When to take a chance on "used" free agents?

[voovits]

This question is kind of an extension to the thread about having enough patience players. I'm curious when you do or don't consider picking up a free agent that has previously been dropped by someone else.

For example, in the 60 mil league I am in, I am in desperate need of pitching, so at the expense of my offense I freed up some cash.
The most attractive free agent at my budget was Dave Stieb. He is 0-2 through only 12.1 innings with an ERA/WHIP 6.56/1.46
Normally, I would not hesitate in giving him a chance, but I noticed that he was dropped by a highly rated manager. That got me second guessing whether I should try to get him or not.
I looked at his 2 games started and there is no injury to give out information, so it just comes down to L/R splits, and even that is not a guarantee at 12.1 IP. I never did check the L/R splits, too much work. Anyway if FletchGriswold cares to enlighten me as to why he was dropped, I wouldn't complain. =) I already decided to pick him up and take a chance.

The point of this question though, is when do you not bother to even consider picking up a free agent (assuming no injury has been revealed)?
Do you go strictly on number of at bats/innings? How much does the reputation of the manager come into play?

Just curious as to what others think.

[gutter huggers]

I think it depends on how desperate you are. If you are falling, in the standings, look for the one in five chance. Otherwise, wait.

I saw a weird thing. In my 80's league, Carew was dropped, hitting .266, after 57 games. The Over C, the master of the 80's snapped him up, the card has hit .313, over the last 59 games.

I'm thinking, use the DH spot, to experiment with cards. You want to look at cards, with the 1 in 5 chance, of a great season. Rudy Law, would be a great example. Poor defense, but, the odd chance, on a great card.

If the team starts great, use the DH spot, to look for a bargain.

I've seen players do it with pitchers, especially with the experienced managers. They play a .75 card, and drop, if it doesn't go well right of the gate.

You would think the DH spot, should have a dominate hitter, but I am thinking, just play with it. Look for a bargain player there, look for extremes in OPS, at the .75 level, and L/R matchups. Play the card, and maybe give up a few wins. It's where you end up, not where you start.
If you don't get the magic card, so, what? You are only going to lose a couple of games in the search.

I'm saying, use the DH spot, look at cheap cards, and just drop them immediately, if they don't produce. Look for the fluke card. But do it while drops are cheap.

Good Luck.

[Jimmy_C]

[quote:c56ff57b6e]The point of this question though, is when do you not bother to even consider picking up a free agent (assuming no injury has been revealed)?
Do you go strictly on number of at bats/innings? How much does the reputation of the manager come into play?
[/quote:c56ff57b6e]

Just guessing but I'd say Fletch probably dropped Stieb because he saw Lefty hitters beating him up. That would be a good indication it was his '86 card. But no read is dead accurate without the injury. In this case with only 2 starts, I wouldn't be afraid to put him on the team and try him out. But keep an eye on the splits.

As far as picking up guys that experienced managers drop...Fletch didn't win close to 12,000 games without learning something about the cards. :D

[FletchGriswold]

Thanks Jimmy -

Without an injury reveal - there's no guarantees. I've held on to cards that I swore were playing a certain season, and the reveal at the end of the year showed a different one. There are so many factors in this game, that sometimes the cards just can't play out to their potential at times.

With that said, dropping Stieb after two schilackings, was almost a habitual move. In 149 seasons of BTT80's, I've had Stieb on at least 15-20 teams. I think he finished a season maybe twice :shock:

I vented about this on the other thread regarding the question if certain players play certain years more often than others. I NEVER get a good year from Stieb.

So, yes - it may have been a premature move...but I wasn't going to go through the torture of another lobsided loss with him on the hill. Him & I just don't seem to get along.

(But I'm pretty sure it was his bad year :D )

[canauscot]

I would be less willing to pick up a dropped player from an experienced manager. I'd have to do the research. That said, there are some players that I wouldn't be so worried about. If Jack Clark is right for your team (or Downing, Lynn, Jody Davis) why worry too much about what year it is.

[Semper Gumby]

My angle has been to target / monitor specific player cards during the season.

When he comes available regardless of who dropped him, I have already calculated the upside and downside of moving on the player especially if he can improve my overall defense.

Otherwise, you spend too much time dicking around with the box scores seeing what he hit or didn't hit.

:D

[voovits]

After re-reading the topic about players being more likely to have certain seasons, I am now afraid of having Stieb, he is already cursed from the roster he was on. =)

I normally put a very heavy weight on the manager who drops the player, but in my case, being desperate for pitching and having reasonable success with him in the past, I took a chance.
I do have a back-up plan (that is until my backup plan is picked up by someone else) if Stieb don't work out, which now I'm sure he won't.

[YountFan]

[quote:4162ae8695]I normally put a very heavy weight on the manager who drops the player[/quote:4162ae8695]
I am not sure that is a good policy, but 12 IP is not enough. Pick him up, it is only money

[Panzer ace]

The smaller the statistical sample...the bigger the chance the other manager made a mistake.

[FletchGriswold]

Beware of the curse of Dave Stieb :wink: