The Secret Formula 2008

[thisisray]

I have used Peavy a few times and this is his best season I have had from him:

http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/stratomatic/team/team_other.html?user_id=110913

[J-Pav]

[quote:9894e91caa="Aray0113"]I'd like to hear your opinion about the clutch rating, and if it affects your lineup placement a lot, somewhat, or rarely.

More specifically, traditionally I bat my best + clutch player fifth ... but what if you bat him fourth, or sixth? Is there any relative difference in the three spots?[/quote:9894e91caa]

I bat my clutch hitter fifth if he is a good fifth place batter, i.e., Loney yes, McDonald no.

You'd have to dig thru the threads, but in there somewhere I think [b:9894e91caa]DeanTSC[/b:9894e91caa] concluded that clutch was of such little impact that it is virtually irrelevant. I agree.

As an aside, my best teams of years gone by usually had none to very negative clutch, likely because at the time I didn't know what the $ sign meant! It's like the great putters who suddenly can no longer sink a four-footer. They swear they putted better when they were 11 years old and just looked at the hole and putted. For me, it's the same thing - I'm trying to unlearn caring about it.

[quote:9894e91caa="Aray0113"]Also, your three best sluggers (OB+TB): bat them 3-4-5 or 4-5-6 in the lineup?

Thanks again![/quote:9894e91caa]

The analyzer I listed in the thread has a unique version of the number three hitter. They believe the 3 hole is for the guy who does not fit well anywhere else in the line-up. He's not a basestealer, not a slugger, not high OBP, etc. It's something like spreading out your not so great hitters.

Other people believe the 3 hitter is your second-best big banger. I leave it for you to decide.

[J-Pav]

[b:7c48fe9fe8]C2:[/b:7c48fe9fe8]

I half remember listing out the Tour Championship salaries when you were the champ [b:7c48fe9fe8]CHAMP[/b:7c48fe9fe8] ( :D )! Didn't you go like six high-dollar big bangers in a hitters park? You were one of the low dollar pitching salary guys back then. YOU were the one throwing Davis against Ordonez!

So I'm surprised you're fooling around with Peavy. My opinion, is that the high dollar * SPs are overpriced. Having said that, I have a team where Peavy is truly carrying me. I go back and forth - Peavy or Davis, Davis or Peavy? It's weird, but it seems for me that when I mix up the salaries ($9, $5, $4, $2) my team does better. I think that if I get four Davis's, I'll rule, only to discover that I should've spent $20 mil on starting pitching.

With regard to salary balance and leaving salary on the bench, I had a nine $5-6 per guy offense once this year that did very well. [b:7c48fe9fe8]PBTR[/b:7c48fe9fe8] successfully did the same experiment this year. I think there's more to be written about that particular strategery. Maybe down the road, if I can't Doug to jump in here and join us...

[cummings2]

:lol:

Yep... I should go back to my old ways, they seemed to work better.

The link to the team you mentioned A.K.A [i:ddfa910dc7]Da Champs[/i:ddfa910dc7]:

[url=http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/2006/team/team_other.html?user_id=14490] One for the SoutwestPsychic (Robvoz), Bigmahon and Stoney18 -team[/url]

As always, higher average (even at the expense of natural OBP "walkers") SLG on 3 points. Strong D... and cheapie SPs with good value. 1 strong closer and 1 strong setup with an army or specialists.

...oh yeah, and the C2 trademark: High GbA pitchers, low GbA hitters with steal more to force defenses into a defensive downgrade :wink:

hmm... sounds like a plan.

even if its slightly on the outskirts of the Secret Formula (tm)

C2

[FRANKMANSUETO]

J-Pav, GREAT stuff and indeed Hal HATES me. That run differential went up and am still on the outside looking in for a playoff spot. Just look at my team in x-innings and 1 run games compared to other teams. Futile is an understatement. Arrrrrrrrrrrrrgh!!!! :evil:

[Jerlins]

As always, interesting reading and great advice from one of the top gurus in the game. Good stuff!

[Jake Squid]

[quote:49cd8d6d06]What I was trying to say, was that one run games (and maybe even add in extra-inning games) are simply a good proxy for the luck factor in a season.[/quote:49cd8d6d06]

I used to agree with this, but I'm finding that I consistently have the best record in one run games in my leagues. Small sample size, sure, but it just keeps happening. I'll have to experiment with my bullpen construction a bit more to see if I do, in fact, have something. If this keeps up for me next year, I'll post on how I build bullpens. If it doesn't continue, you'll hear no disagreement from me in the future.

One thing that I would like to add that I've found that immensely improves my team's performance is adjusting the batting order by park. If you do a little bit of card analysis, spreadsheet style, you'll be able to see why this is important.

Thanks for another great post.

[J-Pav]

[b:4407a8e593]Jake[/b:4407a8e593]:

It sounds like you're describing something [b:4407a8e593]Dean[/b:4407a8e593] and I went around with last year. I think you're implying that you are doing well in one run games because of something you're "doing" with your bullpen. I would argue that there's nothing you can do, you just happen to be further out on the right tail of a lucky distribution.

To prove what you're saying, you can't look at your record in hindsight. You would have to say "Here is how you build a team (or bullpen) that wins one run games" and then run enough seasons to make it statistically significant. The research I have read (Bill James, et al) claims that there is NOTHING you can proactively control to win more close games. In [i:4407a8e593]hindsight[/i:4407a8e593], it sometimes looks like bullpen (or base running, or small ball, or something else) but in the end, it is coin tosses (statistically speaking).

For every team that wins more one run games than should be their fair share, there's another (like [b:4407a8e593]Frank[/b:4407a8e593]) who is balancing out the other tail of the distribution.

The batting order thing I agree with somewhat. A Thames or Clark can bat in a higher part of the order in Citizen's Bank. To a balanced team, however, the difference isn't that big a deal. To a heavy hitters team or a heavy small ball team, platooning for ballpark can be useful sometimes I guess, although I've never done it myself.

[Jake Squid]

[quote:85dee7624d]You would have to say "Here is how you build a team (or bullpen) that wins one run games" and then run enough seasons to make it statistically significant.[/quote:85dee7624d]

I agree with this 100%, which is why I won't say that there is a strategy for winning one run games at this time. I was just voicing my newfound ambivalence over whether or not there is anything you can do in Strat to influence it. Over the course of next year, I'll have time to experiment w/ bullpen building & settings to either keep open the option or to disprove it to myself. While I agree that in real-life baseball that one run game W/L is largely luck, I don't know if that holds for Strat.

As to card analysis for lineups by ballpark, it's not even a matter of platooning. It's simply a matter of batting order based on OB chances and HR chances. There are some parks that make your default order a lot less effective than you might think. I've definitely seen improvement in team performance since I started doing serious analysis by ballpark.