Draft advice

[AdamKatz]

Is there a site out there that gives advice on where to rank players in a draft? I am playing for the 2nd time (the first time was 2 years ago) and got completely owned in the draft. I got 5 non .75 guys (although I am only 2nd in the waiver line). I am not sure is this is a weird draft or not (the waiver line includes Winfield, Mattingly, Sandberg, Ripken, Lynn and more-it is better than my team).

One question: I went for Clemens and got Ryan - is it worth keeping him and going for a 5-man rotation?

[Jablowmi]

Hey, I'm in that league. I don't think it was a particularly strange draft - there are often some great players (particularly hitters) remaining. I think the general wisdom re: Ryan is that he is too expensive for a non-* SP.

As for draft strategy, you should search around the old site. Although there are not many willing to give up their draft strategies, you can often find people's top 5 list (particularly in the "advanced" leagues). These may provide some clues. I got slammed in this draft as well. First time I went for a pitching team and I lost out on Clemens (1), Blyleven (3) and Carlton (6-7). Now I'm scrambling for a staff, which is why I added Fat Sid.

I usually try to nail a good fielding 2B and SS with my first 5 or so picks. In this case, I had Oz at 2 and Doran at 6-7. With this team, I also wanted to get a 1 in CF, so I had Van Slyke high. I also threw in Yount in the middle of my card b/c he sometimes goes undrafted b/c of position issues (if you don't get him, you often get a Dwayne Murphy or some other scrub CF) and got lucky - not by getting Yount - but by getting Eric Davis.

Who were your top 5? If you want to discuss offline, send me a PM.

[honestiago1]

You can never tell what folks are going to do, but the things that always work well in strat (and in real life, too, for the most part):

Fielding in the middle (if they can hit, great); Think too many folks shy away from 2's at SS and 2B. If you can get a middle IF that hits substantially better than a light-hitting 1, do it. This makes gold glove middle IF's who can smack it VERY valuable (IF you can get them).

Leadoff men: The three best (IMHO) are Raines, Henderson and Butler. They have usuable cards down the line, can field, steal bases, get on base and run. I think anyone else is a crap shoot (though I could certainly be forgetting someone -- non-traditional leadoffs like Downing, or even DwEvans).

Corners and LF: It'd be nice to have hoovers here, but not necessary. This is where you stick those big bats with iron gloves.

Bullpen: You can gamble a lot with .75 middle relievers, hoping to get the good year, then dumping them when they don't work out. I think a decent save man is a must -- UNLESS you somehow get a super rotation.

All this hogwash aside, it seems to me it's always better to go with a philosophy and stick to it. If you're going to go for "speed/pitching," do that. If it's Weaver-ball (wait for the 3-run HR), draft accordingly. I had a wishy-washy philosophy in my ATG II league, and was muddling. I dumped a bunch of high price sluggers, got another fantastic pitching arm, picked up a bunch of cheap hitters who smacked around .290, could field, bunt, H&R and run, and my team went from 2 games below .500 to 4 over. They may not stay there (my hitters are REALLY mediocre by league standards), but I know what my philosophy is ("we are what we are," as Greg Popovich always says of his supposedly boring Spurs team).

[Outta Leftfield]

The other point is that a very successful team can be built even if you have a bad draft. In fact, my best teams seem to have come out of drafts where I lost of lot of my top choices and had the top 1 or 2 waiver pick. On the other hand, the teams where I thought I had a great draft have often struggled. The worst draft I ever had has turned into the best team I ever had, at least in terms of WL percentage (it's still playing.)

The compensation for a bad draft is a high waiver pick and that can be important. A well constructed waiver list, plus an aggressive approach to the FA table, can turn chopped liver into a pretty good team. If I'm not picking first in waivers, I try to look at the needs of the teams ahead of me, then place high on my own list players who are likely to still be there when I draft. I've picked up players like Ripken, Dawson, Valenzuela, Rice, Strawberry, K. Hernandez, Singleton and D. Martinez during waivers and they've come up huge for me. So don't despair if you have a bad draft. Your best team could be on its way.