by cummings2 » Thu Feb 16, 2006 3:30 pm
I don't know guys...I think it's those loaded margaritas over in Cha Cha Land :D
I've been thinking sme about the question of the inconsistency of teams for some time...not really twinsting my 2 remaning brain cells on the thought but every now and then I think of that...I had a team once, in Shea, loaded with power, it was my offensive juggernaut-of-a-team. Solid pen...but the team was highly inefective and [u:83abb56b24][b:83abb56b24][i:83abb56b24]most[/i:83abb56b24][/b:83abb56b24][/u:83abb56b24] annoying was the constant inconsistency, some night I'd sweep three games with scores similar to the spanking Charlie gave me last night (10-0 and the likes :mrgreen: )
Anyhoo the team would then loose3 games by 1 run, then win the close ones but get blown out then no offense, then no pitching...
So these are some thoughts on the subject:
Keep in mind that I'm not a heavy duty math guy like Maligned or Luckyman... which by the wayyyy, (echoes of Maligned-gate) you know that I STILL haven't seen maligned and luckyman in the forums at the same time :?: I tell you if there's a conspiracy look in your back yard mhmmmm
[u:83abb56b24][b:83abb56b24]The constantly inconsistent team[/b:83abb56b24][/u:83abb56b24]
For a team to be contantly inconsistent the main variables that affect the outcome of the game have to be fairly even close to or at 50-50. Those variables such as defense and BP effects are the "inexplainable" reason why a team is streaky, it has to be. I have personally argued before that there has to be some sort of "streak" pattern programed into HAL, how else can you explain Jolbert Cabrera giving me a FT entire season in Angels stadium hitting over .300 and an OB of around .340 -Let me check the actual numbers... OK here we go: Jolbert Cabrera AVG: .310, OBP: .359. I am sure you all have the same super seasons and the equally the same nasty off seasons. I am of the the idea that the straks are taken into account and that they do alter in some way the performance of the player. I can not explain some of the miracle runs or nose dives any other way, the way I see it the "streak" factor would alter the performance very slightly in either a positive or negative way, therefore good cards will have a chance of constinuing that good trend or snapping out of it more easily. Conversely the bad card that has had a few lucky rolls is unlikely to be able to continue the streak but while it's active it reaps the benefit.
I wouldn't mind if such a thing were to be programmed into HAL, I kinda like it but...going back to the problem of Inconsistency. If a team is in a neutral stadium like the Slugs in Skydome their offensive production is bound to be inconsistent, it HAS to be for the very reason that all BP SI and BP HRs coming off pitchers and hitters cards have only a 50-50 chance (or in Skydome 55-45 / 60-40) Think about it if you follow through a process of deduction you'll arrive to the BP effects.
Now, that leads us to the point that fine if tyhe offense struggles why the pitching: for the very same reason and two fold:
If it affects your hitters it will affect their hitters too, at least in petco I know I ain't hitting it but you ain't either, but in a 50-50 park, who knows, we might both get two BPHR rolls: you get two low single digit rolls and I get two mid 10's, result is you win 2-0...it's literally a flip of the coin. If this has some validity to it I think one of the cruelest things we can advise a rookie is to go to a neutral park while getting their feet wet...they'll flip (just ask Tyber :mrgreen: )
Now the other factor is defense. In my very limited experience, if you have a 3 up the middle (either SS or 2B) you pitching will be inconsistent, or a 2e14 or higher too.
If you have a 3 in the OF with an e rating 7 or higher your pitching will be inconsistent.
If you have corner infielders with an e rating 25 or higher your pitching will be inconsistent.
The problem with these guess-timate marks I've set more myself is that they make the pitching horribly inconsistant [u:83abb56b24][b:83abb56b24]but you don't trace the problem to them, they give the impression that the pitching sucks[/b:83abb56b24][/u:83abb56b24]
An OF with a 4e10 rating will always be bad therefore the team becomes consistantly bad, what I have been trying to trace is the problem of inconsistency...but anyway I have been ranting for a while, I am sure you'll all reach this part of the thread and "Say oooh boy here he goes again" :roll: :roll:
I guess I'll write about this in the strategy forum but since Ty brought this up recently I thought of sharing some thoughts with you.