How many 15-game injury risks are too many?

How many 15-game injury risks are too many?

Postby bones130000 » Thu Feb 02, 2006 3:12 pm

If I counted right I've got 5 who could go down for up to 15 games. I like my line-up, when healthy, but who knows how often it will be intact. I'm thinking something along the lines of

Selkirk
J. Robinson
Snider
Valentine
Cochrane
Gordon
Peckinpaugh
Pendleton

Switch Peck and Pendleton against lefties, maybe Jackie and Selkirk too. I've got 2 mil to play with but am hoping to use that to upgrade one of my starters, probably Key.

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=105141
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Postby MICHAELTARBELL » Thu Feb 02, 2006 3:49 pm

Well, your catcher is almost always a given 15 gamer...aside from that, i try not to carry more than 2 15 game types, or 3 all together counting pitchers. Just to costly IMO...of course, your quality of draft may force you to do otherwise, but that is my rule of thumb... :wink:
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Postby TomP » Thu Feb 02, 2006 6:46 pm

Just to offer another opinion, there are a couple odd balls among our group (Munich Man and I come to mind) that don't pay much attention to the injury factor. Assuming 700 plate appearances (and assuming I did the math correctly), a 15 injury occurs only 16% of the time for players with an injury roll of 2 or 12. Most catchers double those odds, of course.
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Postby Moriarity » Thu Feb 02, 2006 7:10 pm

I used to be very conscious of having too many potential 15 gamers but I'm not so much anymore. I lost Chance and Cochrane in a finals series which I lost, but they did help get me there. It's a gamble, but how can you pass on players like Cuyler, Joe Jackson, Chance, etc etc. My .02. :?
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Postby GREGGZILIANI » Thu Feb 02, 2006 9:33 pm

I totally agree with that logic. I think the key with 15 gamers is having a solid core of backups. Everyone has their own favorites, so I wont mention them all, but I wouldnt be afraid. One of the most productive bargains in the game *cough* Clipper *cough* is a 15-gamer but who cares when he is knocking in 140 a season.
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Postby MICHAELTARBELL » Fri Feb 03, 2006 11:13 am

I agree there are guys who are worth the risk (Wagner also comes to mind), but i would not carry more than 2-3 of these types. Yes, quality backups are good, but will not replace the quality of the guy that is injured, and sometimes 2 or 3 losses make all the difference.
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Postby thetallguy747 » Fri Feb 03, 2006 1:01 pm

While I seldom carry more than 2-3 of these guys on a roster, the injury risk doesn't mean that much to me. First, enough managers seem to be averse to these riskier plays that it makes it easier for me to draft them. I can't think of one of these players I would typically build a team around; but there are some great role playing guys in this group: Chance, Alou, Cuyler, Valentine, Shoeless Joe come immediately to mind. IMHO, if you build your team well, losing one starter to injury will not sink the ship.

Oh, and I'm starting to like Ray Chapman more too.
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Postby MICHAELTARBELL » Fri Feb 03, 2006 1:17 pm

Agree, but 4 or 5 could.... :)
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Postby OdysseyTigger » Fri Feb 03, 2006 3:34 pm

It appears I typically have 4-7 of these players starting for me.

Therefore, I suggest you avoid them at all costs!
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Postby ADRIANGABRIEL » Fri Feb 03, 2006 4:44 pm

Five is about standard for me. I don't give it too much thought. I've seen guys with 600+ PA get injured 9 times in a season. I had a season where Honus Wagner played 160 games.

For the guys I use a lot, Mickey Cochrane and Honus Wagner average about 620 plate appearances a season. Harry Steinfeldt averages about 640 and Ellis Valentine averages over 660.
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