Something wrong with this picture: 16 HR from E. Collins

[Valen]

[quote:edc87555d3]I don't think this case is "bogus". Your taking a player that played in the deadball era [/quote:edc87555d3]
So every deadball player should hit 20+ HR just because...
I can't buy it. I might if this were a pure hitters theme league where everyone had to pick a HR park. But actually not even then. I just cannot see how you can project a guy who never went below 100 AB per HR in his life and say he would hit 20 regardless of the park.

I think Novie hit it on the head. The power N rating is handed out way too liberally.

[quote:edc87555d3]But we will all take mays hitting 78-90 hrs in a hr park as ok[/quote:edc87555d3]
I think some of these results are unrealistic. But not on the same scale. Mays going from 49 to 90 is something like a 60% increase. Collins going from 4 to the 20 he is on pace for is a 500% increase. Let that sink in, a 500% increase. So to be comparable Mays would have to be hitting 250 and Ruth 300. If I saw that I definitely would be calling it bogus.

Now don't get me wrong I will take that kind of increased production on my team in a heartbeat. But evaluating as a simulation it is poor.

[durantjerry]

I disagree. The cards are made so the player can duplicate his stats in that given year in the environment in which he played. To hit six Hr's in 1919, I would think Collins might need "N" power. That is why the "N" power rating is handed out liberally IMO, because it has to be for some deadball era players to achieve even their modest HR totals. "N" power probably isn't worth too much when playing in Forbes Field facing the likes of Babe Adams, etc. When you transfer that to Yankee stadium and get to hit against Dazzy Vance, it takes on a whole new dimension.

[Maxie Minoso]

I think we're missing something.

Since Eddie has a ballpark HR chance (40%) on a 2/12 roll and a 5% chance on a 7 roll then it would not be foolish to think that the majority of his dingers in those 15+ HR seasons are coming from the pitcher's card.

Alas, too bad we have no way of knowing for sure.... here.

Maxie

[dwightskino211]

Mays going to 90 is an 80% increase. I meant we wouldn't give it a second thought, it is what we planned for by putting him in a hr park. we wouldn't think of it as too much overproduction. Candlestick is hr 2-2, I think, so a hr 20-20 park is at least 90% better for him for homers. I get 12-13 hrs from Peckinpaugh sometimes in hr 20-20 parks. I'm amazed he hits that many off of the pitchers card. Collins hitting 20 is wild, probably several hr parks in the league or division. Possibly many pitchers w/ BP hrs on their card too. As my brother used to say after he would beat me on a Hr 1-2 Flyball 3-20, all the time, "If it's on the card, someone will roll it!!!" So if Collins has a N rating, he's going to hit em out...

[MATTSCHMIDT]

Regarding Cravath, Bill James pointed out that Gavy did not hit a single HR away from the Baker Bowl in 1915. So no, he should not have more HR chances on his card.

That being said, check out these numbers Gavy just put up for me as a leadoff man on a Huntington squad:

Cravath, G. R RF 4(-3)e15 662 156 41 35 95 98 12 21 .310 .551 .400

He used to get used often in ATG1, don't see him used much in ATG2...

[novie]

Maxie... that was my point in regards to the N rating... those HR's came almost entirely off pitchers cards. Perhaps Collins chances of homering should be slightly better on his card in return for a W rating... he would be much more likely to hit 5-10 HR's and less likely to pound out 20.

[Valen]

Exactly what Novie said. His card should reflect the hitter he was and be able to deliver him the 4 HR he should hit. But the N allows him to be much more of a HR hitter than he really was. He was a singles hitter and not a power hitter. Be realistic, he only hit 19 doubles so it is not like he was slugging the ball and getting robbed by a big ballpark that limited his HR production. That makes the pitcher park to hitter park argument a weak one. And being a singles hitter he would not have hit HRs in volume whether he was facing Alexander or Vance or for that matter Blyleven.

[labratory]

I once had Larry Gardner hit 11 in a season in Griffith. He's W from both sides, so he got no help from the pitcher's card. He was seen hanging around with the guys from BALCO in spring training, though.
[url]http://fantasygames.sportingnews.com/baseball/stratomatic/atg2/team/team_other.html?user_id=38246[/url]