the tradeoff is worth it), you can rely on "matchup" starters who are very unbalanced, to be used only against the specific teams whose weaknesses match their strength. Circling back to your earlier question, it is difficult to pull off the "matchup starter" strategy without at least one SP*; I mean, you'd have to carry like nine starters otherwise. The SP*, as mentioned, can also help in the playoffs (at least if he is really good, anyway), since he can start twice in the first round.

[quote:069db251fd]Does it EVER make sense to click "steal more"? I would think that all this means is that a basestealer will take more risks and lower his SB% to below the 2/3 succes break-even rate. What'd your experience?[/quote:069db251fd]I believe what you're referring to is the team strategy setting, not the individual settings. Thus, you should set the team to conservative, and the individual base stealers to steal more. I am not totally sure of this, but I'm pretty sure.

[quote:069db251fd]Can you win with a power-hitting team in an extreme SP ballpark? I would think that despite that no one does it that this is very possibie because neither team playing will hit a ton of HRs so maybe the team with a ton of HR guys will have the edge by hitting on the non-ballpark effect HR rolls.[/quote:069db251fd]Sure, if you're in a pitcher's park and you have "pure" homers, while your opponent is dependent on ballpark homers that he's not going to be getting, you've got the advantage there. The players who can hit the ball out of Yellowstone Park will cost more money, obviously.

[quote:069db251fd]Does anyone have any clue how strat's home field advantage works?it's clearly a VERY real thing, but how is it implemented? no one seems to know.[/quote:069db251fd]I dunno the exact mechanics of it, and they probably don't matter anyway... it adds up to about 10 points of batting average advantage.

[quote:069db251fd]can you win with a season-long "4" at ss?[/quote:069db251fd]Sure. Everyone's value is hitting plus fielding. If you compare a guy like Hanley to a top defensive SS, Hanley will probably start off about 40 runs behind, due to the defense. If Hanley is more than 40 runs (or whatever it is) better than that guy on offense, and if he costs the same, then he's better.

[quote:069db251fd]Which teams tend to do better-- the team with the great bullpen or the team with the better SP.[/quote:069db251fd]Either one is fine.

[quote:069db251fd]How many GOOD RPs is ideal? it seems a waste to spend alot of money on a 4th great RP, as they wont picth much....or will they? no telling when hal will decide to use your 4th RP more than your 2nd in a season.[/quote:069db251fd]Well, obviously your settings govern who pitches to an extent, and I would also point out that fatigue ratings are a big factor -- it is not usually smart to have your worst relievers have your highest fatigue ratings, or vice versa. I think you are best off with three good relievers plus the closer. That of course will cost you a lot of money, so it's not for everyone. (One way to make it more affordable is to not get a great closer! Just get someone who is cheap and can get both sides out equally mediocre-ly, and set him not to come in before 8th/max 1-2 IP/closer maximize. This is basically what the current Indians do with Betancourt, Perez, and Borowski.) If you don't wanna splurge on three, I'd at least have two.

[quote:069db251fd]Does batting order matter at all?[/quote:069db251fd]It does in the sense that picking names out of a hat would probably be a bad idea, and that even one win can make a difference in a pennant race. But is there a huge difference between two reasonable batting orders? No.

[quote:069db251fd]on that note, does it ever make sense to lead off a guy like Ruth? more ABs--maybe 50-60 a season, high OBP, maybe contribute to knocking out a SP early with a HR, etc..... [/quote:069db251fd]You'd have to have a stacked team to benefit by hitting Ruth leadoff IMHO, but, it's possible. I've hit Bonds 2nd in his Ruthian years, and that only requires two other good hitters -- a leadoff and a #3 -- to work really well.

[LANCEBOUSLEY]

Quote:
Does batting order matter at all?
It does in the sense that picking names out of a hat would probably be a bad idea, and that even one win can make a difference in a pennant race. But is there a huge difference between two reasonable batting orders? No.

there is not that big a difference. baseball prospectus used the som engine to test this and found the difference between worst and best lineup to be around 10 runs per season. (i think it was best to worst). they assume 10 runs = i win. so in a penant race it can make a difference but to say it is huge nope.

[Phenomenal]

Regarding Batting Order....


I would be curious to know the parameters of the baseball prospectus tests using the SOM engine because I think a batting order, and more importantly the managerial settings both player specific and universal ar important. How can the SOM engine accurately conclude run differential over a season when there isn't a human manager making adjustments to lineups based on opposing pitcher, ballpark etc. Also, human managers may adjust universal settings for Steal, bunting, H&R, etc. based on the opposing team and pitchers.

Then there is the variable of lineups with players who may be individually adjusted for bunting, stealing, Hit and run etc. based on matchups throughout the season. When individual settings are adjusted that would affect where they bat in the order, in front of and behind certain players.

So I guess I don't really buy into any data which can categorial claim batting lineups don't matter because there are way too many variables.

Just my humble opinion.

[STEVEPONEDAL]

I am no expert but, I like 3 *SP and then 2 non-*SP.

In the final 2 weeks of the seaon I like to be able to play off my opponents hitting weakness versus LHP or RHPs.

[RICHARDMILTER]

I have read that several players say they do not draft for stolen bases, and that TSN might not even consider them(stolen bases) when setting players salaries. If this is the case this makes it all the more reason to draft guys who can steal bases, because if you are not paying extra for it, you are getting the speed for free. I do not believe this is the case. Would Tony Gwynn really be about 8.25 million(in the 1986 game) if he was not capable of stealing 40 bases or more? Or in other words I think if you took two players with almost identical stats and one was a AA and one was a D the player with the AA steal rating would cost more money. If I am wrong on this ,PLEASE LET ME KNOW!
Also , I am pretty sure they price players for how many injury chances are on their cards. Does anyone have any thoughts on this?

[LMBombers]

TSN takes everything on a player card into account when determining player salaries. That includes speed, base stealing, BA, HR, defense, injuries, etc, etc. They don't value everything equally however. Just because Vince Coleman is a AAA base stealer in the 1986 game it doesn't mean that he will be priced the same as the best HR hitter. The trick is to figure out who the best value players are for your park or type of team you want to create. If you play in a HR park for example you wouldn't want a bunch of players that are great base stealers since a part of their salary would come from base stealing which is almost useless to your type of team.

Try to pick players who's attributes totally, or almost totally, contribute towards your team strategy and you won't be giving away value.

[RICHARDMILTER]

What he said!