by ArrylT » Tue Apr 18, 2006 3:43 pm
Cota has 9.8 Natural HR vs. RHP, and 6 vs. LHP to go along with his 8 BP HR on either side. So basically he has 29.4 HR Chances out of 216 when playing at COORS (17 BP HR Rating vs. RH), which means he will hit a HR 13% of the time off of his card.
My divisions lowest BP HR rating vs. RH was 9, which pretty much meant Cota was going to get a HR off of his BP HR 50+ of the time, and one of the parks in my division was a Wrigley which meant 93 games of 17 BP HR rating. Not sure what vol fan was thinking, but having Schilling in Wrigley with a BP HR roll on a 7 probably wasnt a good idea (he led the league in HR Allowed).
Toss in 4 visits by John Patterson to Coors (7.75 Natural HR + 8 BP HR = 15.75 HR chances vs RHH), and the fact that Cota got a lot more AB vs. LHP than I originally planned to give him, and a little luck with the die rolls, and you get 57 HR (or 1 HR per 12 AB)! :shock: