Poll: Guess the regular season team win record.

[bjs73]

Team pitching stats:

IP H ER BB K ERA WHIP
1469.0 1477 679 528 926 4.16 1.37


Team Hitting stats:

AB R 2B HR RBI BB SB E BA SLG OBP
5648 855 262 201 796 613 166 99 .269 .432 .342

No Hitter had more than 93 RBI.
But 3 hitters broke 90 RBI.
No Hitter had more than 31 HR's.
But 4 hitters had more than 20 HR's.

Best SP had a 3.46 ERA with a 1.18 WHIP.
Worst SP had a 5.11 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP.

OK. Based on this information let's see what the polls bring for record expectations. I'll bring an answer to this on Saturday. Leave comments/questions if you like. Let's see how close we come to hitting it on the head based on these stats.

[Sykes25]

I say 92 wins. Good defense, pretty reasonable slugging, but likely under league average with so few HR. My bet is on a Fenway squad. Wild Card team. Nice OBP.

[Jablowmi]

The numbers are solid and point to the 85-90 range, but I'm certain were in for a shock, so I'll guess 72.

Under the "expected wins" formula, you're looking at a .557 winning %, which results in 90 wins. However, you've only provided earned runs, so I suspect the % will go down, perhaps significantly.

Here's the calculation: runs scored (855) x 1.83/runs scored (855) + runs allowed (679, but earned runs only) = 1565/1565 + 1243 = 1565/2808 = .557 = 90 wins.

[bjs73]

[quote:c54747033b]Here's the calculation: runs scored (855) x 1.83/runs scored (855) + runs allowed (679, but earned runs only) = 1565/1565 + 1243 = 1565/2808 = .557 = 90 wins.[/quote:c54747033b]

I was hoping someone would crunch some numbers like this. Thanks for providing this. When I get home I'll provide Runs instead of ER and maybe we can recalculate?

[Minoso Express]

I didn't crunch numbers and am impressed by those who did. But I have looked over a whole bunch of stats from other teams, and based on that, I figure this team won 82 games.

[bjs73]

Jablowmi: Would you mind running the numbers again using 746 Runs allowed?

I'd do it myself but I don't understand the formula that you've got. :oops:

Is that from Baseball Prospectus?

[Jablowmi]

here you go ... 1565/2930 = .534 x 162 = 86.5 wins

[Jablowmi]

I don't know if it came from BB Prospectus, although it's probably there. I'm pretty certain it's Bill James' Expected Wins Formula.

[bjs73]

[quote:d229b30894]I didn't crunch numbers and am impressed by those who did. But I have looked over a whole bunch of stats from other teams, and based on that, I figure this team won 82 games.[/quote:d229b30894]

Based on my experience, I'd have pegged this team as a .500 team. Maybe with some superb performances from a couple of individuals, maybe it could achieve 88-92 wins.

Good to see you again! Say, when are we going to start that NO DH league? Anytime soon? :D

[bjs73]

I just want to give it a chance for the poll to run a little longer to see what others think as well.

Thanks to everyone who put in their 2 cents on the poll so far.